I want to thank Seth Lugo for cashing in his under 6.5 hits allowed prop on Wednesday because without it that could've been the most embarrassing night in my betting career. Not only did Albert Suarez not record the win, but the Baltimore Orioles lost to the Chicago White Sox outright. Then there was the worst prop bet of all time, Spencer Arrighetti over 5.5 strikeouts. Arrighetti finished with 0 strikeouts, 3 walks, 6 hits, and 9 earned runs in less than a full inning. This was after only allowing 7 earned runs throughout all of August.
Wednesday was an unmitigated disaster. Luckily there is always a new and fresh day with more props to bet on. After glancing through the long list of potential player props, here are the best three to get the bankroll going up for the weekend.
Framber Valdez 5+ Hits Allowed (-180)
The Arizona Diamondbacks are only 5.5 games back from first place in the Los Angeles Dodgers Invitational better known as the NL West. They are 4-6 in their last 10, but they have a firm grasp of at least a wild-card spot. They take on the juggernauts of the AL over the past several years, the Houston Astros with Framber Valdez on the mound tonight.
Valdez has been very good over the past couple of months with a 2.25 ERA over the last two months. However, I want to fade Valdez against this D-Backs lineup. The one thing the Diamondbacks do well this season is hit left-handed pitchers. They currently own the top spot in MLB in terms of AVG and hits against lefties. Furthermore, they have the best BABIP against lefties as well.
Despite the 4-6 record in their last 10 games, the Diamondbacks are still hot with the bats. They are in the top three in hits, OPS, and AVG in the last 15 days. Valdez is having a good season, but those Arizona batters are great at getting the ball in play against lefties. Play it safe and roll with the 5+ instead of the 5.5 line.
Cole Ragans 4+ Hits Allowed (-175)
The Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals are both in prime position to be in the playoffs this season with a wild-card spot, but still have a shot at the AL Central crown. The Twins get to face one of the best young pitchers in the game, Cole Ragans. However, Ragans has floundered to a certain degree over the past month. In August, Ragans had a 3.82 ERA but did have an OBA of .192.
The Twins have some success on lefties and Ragans himself. They are in the top 10 in a multitude of categories against left-handed pitchers, such as hits, OPS, and AVG. The Twins have seen Ragans on the bump three times this season. In those three starts, Ragans was able to finish with a quality start but was still susceptible to allowing hits.
Ragans allowed 5+ hits in each of those three starts, but after Wednesday's debacle, I decided to play it safe. There is a chance for Ragans to find his groove and pitch a great game, but he can still allow those 4 hits amid a potential gem.
Matthew Boyd Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-160)
The Cleveland Guardians have pushed out Matthew Boyd for a few starts now and they have surprisingly gone well. Boyd had a tumultuous time with the Detroit Tigers. The best ERA Boyd accumulated during his time in Detroit was 3.89 in 2021. Now he is trying to find new life in Cleveland where he has not allowed this over in 4 starts.
Granted he has found some success thus far, but I think that might end tonight in LA when they face the Dodgers. The Dodgers have All-Star hitters everywhere in the lineup. That has led them to become one of the best teams in all of baseball. The Dodgers are another great hitting team against lefties. They are in the top three in AVG, OPS, and wOBA against lefties.
Boyd has the arc that might lead to becoming a journeyman, innings-eater type of pitcher. The Dodgers could easily push this over within the first couple of innings. Their lineup is very overpowering and Boyd has never shown the ability to manage lineups such as the one the Dodgers have. I am comfortably taking the over and expecting the Dodgers to light up Boyd from start to finish.
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