Friday was another disappointing showing. We went 1-2 and the losses were not even close. Framber Valdez was the second coming of Randy Johnson on the mound and Matthew Boyd somehow neutralized the Los Angeles Dodgers. Sometimes in betting the data looks good, but sports are too unpredictable.
The slate today is minimal, but there are some gems to be found. I look a few plays that I think can get us back on the positive side of things. Here are the three plays to start the week in the green.
Walker Buehler Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-145)
The Los Angeles Dodgers are the current favorites to win the World Series and for good reason. However, there are some concerns on this team. One of which is starting rotation. They have a few guys that have been hurt for most of the season, but Walker Buehler is someone that has been dealing with these issues for years.
Buehler has had to endure two Tommy John Surgeries and is still trying to regain is Cy Young form. This season is a struggle for Buehler, as he has 5.67 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. He has been solid at home with a 3.94 ERA, but his OBA is .279, which is where I want to fade him.
He faces the Chicago Cubs, who over the course of the last 15 days have improved their hitting. They have the 4th-best AVG and best BABIP in that span. The Cubs are on a little bit of a roll offensively, which screams trouble for Buehler. I like the line at 4.5 and makes me comfortable taking the over.
Cade Povich Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-165)
This line has the potential of bumping up to 3.5 earned runs allowed, so please get this while you can. Cade Povich of the Baltimore Orioles might not be a major league pitcher, at least on the road. Povich has an OBA of .333 and ERA at 12.56 in 4 road starts. Yes, you read a 12.56 ERA. That is a major contrast to his 3.60 ERA at home. He is a totally different pitcher on the road compared to at home.
He goes to play at Fenway in Boston, which is the second friendliest hitter ballpark over the last three years. The Red Sox are top 10 in AVG, wRC, BABIP, and SLG in their home ballpark. This might be a nightmare matchup for Povich, but he has faced them before and only allowed 2 earned runs; granted the start was in Baltimore.
The one struggle for the Boston bats is they are prone to strikeouts. They are in the top 3 in K%, but Povich is not a strikeout pitcher, as he is in the 11th percentile in K%. Furthermore, Povich is prone to allowed a lot of barrels, as he is 16th percentile in barrel%. The Red Sox are in the top 8 in barrel%.
All signs point towards to a bad start for Povich. The Red Sox have faced him and seen his pitching repertoire. 2.5 earned runs is light for Povich in a road start. Take the over and expect some Red Sox home runs, hopefully early.
Reid Detmers Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)
This play might be a little bit of a scary play, but I see the vision. Reid Detmers was struggling throughout the season and was ultimately sent down to the minors. Detmers returned to the team in the beginning of September and looked like a new pitcher.
Detmers faced an elite Dodgers lineup and managed to only allow 3 hits, 2 earned runs, and garnered 10 strikeouts. He tries to keep that momentum when he faces the Minnesota Twins on the road. The Twins are in a tailspin right now. They hold the final spot in the AL Wild Card, but there are a few teams nipping at their heels.
The Twins over the last 15 days are in the bottom 3 of AVG, OPS, and K%. Detmers is coming off a 10-strikeout day against a better and more potent lineup. The Twins are just not the same team we saw earlier in the season and it shows. This is a scary play with backing the Angeles in any capacity. However, I think with the Twins struggling to this extend and Detmers maybe finding himself can be the deciding factor for him to hit this over.
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