The weekend is over and it is time for a new week of sports betting to commence. Before we go over today's bets, we must look at the 2-1 Friday night showing. DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Jokic were wagons and hit their prop with ease. However, Dennis Schroder was not the right call. I might have tried to force the issue with a different look, but it simply did not click. Today, I will look at the consistent players and go from there. No more getting cute. Let's start the week in the green with these three props.
Donovan Mitchell 25+ Points (-170)
I chose this same prop last week, and it missed by 1 point. Donovan Mitchell is capable of scoring in bunches, but it depends on how close the game is. The Cleveland Cavaliers are 7-0 and steamrolling teams. The Cavs currently hold a +14.7 point differential. There have been games where Mitchell has played less than 30 minutes. Luckily, they are playing in desperate need of a win and will pull out all the stops to taste victory.
The Milwaukee Bucks are in a tailspin right now. Despite having Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, the Bucks are 1-5. They have one of the worst defenses in the league, as they are towards the bottom in both defensive rating and opponent's PPG. They also allow the 2nd-most PPG to opposing shooting guards this season. The Bucks just played this same Cavs team a few nights ago and Mitchell posted 30 points, including the game-winner.
This all comes down to if the Bucks come out and keep the game close. If the game is within reach for the Bucks, expect Mitchell to go into superstar mode and score at will against a defense that is struggling.
Fred VanVleet Under 16.5 Points (-125)
The Houston Rockets have a lot of promise for the future. They have tons of young talent on the roster, including Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green. They have playoff aspirations this season and want to build off a potentially successful season into a title-contending feature. However, Fred VanVleet might be holding any current plans back.
The veteran point guard has been putrid thus far this season. VanVleet is averaging 12.3 PPG and 5.7 APG on 28.3% shooting from three and 28.2% shooting from the field in total. He is also averaging almost 40 MPG, which is not substantial with this level of production. The Rockets have an issue right now when he is on the court. They are +16.7 points better when he is off the court compared to the -1.0 points when he is on the court.
The New York Knicks will most likely hunt him on defense and let him shoot terrible threes on offense. The Knicks' defense is starting to pick up the intensity after that beatdown they took from the Boston Celtics on opening night. VanVleet has only surpassed this total in one game this year. I cannot see him shooting his way out of this slump against the Knicks. This is one player I truly want to fade until he rights the ship.
Christian Braun Over 12.5 Points (-125)
Christian Braun has been extremely impressive as the new starting shooting guard for the Denver Nuggets after they lost Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in the offseason. Braun has stepped up in his increased role and is averaging 14.5 PPG, which is a 7-point increase from last season. Now he might be needed to score a little bit more with Jamal Murray out with a concussion.
The Nuggets are thin in terms of depth with the worst scoring bench in the NBA. Braun is more than just an athletic defender now, which is perfect for a depleted Nuggets roster. Braun has hit this prop in four of the first six games. He also hit this line when he scored 17 points against this same Toronto Raptors team last week.
The Raptors own a top 5 pace, while simultaneously ranking dead-last in opponent's PPG. The Nuggets' starting lineup should be able to score at will and that bodes well for Braun on cuts or corner 3s. This line is going to be low for the sake of not knowing if Braun can keep it up. I do not want to find out without trying to profit off of this hot start. This prop is a little risky, but I want to test out the improved Braun.
NBA Record: 11-7
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