The American Express Tournament (AMEX) kicks off tomorrow, and as always, this unique and unpredictable event promises a lot of excitement. While the betting landscape can be challenging for this tournament, we've broken down the key elements to help you find value and make informed picks. Here's everything you need to know about this desert shootout, the field, the odds, and our outright bets.
A Weird Yet Intriguing Tournament
The AMEX is unlike most PGA events, and its quirks make it both challenging and exciting for bettors:
Format: The tournament features a 54-hole cut with three different courses in rotation from Thursday to Saturday. The Pete Dye Stadium Course, known for its strategic design and water hazards, will host the final round on Sunday.
Location: Set in the picturesque Coachella Valley of California—essentially a desert oasis—the tournament offers a stark visual contrast with lush fairways surrounded by arid landscapes.
Scoring: Expect fireworks on the scorecard. Vegas projects the winning score to hover around -28.5, thanks to large greens, easy pin locations, and relatively short yardages.
While these factors make the tournament a joy to watch, they also turn it into a betting minefield. The AMEX has a history of surprise winners, with four of the last six champions coming from triple-digit odds, including last year's shocking victory by amateur Nick Dunlap, who entered at 500-1.
Key Stats to Watch
With birdies galore and wide-open scoring conditions, here are the critical metrics to focus on:
Strokes Gained: Approach: Precision on approach shots is crucial to setting up birdie opportunities on these large greens.
Birdies or Better: Given the low scoring, players who consistently make birdies (or better) will rise to the top.
Par 4 and Par 5 Scoring: Scoring efficiency on these holes often separates the contenders from the pack.
Strokes Gained: Putting: With so many birdie chances, the ability to drain putts will be decisive.
Another vital trend: 15 of the last 17 winners played at least one of the two Hawaii events (the Sentry or Sony Open) before coming to the AMEX, suggesting form and familiarity with early-season conditions play a significant role.
The Field and Odds
This year’s field includes a mix of top-tier talent and rising stars. Here are some notable players and their outright odds via DraftKings:
Justin Thomas (+1200)
Sunjae Im (+1400)
Sam Burns (+1600)
Patrick Cantlay (+1800)
Tony Finau (+2200)
Tom Kim (+2800)
Wyndham Clark (+3000)
Jason Day (+6500)
Rickie Fowler (+8000)
As always, watch out for long shots. The history of the AMEX proves that anything can happen!
Outright Bets
While placement bets are tempting, the volatility of this tournament makes outright bets the only plays worth considering. Here are my top picks:
Sunjae Im (+1400): Im has placed inside of the Top 25 the last 5 seasons at the AMEX including 3 Top 12 finishes. He finished 3rd in the Sentry earlier this year, is 2nd in Birdie or better, and 10th in SG: Putting. Im is going to be by top dog this week.
Cameron Young (+3500): Young doesn't have the greatest tournament history at the AMEX but he has been playing lights out so far this year. He finished 8th at the Sentry as is Top 10 in putting and birdies or better. Watch for him to go low this week.
Patrick Fishburn (+5500): I'd be lying if I knew who this was, but he played great at the Sony finishing 6th and is 9th this year in strokes gained putting. He also has a good course fit according to PGA and is 30th in the birdies or better statistic.
Jhonattan Vegas (+7000): According to PGA, Vegas has one of the best course fits for this tournament. He also had a great showing at the Sentry where he finished 4th, and he ranks 3rd in Birdies or Better, so going low is something Vegas is more than capable of doing.
Adam Schenk (+17,000): With the history of large dogs winning recently, I have to add a crazy longshot, and Adam is my guy. The odds are way too long for a guy that finished 6th at the Sony, is 8th in Strokes Gained Putting, and is 51st in Birdies or better. Let's go Schenk!
Join the Fun!
Looking to get in on the action? Consider these:
DFS Contests: DraftKings has exciting AMEX tournaments with massive prize pools.
Betting Pools: Join our AMEX Tournament Pool on Splash Sports!
Fantasy and Prop Entries: Sleeper and Underdog Fantasy offer great props for the Tournament!
Live Betting: With the multi-course setup, live odds can provide unique opportunities.
The American Express Tournament promises thrills and unpredictability. With the right strategy and a touch of luck, this week could deliver both entertainment and profit. Good luck, and enjoy the action!
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