Welcome to Premier League Soccer Best Bets, where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matches, providing quality content in a way that is accessible to new and old fans alike.
Recap:
Matchweek 32 of the EPL season contained quite a bit of drama and excitement. With only 6 matches to go, things are really heating up across the Premier League table, with exciting storylines in the title race, the race for the European competition places, and in the relegation battle.
In the title race, Man City and Arsenal won their road matches with relative ease on Saturday, putting all the pressure on Liverpool away at Manchester United on Sunday. This matchup has a great deal of history and did not disappoint this time, ending in an exciting 2-2 draw. Liverpool dominated the match (3.67 expected goals to United’s .70 xG) but a wonderful strike from Kobbie Mainoo put United 2-1 up before a Mo Salah penalty leveled for Liverpool.
Aston Villa drew 3-3 with Brentford and Spurs beat Nottingham Forest, taking further advantage on 4th place. In the relegation fight, Luton got a crucial win against Bournemouth thanks to a late goal, bringing them level on points with Nottingham in 17th place. Everton were given another 2-point deduction for financial fair play violations, leaving them in 16th, only 2 points above the relegation zone.
For our bets, we finally found the win column again, going 2-1 on the main bets. Our first two, (Newcastle to win either half -130 and West Ham to win either half -130) each cashed as those clubs won their matches outright. Our third bet (Spurs and Chelsea each to win) lost as Chelsea again had a shocking result against last-place Sheffield United.
Our bonus bet of Mac Allister to score did not hit and our Around the Grounds (non-EPL bets) didn’t do so hot either, going 1-4, only cashing Roma +110.
Upcoming Matches:
This weekend brings us a full slate of matches, including a match on Monday. An interesting bit about this matchweek is that it is sandwiched between two midweek European knockout matches for certain clubs. Manchester City and Arsenal just played thrilling matches in the Champions League against Real Madrid and Bayern Munich, respectively, and will play the return matches in the middle of this upcoming week. Liverpool and West Ham both played in the Europa League on Thursday, each getting thumped by their opponent, and Aston Villa won their Europa Conference League match Thursday.
What this means is that this weekend is primed for rotation and resting of players. Liverpool looked as though they attempted to rest their players in the Europa League and paid for it, signaling an intent to prioritize the Premier League. Arsenal and Aston Villa each put out strong squads for their European matches and now play one another on Sunday, which should make for an interesting match.
Let’s get to some bets.
Pick #1: Manchester United to Win Either Half -135 (April 13, 2024; 12:30 p.m. EST):
It worked well for us last week, so I’m going back to another “to win either half” bet. I’m backing Manchester United again on the road at Bournemouth.
Bournemouth were a team in decent form prior to their loss at the weekend to Luton Town, going 4-1-0 in their 5 matches prior to that game. However, most of those matches required a goal in the final 10-20 minutes to get the win or draw. Further, in their last 10 matches they’ve scored 15 goals, but only 1 of those was a first half goal.
Manchester United are still on a bit of a rollercoaster this season as far as form. However, they’ve scored at least one goal in every match they’ve played since December 23. They may have only secured a draw against Liverpool on Sunday, but it feels more like a win for United and a loss for Liverpool, so I anticipate United will look to build on that with a good result away from home.
Bonus: I also like Manchester United Moneyline +175.
Pick #2: Fulham to Win Either Half -120 (April 14, 2024; 9:00 a.m. EST):
Last week I backed West Ham to win either half on the road and they managed to get there, but now I’m fading them at home and going with Fulham to win either half. Just looking at the last two Premier League matches these sides played, West Ham got a win on the road and Fulham a loss at home. I think this may help boost the odds and don’t believe this tells the full story.
Fulham sit pretty comfortably in the middle of the table and have had some solid matches up until late. But for their blank against Newcastle, however, they’re still managing to score goals with Rodrigo Muniz bagging 8 since February 3.
West Ham played Bayer Leverkusen on Thursday in the Europa League and were dominated, having .2 xG, 27% possession, and only 1 shot. West Ham are a counterattacking team, so this makes some sense. However, West Ham have been outperforming their expected goals whereas Fulham have been underperforming. So long as Fulham capitalize on their chances, I think they’ll manage to win either half, even if not the game outright.
Bonus: Looking for a player prop? I like Rodrigo Muniz to Score or Assist +110.
Pick #3: Chelsea Moneyline -140 (April 15, 2024; 3:00 p.m. EST):
Chelsea have been extremely frustrating this season and I am thankful to not be a Chelsea fan. Despite this, they’re now unbeaten in 7 matches across all competitions. The draws against Burnley and Sheffield, however, were games which Chelsea should have won, hence the frustration. Chelsea also have had a string of injury woes, which continues into this weekend.
They now host Everton, who have won their last match against Burnley 1-0. Everton just received another 2-point deduction in the standings due to breaches of the financial fair play rules, leaving them struggling near the bottom. Although I’ve faded Everton before and they’ve managed to foil me by getting a draw, they haven’t won a match on the road since December.
I anticipate Chelsea will bounce back from their draw at Sheffield and get the better of struggling Everton.
Bonus Bets: There’s a saying in the Fantasy Premier League community, known as the “Gandhi Rule,” where you never back the early kickoff. Out of respect for the rule, I didn’t write about the early kickoff this week between Newcastle and Spurs. However, I like quite a few bets in that match and will be on Tottenham moneyline +130, as well as dabbling in player props with Brennan Johnson to score or assist +130 and Timo Werner to score or assist +120.
Around the Grounds:
- Real Madrid ML -135 (Spain; La Liga)
- Barcelona ML -115 (Spain; La Liga)
- Juventus ML +115 (Italy; Serie A)
- Fluminense ML -105 (Brazil; Serie A)
- Roma ML +120 (Italy; Serie A)
Comments