Welcome to Premier League Soccer Best Bets, where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matches, providing quality content in a way that is accessible to new and old fans alike.
Recap:
Matchweek 33 was a massive week across the EPL. With only 5 matchweeks to go, we are seemingly in store for a highly-climactic end to the season. Unlike traditional American sports, there is no playoff and the standings are determined by points accumulated throughout the season.
The title race this season is unlike one we’ve seen in a while, with 3 teams vying for the top spot. This weekend, Manchester City took a big step forward, easily beating Luton Town 5-1 on Saturday. However, Liverpool and Arsenal failed to keep the pressure on, losing 0-1 to Crystal Palace and 0-2 to Aston Villa, respectively. Man City now lead the league with 73 points, with Arsenal and Liverpool in 2nd and 3rd on 71 points, who will each be hoping City drop points in the next 5 matchweeks rather than running away with the title.
The relegation battle is still tight, with positions 16-18 being separated by only 2 points in the table. Aston Villa leapfrogged Tottenham into 4th by beating Arsenal, while Tottenham got demolished by Newcastle 4-0.
We finally got our first 3-0 sweep for the main bets, cashing Man U to win either half -135, Fulham to win either half -120, and Chelsea moneyline -140. Our bonus bets weren’t as great, as my predictions for Tottenham were completely wrong, United didn’t win outright, and, although Fulham did well and got two goals, Muniz failed to score or assist on either.
Around the grounds went 2-2-1, cashing Real Madrid and Barcelona and losing Juventus and Fluminense. Roma pushed after the game was abandoned late in the match while tied 1-1.
Upcoming Matches:
This matchweek is a fun one, as many clubs are playing make-up matches from earlier postponements, as well as working around the FA Cup matches taking place this weekend. Tottenham won’t play at all this weekend and many clubs will play two matches over the course of the weekend and upcoming midweek. My bets for this article will focus on the weekend, with a potential part 2 to follow before the games at midweek.
Let’s get to some bets for the weekend.
Pick #1: Burnley Moneyline +150 (April 20, 2024; 10:00 a.m. EST):
This week is pivotal for the run in to the end of the season with clubs fighting to win the league, secure European competition for next season, to avoid relegation to the second tier, and win other competitions. I’m using that to drive many of my bets this weekend.
Sheffield United, the opposition, are winless in 8 matches and sit at the bottom of the league with 16 points. They have one clean sheet in the EPL this season in 32 matches. They average only 35% possession, although they are at home.
Burnley sit in 19th with 20 points, 5 behind Luton and 6 behind Nottingham Forest. Two good results could potentially change their season. And with tough games ahead, culminating in a match against Nottingham Forest, Burnley will need this result to have a realistic hope of survival.
The same could be said about Sheffield, who have a similar remaining schedule to Burnley, but Burnley have beat Sheffield in their last 3 meetings, every match with Vincent Kompany coaching Burnley
Play it Safe: Want to play it a little safer? Try Burnley to Win Either Half -145.
Pick #2: Crystal Palace Moneyline +105 (April 21, 2024; 10:00 a.m. EST):
Last week we faded West Ham successfully and will be seeking to do the same here.
West Ham have just gone out of the Europa League at the hands of Bayer Leverkusen, who gave them a tough two matches, which sandwiched last weekend’s loss at home to Fulham. They haven’t been particularly great at home as of late, despite sitting in 8th.
Although they can compete for European places with a couple of good results, I anticipate a tired squad that will struggle to absorb pressure all match. And with big matches against Liverpool, Chelsea, and Man City in the run in, they’ll have a tough end to the season.
Crystal Palace are mid-table and seem relatively safe, although a few bad results could put them in the relegation conversation. I like the way they’ve been playing under their new coach and they should be at full attacking threat for this match.
Bonus: Looking for a player prop? I like Michael Olise to Score or Assist +130.
Pick #3: 2-Leg Parlay: Arsenal Moneyline and Liverpool Moneyline +105 (April 20, 2024; 2:30 p.m. EST and April 21, 2024; 11:30 a.m. EST):
This one is relatively simple. Arsenal just lost to Aston Villa in the EPL and then got knocked out of the Champions League to Bayern Munich. If they lose this weekend, or even draw, and Man City get a win, Arsenal will quickly see their title hopes dissipate. Frankly, they need this in order to stay in the title race.
Liverpool are similar, they lost to Crystal Palace and then got knocked out of the Europa League to Atalanta, thanks primarily to a disastrous first leg at home.
Each of these clubs now are solely focusing on the EPL, while City still are in the FA Cup. All three title contenders were knocked out of European competition this week, so they’ll all be hungry to win.
Wolves and Fulham, the opposition, can be tough against the toughest opponents, but Fulham and Arsenal need the win and will put all their eggs in this basket.
Around the Grounds:
- Toronto FC Moneyline +135 (USA; MLS)
- Godoy Cruz Moneyline +150 (Argentina; Liga Profesional)
- Atletico Madrid Moneyline -115 (Spain; La Liga)
- Minnesota United Double Chance -130 (USA; MLS)
- River Plate Moneyline +115 (Argentina; Liga Profesional)
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