Welcome to Premier League Soccer Best Bets, where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matches, providing quality content in a way that is accessible to new and old fans alike.
Recap:
There are only two matchweeks left in this EPL season and is still primed for plenty of drama between now and the blow of the final whistle on May 19.
The title race remains on with Arsenal and Manchester City still battling hard. Arsenal will need Manchester City to lose or draw in order for them to lift the trophy, as Manchester City are only a point behind with a game-in-hand.
In the relegation battle, Nottingham Forest got an important win to keep them 3 points above Luton Town and the relegation zone.
Another exciting battle is between who will qualify for next year’s European Competitions, the Champions League, Europa League, and Conference League. Qualifying is a bit tricky, but the top 4 are guaranteed a Champions League place, with Europa and Conference League positions going to winners of English Cup (bracket-style knockout) competitions, falling to the next highest league finisher if the winner already qualified for Europe. Essentially, this means a race for the top 4, but also a race for the top 6-7 as well.
Personally, I’ve been on a bit of a cold streak in May. Our 3 main bets last week went 1-3, cashing Newcastle moneyline, but falling short on Tottenham to Win Either Half and Aston Villa Moneyline. Around the Grounds, we went 2-3, cashing Atletico Madrid and Toronto FC, while Barcelona, LAFC, and Colo Colo didn’t quite get the victory.
Upcoming Matches:
The big match this weekend is Manchester United hosting Arsenal on Sunday. Man City play at Fulham in the early game on Saturday, so if they don’t drop points to Fulham, it will be a must-win match for Arsenal against a struggling, but potentially scrappy, Manchester United.
I’m looking to snap this cold streak in May and here are my favorite bets for the weekend to make that happen:
Pick #1: 2-Leg Parlay: Tottenham Moneyline and Everton Moneyline -115 (May 11, 2024; 10:00 a.m. EST):
This Saturday morning I’m backing two of the favorites to get the win, Tottenham (against Burnley) and Everton (against Sheffield). Both sides are at home and are playing the two clubs sitting at the bottom of the EPL table.
Sheffield, Everton’s opponents, are already relegated to the second tier (called the Championship) for next season. They have lost their last 5 games and haven’t won any of their last 12 matches, with their last win coming on February 10.
On the other hand, Everton have been in solid form and have officially secured their safety from relegation. I anticipate they’ll stay on the upward trajectory and get a good win for their home fans.
Tottenham and Burnley is a bit scarier in the sense that Burnley are technically still fighting for survival and would need to win at Tottenham to stay in the hunt, while Tottenham have been on a run of poor form, losing their last 4.
However, Tottenham play at home and are at risk of potentially losing their Europa League spot for next season if they don’t pick up some points before the end of the season. And hosting Man City during the midweek, they’ll feel that Burnley at home is the perfect opportunity to pick up points before hosting the potential champions. I back Spurs to break their streak this weekend and get the victory.
Pick #2: Crystal Palace to Win Either Half -145 (May 11, 2024; 10:00 a.m. EST):
This has been one of my favorite bets since Oliver Glasner took over as the new Crystal Palace head coach. Their attacking play has been excellent, having not lost in their last 5 matches (winning 4) and outscoring their opponents 13-4 in that stretch, including wins against Liverpool, Newcastle, and Manchester United.
Wolves have felt rather stagnate as of late, with a record of 2-2-6 in their last 10 EPL matches. Hee-Chan Wang and Mattheus Cunha lead Wolves scoring charts with 12 and 11 goals, respectively, so there is danger if they both play. And with Wolves being at home, I am playing it a bit safer with CP to win either half.
Feeling confident? I will also be backing them to win outright, Crystal Palace Moneyline +145.
Pick #3: 2 Chelsea Moneyline +105 (April 11, 2024; 12:30 p.m. EST):
Chelsea have been on the rise and finally seem to be connecting through the likes of Palmer, Gallagher, and Jackson. In their last two matches, they’ve beat Tottenham and West Ham with a combined score of 7-0. To be fair, Chelsea’s away form has been poor, as they haven’t truly won on the road since February 12, but this Chelsea side now look set to challenge for European places if Newcastle or Spurs collapse.
Nottingham Forest have had some relatively poor results, as well as some relatively poor luck and controversy, leaving them in 17th, only 3 points above the “drop zone.” Nuno Espirito Santo is a defensive-minded manager who should look to “park the bus” in front of goal and seek to at least get a point in this match to help their cause before finishing the season at Burnley.
Nottingham will give it everything in defense, the question is whether Chelsea can finish their chances when they come.
Bonus: Looking for something to bet on the big match on Sunday? This will be the match to confirm whether Arsenal are truly title contenders. They’d still need City to drop points somewhere in order to finish as champions, but another large obstacle will be this match at Manchester United.
I am thinking this might be a game where Arsenal drop points and all but confirm the title for City. At the very least, I anticipate United may give them a scare, even if Arsenal do win in the end.
I will likely dabble in the potential upset or scare by going with United or Tie the 1st Half -105; United to Win Either Half +245; United or Tie +215.
Around the Grounds:
- Celtic Moneyline -110 (Scotland; Premiership)
- Anderlecht Moneyline +100 (Belgium; Jupiler Pro League)
- Santos Moneyline -145 (Brazil; Serie B)
- Godoy Cruz Moneyline -120 (Argentina; Liga Profesional)
- Bayer Leverkusen Moneyline -150 (Germany; Bundesliga)
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