Welcome to Premier League Soccer Best Bets, where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matches, providing quality content in a way that is accessible to new and old fans alike.
Recap:
As anticipated, this was a big weekend in the EPL title race, with Liverpool coming out of the weekend the happiest, having won their match against Brighton to take the top spot before the big match between Man City and Arsenal kicked off. And with a relatively lackluster 0-0 draw in that match, Liverpool retained the top spot, with Arsenal now in second and Man City in third.
Man City are likely disappointed to be in third, having failed to grasp the opportunity to take the lead at home. Elsewhere in the EPL, Chelsea fans had to endure another lackluster performance, having only managed a draw against Burnley, who had a 40th minute red card leave them with only 10-men for the rest of the match.
The only ones feeling worse than Chelsea fans might be anyone who followed my main bets this past week. Unfortunately, we had a sweep of losses, going 0-3 on our main bets (Fulham to win, Man U to win, and Man City to win). Remember that scene from Ted Lasso where they draw a bunch of matches in a row so their next opponent sends them Thai food? I should have picked up some Thai this weekend because all three of our main bets lost in a draw. There was quite a bit of late drama in both the Fulham and Man U match that almost got us wins, they couldn’t get it done in the area that counts, the scoresheet.
Everywhere else we did much better. Our bonus bets (Crystal Palace win/draw and 2 leg parlay of Spurs and Liverpool to win) each cashed, as did 4 out of 5 of our non-EPL bets, including AC Milan +145, Boca Juniors +105, and PSG +110, who ended up getting a 0-2 result while on the road and playing with 10 men for most of the game following a 40th minute red card.
Upcoming Matches:
This time of year the fixtures come thick and fast, so the next matchweek is already about to begin on Tuesday, April 2, 2024, with all 20 clubs playing between Tuesday and Thursday, then again on Saturday and Sunday. Let’s take a look at our best bets for the midweek:
Pick #1: Newcastle Moneyline +100 (April 2, 2024; 2:30 p.m. EST):
Newcastle have been unpredictable as of late with a mixed bag of results. They’ve had a few draws that should have been wins and a few losses against the “Big 6” clubs, as well as a narrow escape through in the FA Cup to a team in the lower division, only to lose 2-0 to Man City. They looked like they were about to have a third loss in 3 games across all competitions this past weekend against West Ham, being down 3-1 before clawing back a 4-3 victory. They’ll be without Anthony Gordon, which will be a blow, but I anticipate they’ll look to build on their win at home and beat Everton.
Everton’s form, on paper, is worse than I initially realized. Their last win came in the FA Cup on January 17, before losing in the next round to Luton Town. To get to their last win in the EPL, you have to go all the way back to December 16, a 2-0 win over Burnley. They’ve managed some draws in that period to keep them out of the relegation zone, but after losses on the road to Man United and then Bournemouth, I anticipate another road loss for Everton, before returning home to face Burnley again.
Bottom Line: Everton have only managed 1 win in their last 16 matches across all competitions and Newcastle have only failed to score once in 15 matches, so I’m backing Newcastle to score and get the win. Further, these clubs haven’t had a draw in their last 7 matches, so I’m hoping to keep the curse of the tie away this week.
Pick #2: Tottenham Moneyline +100 (April 2, 2024; 3:15 p.m. EST):
Speaking of breaking curses, I’m backing Tottenham to snap a bit of a curse and do something they haven’t done since 2019, beat West Ham on the road. West Ham have won their last two games against Spurs (a friendly last July and an EPL match in December), the only two games the sides have played since new coach Ange Postecoglou joined Spurs. I remember watching the friendly in July to get a sense of how Spurs would play under the new coach and, despite the loss, remember feeling more excited about watching Spurs than I had in quite a while.
In the December match, Spurs were without a key central defender (Micky van de Ven) and their most creative midfielder (James Maddison). Under “Big Ange,” Tottenham play a high defensive line and look to attack at the risk of being exposed at the back. West Ham thrive on the counterattack, which is why they’ve managed to get results at Spurs despite only having 25% possession and 28% possession in their last two meetings, with Spurs having a combined 43 shots (20 on target) to West Ham’s 16 (9 on target).
Spurs now have players back from injury and West Ham will be without goalkeeper Areola through injury, as well as Edson Alvarez through suspension. Paqueta has been in fine form, but Spurs should dominate the ball and, so long as they aren’t sloppy to the counter in defense, should be able to overwhelm West Ham with shots.
Bottom Line: Spurs need to keep winning on the run in to secure European competition next season and, although their system is perfect for West Ham’s style of play, I think Spurs will have finally figured out a plan for staying defensively strong.
Pick #3: Manchester United to Win or Draw -125 (April 4, 2024; 3:15 p.m. EST):
It’s hard to tell which of these sides looked worse this weekend between Chelsea and Man U.
United looked awful against Brentford, arguably the worst they’ve looked all year. They gave up 31 shots to Brentford before getting a late goal, only to have Brentford score immediately thereafter.
United is starting to find an identity as a counterattacking team and struggled to do that effectively against Brentford, who had 47% possession. Chelsea don’t exactly play with overwhelming possession under Pochettino, although they should look to play on the front foot and leave a few openings for United at the back.
Chelsea have only lost once in their last 9 games but that doesn’t tell the full story. Many of those draws or wins came down to Chelsea clawing back a late goal and making it much more difficult than it should have been for themselves. They had to get a 90th minute winner to beat Leeds (currently in the second division) in the FA Cup, came back to draw with Brentford thanks to a late goal, almost blew a lead to Leicester (currently in the second division) until Leicester got a red card and Chelsea managed two stoppage time goals to pad the scoreline. To cap it off, they just drew with 10-men Burnley at the weekend in a game they should have easily won.
I think this line is boosted due to the bad result for United and the fact they are playing at Stamford Bridge (Chelsea’s stadium) in London. With United hosting Liverpool Sunday, it may be easy to overlook the Chelsea game, but it could be critical to their hopes for European competition and I expect a bounce-back after the result at Brentford.
Feeling lucky? I’ll dabble with Man U Moneyline +240.
Around the Grounds (Non-EPL):
Juventus Moneyline -135 (Italy; Copa Italia)
Argentinos Juniors Moneyline +120 (South America; Copa Sudamericana)
Corinthians -125 (South America; Copa Sudamericana)
Club America +110 (North America; CONCACAF Champions Cup)
Colo Colo -120 (South America; Copa Libertadores)
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