Welcome to Premier League Soccer Best Bets, where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matches, providing quality content in a way that is accessible to new and old fans alike.
Recap:
I saw a stat recently about how the away side has not managed to win in the last 30 EPL matches (but for Spurs beating Villa) and that trend continued this week in somewhat spectacular fashion. Nottingham Forest had a big win this week over Fulham, Everton managed an important draw, and all 3 title contenders (Liverpool, Arsenal, and Man City) won their matches to keep that race tight.
No game was perhaps more thrilling than the final match between Chelsea and Manchester United. Chelsea started hot with 2 goals within the opening 20 minutes. Manchester United responded, getting 2 goals before the half and taking the lead in the second half. Manchester United held that lead until 99 minutes and 17 seconds, before conceding a penalty and then a losing goal less than 90 seconds later. The match set the record for the latest a team has been leading in a match and then has gone on to lose.
As someone who had bet on Manchester United to Win or Draw, I was crushed. I can’t remember the last time I’ve had a beat that bad. Sometimes betting on a low scoring game like soccer, especially a competitive league like the EPL, it can lend itself to single moments that change the match and lead to glory or heart break and, unfortunately, this heartbreak capped off a forgettable week for the EPL bets.
Our main bets (Newcastle ML; Tottenham ML; and Man U Win/Draw) all lost in a rather unfortunate fashion, with Newcastle leading 1-0 until giving away a penalty in the 88th minute, Tottenham grabbing an early lead only to draw 1-1, and the United game looking like a lock until a heartbreaking minute and a half. My curse of losing bets with draws seems set to continue.
Around the Grounds (non-EPL bets) did much better again, cashing Juventus ML-135, Argentinos Juniors ML +120, Club America ML +110, and Colo Colo ML -120, only losing on Corinthians -125.
Upcoming Matches:
This weekend brings us a relatively normal slate of weekend matches, kicking off at 7:30 a.m. EST on Saturday, April 6. The marquee match this weekend is Manchester United hosting Liverpool. These are the two most decorated clubs in all of England and, regardless of United’s current form, this should be an exciting match.
For our bets, we’re doing something a bit different. Since 5 of our last 6 main bets lost by getting a draw, this week we’ll be breaking that curse by picking a few different bets.
Pick #1: Newcastle to Win Either Half -130 (April 6, 2024; 10:00 a.m. EST):
I’m straying away from a traditional moneyline play on this one, hoping to avoid losing a bet on a draw again, so I’m going with Newcastle to Win Either Half, giving them two opportunities to win our bet, even if the final result ends in a loss. As I discussed a bit last week, Newcastle have been a bit up-and-down as far as form, but they have been scoring goals, only blanking once in 2024 in an FA Cup match with Man City.
They play Fulham on the road. Fulham looked great against Spurs a few weeks ago, barely managed a draw to Sheffield, then lost to Forest. To be fair, they’ve lost on the road and have looked solid at home, so they should give Newcastle some trouble, but all Newcastle will have to do is best them for one of the 45-minute periods.
Bottom Line: Giving the bet 2 chances to win based on an up-and-down Newcastle that has at least been scoring goals just about wherever they are.
Pick #2: West Ham to Win Either Half -130 (April 6, 2024; 10:00 a.m. EST):
Similarly, I am backing West Ham on the road to win either half against Wolves. Wolves haven’t kept a clean sheet in 5 matches, while West Ham have scored in each of their last 5.
West Ham not only looked dangerous on the counter against Spurs, but also looked strong enough in Defense to hold off Spurs. Although I don’t watch too many Wolves matches, my general sense of them is they tend to be a rather defensive team. However, they’ve been conceding goals as of late and I anticipate a West Ham to take advantage.
Bottom Line: I anticipate a low-scoring affair where all West Ham need is one moment to exploit a Wolves mistake.
Pick #3: 2-Leg Parlay – Spurs and Chelsea to Win -105 (April 7, 2024; 12:30 p.m. and 1:00 p.m. EST):
I’m going back to the well with my Tottenham Hotspurs this week. After a disappointing draw with West Ham on the road, they now take on Nottingham Forest at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Nottingham are struggling just a few points above the relegation zone thanks-in-part to a points deduction for breaching financial fair play rules. They’ve looked okay since that decision, managing some draws and a win in their last 3, including a solid win over Fulham. This is the outlier, however, and the attacking threat of Spurs should break them down at home.
Spurs are also feeling desperate to get into the top 4 following a disappointing draw, so they’ll be hungry to score goals and win in front of home fans.
I can’t believe I’m backing Chelsea after what they did to me this past week and after their form this season, but this logic is more about fading Sheffield United. Chelsea are coming off the back of a huge win against Manchester United and will look to keep that momentum going against the worst team in the league.
Bonus Bet: Looking for something to bet on the big match between Man U and Liverpool? I like Alexis Mac Allister to Score or Assist +175.
Around the Grounds:
AS Roma +110 (Italy; Serie A)
FC Copenhagen +130 (Denmark; Superligaen)
Young Boys +170 (Switzerland; Super League)
Borussia Dortmund +100 (Germany Bundesliga)
Minnesota United +115 (USA; MLS)
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