Prospects of Promise: Ateba Gautier

Credit to the UFC and Endeavor

With the UFC on a brief hiatus I figured I would potentially start up a new series discussing prospects in the UFC I'm keeping an eye on. Prospects of Promise will look at up and coming fighters as a discussion of their strengths, weaknesses, next matchup I want to see for them and why, along with a floor/ceiling comparison a la fantasy football style. March 29th this year we saw Gautier make a very impressive debut by steamrolling Jose Medina in round one. Is this smoke and mirrors? Or is this a new star in the making? Read below to see my take on this impressive fighter at 185 pounds.

STRENGTHS

An immediate strength of Gautier is his physical strength. Musculature and physical strength are always a contentious topic in combat sports discussion. Both polar extremes are absolute brain rot. From the buttscooting BJJ bandits who claim they could choke out a much stronger and larger opponent no problem to the brawn bullies who think they could just see red and take any fighter, the truth is truly in the middle. Ideally you want that strength and musculature along with the knowledge and technique to create a truly dangerous and capable fighter. Stop making it a false dichotomy, why not have both?

Gautier definitely has this strength and musculature. In fact in his fight with Glenn Williams I was concerned with how much it seemed he relied on this strength to try and get out of back mount and other disadvantageous grappling situations Williams subjected him to. While you can get away with explosive movements and raw power on the lower levels of pro MMA, this becomes more difficult in the UFC. Against Yu-Joe Lewis I was impressed to see him handily reverse Lewis on Lewis's takedown attempts. Unfortunately it was a lot of strength and taking advantage of the massive amount of blood he opened up on Lewis. If he can get the technique and knowledge to go along with this, I think his biggest flaw I will get to will be corrected.

The next strength of Gautier would be the power in his strikes. He's only went to decision in his young pro career twice and the opponents he's finished have been lucky to make it to round two. Every punch, kick, elbow, and knee is thrown with malice and his striking arsenal seems well rounded and Muay Thai in nature. This leads his style to be a tanky brawler but he is already showing signs of development in the patience of his game. In the Lewis fight he seemed rushed and in the Williams fight, his only pro loss, he gassed himself out early relying on strength to get out of bad positions in the grappling. The Medina fight he seemed methodical and walked Medina down calmly. He had a sense of urgency to finish but not to the degree he gassed and charged in recklessly like he would have done earlier in his career. This bodes well for his ability to be coached and corrected to continue improvement.

WEAKNESSES

The main concerns I have with Gautier now would be his gas tank and his grappling. They go hand in hand as I mentioned earlier when taken down or held against the fence he shows signs of knowing what to do but is too content to just outpower his opponent. Against Lewis even with blood everywhere and the mat being an ice rink as a result, he was still taken down pretty easily even as Lewis lost grips and footing constantly. This reliance on outpowering his opponent works until he meets someone stronger or more technical. If Gautier can develop a good sprawl and whizzer along with more defensive grappling tendencies, I think he will be a nightmare to deal with. He will also be able to conserve his energy and not gas as quickly relying on sudden and explosive movements to escape takedowns and control time. Any opponent that tries to stand and trade has to not be walked down and then finished. A striker with a strong chin could outpoint him in the future but for now his biggest test will come against an accomplished and strong grappler I feel.

WHAT'S NEXT?

I think Jack Hermansson would be a great next fight. Hermansson has been out over a year since outpointing Joe Pyfer and is not ranked currently. He presents a great combination of tendencies that would present Gautier with a reasonable challenge to accurately asses where Gautier fits in at middleweight. Hermansson is crafty with submissions and his grappling while also being mobile and elusive enough to coast to a decision potentially against Gautier. If Gautier could beat Hermansson in convincing fashion, this would be great for his stock. This is a realistic way to approach Gautier's development without feeding him cans or wolves too early. A win over Hermansson and next could be a shot at the top 15. Imagine Paulo Costa VS Gautier? Fireworks.

FLOOR MEETS CEILING

Floor fighter comparison: Abdul Razak Alhassan. If Gautier is unable to improve on his game and weaknesses he risks becoming Alhassan. A dangerous puncher but one dimensional and easily taken down or out struck. Alhassan had a lot of promise as well along with a Judo background but fighters quickly found out Alhassan hated being the nail and receiving the same pressure he gave out. If you could weather the onslaught you could beat Alhassan.

Ceiling fighter comparison: Francis Ngannou. Obvious reasons here but I would argue Gautier already looks way more technically sound and diverse in his striking than Ngannou ever did in the UFC. Francis fanatics be damned. Gautier has better movement for sure than early UFC Francis and kicks to go with elbows and knees. If he can learn defensive wrestling like Ngannou, he already has a blueprint for success from a fighter with a similar style and build to him. He will need to read from Francis's book if he is to contend with the challenges presented by fighters such as Chimaev, Nickal, De Ridder, and Hernandez.

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