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UFC 305-DFS Plays and Fades


TheGMReports Sports Betting Picks
Draft Kings

Real quick scoring overview: Fighters get .2 points for strikes and sig strikes, +0..03 pts/second of control time, 5 pts for TDs, 5 pts for reversals, and 10 pts for knockdowns. The earlier a fight ends, the more bonus points you receive. With this scoring, hesitant strikers that back up will single handedly sink your roster. I'm looking for wrestlers and guys with knockout power.


Every Lineup Fighter: Jairzinho Rozenstruik, $7,900, (-218)

Heavyweight is always primed for an early stoppage, and someone is going night-night in this fight. I would recommend jumping on a side of this fight in every lineup. Both sides are KO artist, but the way Tuivasa has been dominated in each of the last 4 fights, I can't see him beating a striker with the power that Rozenstruik has. While Tai will be a popular pick, as he is more publicly known and will be fighting at "home", Rozenstruik gives you an elite combination of price, ownership, and upside.


Value Fighter: Dricus Du Plessis, $7,700, (-105)

You don't often get champions at one of the lowest prices on the card but we're getting a gift here. Izzy is one dimensional, and if Dricus can get him to the ground, he can either work for the finish or win the round. The only way DDP doesn't pay off is if he gets knocked out early. Izzy showed how emotional he is for this fight at the press conference and DDP was cool as a cucumber. I love the value here.


Fade Fighter: Stewart Nicoll, $9,000, (-205)

The main pro-point for Stewart Nicoll is that this will be a "home" fight for the Aussie. The con list is much longer. Nicoll is one of the most expensive DFS fighters on this card despite never having fought in the UFC before. He's fighting a guy younger than him, with multiple fights in the UFC, and his only UFC loss coming from UFC superstar Tatsuro Taira. -205 gives Nicoll a 67%-win probability and at $9,000, he has to get the early finish in his UFC debut to pay off his roster price.


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