UFC Fight Night Luque VS: Dos Anjos takes place Saturday, August 12th, 2023 at 3PM CST. Starting with the prelims and working to the main card I will go over fights I think have good betting value and share predictions on outcomes. DraftKings is the source for all odds and be sure to watch the lines for any changes. Thank you for reading and supporting the content.
TERRANCE MCKINNEY VS: MIKE BREEDEN
Terrance has a record of 13-6 with a current UFC record of 3-3. He is 28 years old standing at 5'10" with a reach of 73.5". He is on a 2 fight losing streak in the UFC currently, having been finished by strikes and then a submission both coming in round 2 of the respective fights. Mike Breeden has a record of 10-5 with a current UFC record of 0-2. He is 34 years old standing at 5'10" with a reach of 70". He is also on a 2 fight losing streak in the UFC being finished by strikes in his debut then losing a unanimous decision. This fight will be at 155 pounds and will likely determine the fate of both men's UFC careers with both being strong cut candidates in the event of a loss for either man. Terrance is the -278 favorite to Mike's +225 underdog status. I think Terrance is a good company man and this fight is the UFC trying to give him a lay up. While he has been skidding, at least Terrance has beaten UFC caliber competition while Breeden has yet to win a fight in the UFC. KO/TKO has been 40% of losses for Breeden for a total of 2 losses in this manner while Terrance has 5 wins or 38% of total wins in this manner. I think Terrance starts the fight in his trademark pressure fighting style throwing with reckless abandon like he's double parked in a loading zone next to a fire hydrant and tries to end this early. I think he succeeds and gets a 1st round KO/TKO and at +140 for this method I like the value.
KHALIL ROUNTREE VS: CHRIS DAUKAUS
Khalil is 11-5 with a UFC record of 7-5. He is 33 years old standing at 6'1" with a reach of 74". He is on a 3 fight win streak in the UFC with 2 of those consisting of 2nd round finishes set up with his striking. Chris is 12-6 with a UFC record of 4-3. He is 33 years old standing at 6'3" with a reach of 76". He is on a 3 fight losing streak being finished by strikes in all 3 losses. Khalil has 64% of his wins for a total of 7 coming by KO/TKO with only 2 of his losses coming in this manner for 40% of his losses. Chris is a statistical anomaly having both 83% of his wins at 10 wins coming by KO/TKO while having 83% of his losses come by this same manner for 5 total losses by KO/TKO. Khalil is a -175 favorite to Chris as the +145 underdog and I can't disagree so I'm taking Khalil. No good value on him winning by KO/TKO unfortunately but it's damn near another layup for Khalil served up nicely and likely results in the end of the UFC run of Chris. Chris will also be substantially cutting weight as he moves down from 243 lbs to compete at 205 pounds where Khalil has spent the majority of his career already competing at 205 for an extended period of time. Chris had a promising heavyweight run in the UFC to start his career but it looks like his entire career could unfortunately end in the UFC this Saturday.
CUB SWANSON VS: HAKEEM DAWODU
Cub is a legend of MMA with a record of 28-13 standing at 18-12 during his UFC tenure. I include his WEC record before the UFC into this because WEC was bought by the UFC years ago and it's roster absorbed into the UFC where they included their WEC record into their UFC stats. Cub is 39 years old at 5'8" with a reach of 70". He is 1-2 in his last 3 being finished by strikes in 2 of those fights. Hakeem is 13-3-1 with a UFC record of 6-3. He is 32 years old at 5'8" with a reach of 72". He is also 1-2 in his last 3 but his 2 losses were both unanimous decisions. 54% of Hakeem's wins for a total of 7 have come by KO/TKO. Cub primarily loses by submission but I think Hakeem takes this by KO/TKO. Hakeem is the -225 favorite to Cub's +185 underdog status. +165 for Hakeem to win by KO/TKO is good value as this is primarily how he wins fights and Cub is an easy retirement candidate at 39 years old with a lot of miles and damage he's carried from an MMA career of over 19 years of competition. Cub's debut was 2004 and the chin and ability to take a punch doesn't get better with age. I feel bad for Cub being served up to hype a prospect again who's looking to regain momentum but I hope win or lose Cub retires. Cub will also be moving up from a hard cut to 135 to gain up to 145 where this fight will take place. Hakeem is used to fighting at 145 and has primarily competed here for the majority of his career and will have the size advantage.
VINCENTE LUQUE VS: RAFAEL DOS ANJOS
This is the main event of the evening at 170 lbs. Luque is 21-9-1 with a UFC record of 14-5. He is 31 years old standing at 5'11" with a reach of 76". He is 1-2 in his last 3 losing by strikes and a unanimous decision. Rafael is 32-14 with a UFC record of 21-12. He is 38 years old standing at 5'8" with a 70" reach. He is 2-1 in his last 3 with his loss coming by a strike finish. 52% of Luque's wins have come by KO/TKO for a total of 11 wins. Rafael doesn't have many losses in this manner but I think he gets a loss from Luque this way Saturday. Luque is the +100 underdog while Rafael is the -120 favorite. Luque by KO/TKO is a tempting +250 bet I'm taking this weekend. Luque is the younger fighter, he has height and reach advantage, and he doesn't have the miles and damage Rafael has. My only concern is Luque is coming off a year layoff where he was at one point diagnosed with a slight brain bleed that left his future in fighting in doubt. However, he has thankfully overcame this issue and passed all his medicals and physicals to get sanctioned to fight. Rafael has the better 3 fight record right now but Luque is a strong bounce back candidate.
THE RECORD SO FAR.....
Been a while since I updated this so there is catching up to do. Going into the Aspinall VS: Tybura card I was 9-11. After that card I improved marginally to 12-13 off my correct prediction and method for Joel Alvarez, correct on both for Paul Craig, and correct on both method and prediction for Nathaniel Wood. Molly and Tybura let me down on that card. UFC 291 was an incredible success on both fighter predictions and method of victory predictions. I predicted 11 fights but the Stephen Thompson and Michel Periera fight fell through leaving 10 fights behind. I went 8-2 on that card with the only blemishes being I was thankfully wrong about Derrick Lewis losing and Jan had a typical Jan fight and snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. I was right about method of victory on 3 of those fights for juicy payouts on Kevin Holland, Uros Medic, and Justin Gaethje. This improved my record to 20-15. Last weekend the Sandhagen VS: Font card and the Jake Paul Nate Diaz boxing match took place. I was right about method and fighter on 2 fights, Sean Woodson and Asu Almabaev. I was right about Cory and Jake winning just incorrect on the method and completely wrong about Jake Hadley and Jessica Andrade winning. Overall, my grand total over the course of doing this is now 24-17. I love doing this and thank you all for reading and supporting me. Check in on Youtube for more Bettor in Green content.
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