Another amazing UFC PPV has come and gone and we are left to pick up the pieces along with our jaws off the floor. This weekend, Saturday August 5th, 2023, Sandhagen VS: Font will take place. Prelim fights will start at 05:00 PM CST with the main card starting at 08:00 PM CST and unfortunately this will not be as entertaining as last weekend. Have no fear, if this isn't your speed the Jake Paul VS: Nate Diaz card will start at 08:00 PM CST on PPV also and will quickly depress you if you're feeling just a little too good about your weekend. Without further ado, let's go into the Sandhagen VS: Font card and the main event between Jake Paul and Nate Diaz in professional boxing.
ODE OSBOURNE VS: ASU ALMABAEV
DraftKings has Ode as a +160 to Asu as the -192 favorite and I can't disagree. I predict Asu to win by submission as 47% of his 17 wins have come by submission for a total of 8 submission victories. Asu is 17-2 and on a 13 fight win streak last losing in 2017. Granted this is his first UFC fight and this is Ode's 7th UFC fight but Ode has been spotty and Asu is riding a lot of momentum. Ode is 4-3 in the UFC for a total fight record of 12-5 and he is coming off a split decision victory back in February of this year and before that he was KOd in August last year. 40% of Ode's losses have come by submission for 2 losses and 40% of losses by KO/TKO for 2 losses. Brian Kelleher isn't known as a strong grappler and he handily caught Ode in a guillotine choke and I see Asu locking up another guillotine on Ode in this fight. Age won't factor into this fight as Ode is 31 and Asu 29, reach isn't available for Asu but he's 5'5" and Ode is 5'7" with a 72 inch reach presumably holding the advantage there. This fight is scheduled for men's 125 pound division the flyweights.
SEAN WOODSON VS: DENNIS BUZUKJA
Sean Woodson is 31 years old standing at 6'2" with a 79" reach. His record is 9-1-1 and his UFC fight record is 3-1-1 with 56% of his wins in his fight career coming by decision with 5 wins. Dennis is 25 years old standing at 5'9" with a 70.5" reach. His record is 11-2 and this is his UFC debut. 55% of his wins in his career have come by decision with 6 wins and 100% of his losses have come by decision with 2 losses. This fight is scheduled for men's 145 pounds the featherweight division and DraftKings has Sean as the -195 to Dennis's +160 underdog status. I'm taking Sean by unanimous decision as both men have won the majority of their fights in this manner and Sean has the height and reach advantage to pick apart Dennis and keep him at range. Dennis needs to try to grapple to negate that height and reach advantage otherwise Sean will control the pace and pick him apart comfortably. Sean should be in the driver's seat with this and Dennis will be playing into his game. Sean is coming off a draw August last year while Dennis is riding a 7 fight win streak coming from various regional promotions. Sean is a tough UFC debut for anyone and I see him playing spoiler for Dennis.
CODY DURDEN VS: JAKE HADLEY
At men's flyweight we have Cody Durden who is 15-4-1 at 32 years of age. He stands at 5'7" with a 67" reach and the majority of his wins at 6 come by way of KO/TKO. 75% of his losses at 3 have come by way of submission. He is on a 3 fight win streak in the UFC with one win by punches and the other two by unanimous decision. His UFC record is 4-2-1. Hadley is 10-1 at 27 years of age standing at 5'7" with a 70" reach advantage. 50% of his wins have come by submission at 5 wins and he has only been defeated by unanimous decision with his one loss in that manner being his only blemish. DraftKings has Hadley at -192 to Durden as the +160 dog. I'm going Hadley and DraftKings has a lot of interesting props and odds for Hadley by submission you can take. My favorite is just the generic Hadley wins by submission which as of Friday, August 4th is at a tantalizing +225 I'm going to hop on for that.
JESSICA ANDRADE VS: TATIANA SUAREZ
Andrade is 24-11 at 31 years of age. She stands at 5'1" with a 62" reach and has a UFC record standing at 15-9. The majority of her wins at 38% come by KO/TKO for 9 wins with submission wins close by at 33% standing at 8 wins. The majority of her losses at 45% have come by KO/TKO with those losses at 5. Andrade is on a two fight skid in the UFC being finished both times. Suarez is undefeated at 9-0 on a 5 fight win streak in the UFC. She is 32 years old standing at 5'5" with a 66" reach advantage. The majority of Suarez's wins have come by submission at 44% with 4 wins in that manner. DraftKings have Andrade at +295 to Suarez's -375 heavy favorite status. I'm bucking the trend here and at that value taking Andrade by KO/TKO. It seems like Andrade is on the decline on a 2 fight skid getting finished but I thought that about Derrick Lewis last weekend and got embarrassed. Suarez has been touted as a grappling phenom and sure thing in women's strawweight 115 lb division since her time on the Ultimate Fighter in 2016. Her biggest obstacle has been long periods of inactivity and medical issues that have dramatically slowed down her career. Before her win in February of this year she last fought in June of 2019 and twice in 2018 and only once in 2017. Suarez's game plan is unmistakable as she uses her wrestling to aggressively pursue takedowns and look for the sub or unanimous decision by tiring her opponents out. Andrade is physically the strongest fighter she will have ever faced and she has only been defeated by sub 3 times in the UFC with two of those back in 2015. Andrade also has grappling experience and submission knowledge herself and is good at aggressively defending takedown attempts using her physicality and strength. If Suarez has difficulty getting her grappling going this will give Andrade openings to find the strikes that Suarez won't have an answer for. If there is going to be an upset it will be on this fight and odds are too good to ignore. Andrade by KO/TKO is an insane +650 value right now I'm taking in a heartbeat.
CORY SANDHAGEN VS: ROB FONT
Cory is 31 years old with a record of 16-4. He stands at 5'11" with a 70" reach and is on a 2 fight win streak. He is 9-3 in the UFC and looking for 135 lb title contention in the bantamweight division. Rob Font is 36 years old and stands at 5'8" with a 71.5" reach advantage. His record is 20-6 with his UFC record standing at 10-5. Font is on a 1 fight win streak and before that was on a 2 fight skid by unanimous decision. Font has 45% of his wins which would be 9 coming by way of KO/TKO. Cory has 44% of his wins for 7 total coming by KO/TKO. This is going to be a striking affair and I see Cory taking it. Cory is -345 to Rob's +275 but Cory by KO/TKO is a juicy +165 right now I will gladly take. Rob is a great striker but I think Cory is just a little better in every aspect of striking and has more tools at his disposal including kicks that will frustrate Rob. Both men win the majority of the time by KO/TKO so I don't see this fight going the distance as Cory's punches, elbows, and kicks will overwhelm Font.
JAKE PAUL VS: NATE DIAZ IN PRO BOXING
This fight is stupid but here we are, I have to discuss it. This is not through the UFC, this is strictly a pro boxing match so in my eyes Nate is at a huge disadvantage. Jake is younger at 26 to Nate's 38 years of age. Jake is 6'0" while Nate is 6'1" and both have a 76" reach. Nate has an extensive MMA history but no pro boxing bouts while Jake has fought in 7 pro boxing fights. Jake lost a split decision in his last outing but before that he was unbeaten in boxing. Nate's prime was in 2016, it's been a while and he's only gotten older and taken more damage from MMA in that time. This fight would have been great back then but now it's sad. Nate does have underrated boxing for MMA and has trained extensively under legend Richard Perez but he's not a full time boxer like Jake. Nate has never been completely knocked out cold in his combat sports career but I fear that happens here. The chin has to deteriorate at some point in combat sports and when it does it's ugly. Nate was able to use his extensive grappling and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu skills in MMA when he was rocked or needed to regain composure by tying his opponent up, he won't have those skills in this boxing match to fall on. His face is covered with scar tissue from his long career in MMA to the point any little cut dramatically bleeds and obstructs his vision, potentially leading to the fight being called off by the ringside doctor. Nate has looked slower and slower in every fight he's had and has often been dominated in lopsided decisions for 3 years now. With only punches allowed in boxing I think Jake will be bigger, faster, and stronger than Nate and he will KO him. Jake is -425 to Nate's +310 and I think Nate could pull something out of his ass but the likelihood is so drastically slim it's sad and not worth entertaining. I hope I'm wrong but Jake will continue to make a career out of fighting past their prime fighters unfortunately. Maybe Nate will intentionally get himself disqualified if he feels he's being bested early, that's the same as a KO/TKO to DraftKings but the return on that isn't great either. Sad fight and a sad end for the legend that is Nate Diaz, one of my all time favorite fighters. Excuse me now while I go cry.
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