If you enjoy being triggered or making money, then this is the article for you. The women's divisions lack the level of talent and skill that the Men's divisions see and that's a fact not an opinion. This isn't the fault of the female fighters, as they haven't had the same opportunities as their male counterparts. In fact, the UFC didn't even have female fighters until 2013. Most American fighters start their careers with wrestling, but women's wrestling wasn't introduced to most state schools until 2019. Even now, only 44 of the 50 states have sanctioned women's wrestling in High School. How about college? While some universities now offer the growing sport, the first NCAA Women's Wrestling Championships still won't start until 2026. The UFC had a large influx of fans in 2015 when they partnered with FOX bringing the sport to the mainstream. So, for lots of fans, they don't realize how recently female fighters were added to the UFC roster.
Because of the lack of experience, education, and genetically having less KO power; we see a lot more decisions. In fact, the lowest percentage of decisions by division among women (Featherweight, 55.3%) is still higher than the highest decision percentage among men (Flyweight, 54.5%). This information raised a question for me. What would happen if you blindly took the +3.5 for every female fight?
Now you might enjoy MMA but not understand the betting or vice versa so I'll break down what the +3.5 means. Plain and simple, you're buying points on the judges' score cards. You're taking the underdog every time in this scenario and if your fighter wins via KO, Sub, or Decision you automatically win. The benefit of taking the +3.5 is even if they lose by decision, they only need to win one round on each judges score card. Judges mostly score rounds 10-9 giving the 10 points to the winner of that round. The points for a judge after three rounds will likely be either 30-27 or 29-28. It's possible a judge grades a round 10-8 if the beating in a round is lopsided for one fighter. Think of this like the house edge or a 0 or 00 on the roulette table. This will happen on occasion but is not the norm. Three judges score each MMA fight and the fighter with the +3.5 just has to win one round on each judges score card to win you the bet. If all rounds are scored 10-9 for all three judges, the total score would be 90-81 with the fighter losing by 9. Winning one round for all the judges (a 29-28) would equal 87-84 and the +3.5 would get you the win (87-87.5). So even if the other fighter gets the unanimous win, you can win your bet!
Over the next few months, I'll be tracking what happens if you blindly bet every +3.5 in the women's divisions. I will also do the +5.5 for 5 round fights. It's the exact same concept. I'll list them before every card and give updates to see if it is a winning strategy. Join me along the journey each week, only available here on bettorgreen.com.
UFC Vegas 98: Event 1 of +3.5
Cory McKenna +3.5 (-225)
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