Another week, another 2-2 record in the article plays. We hit the NFL best bet with the Indianapolis Colts, as well as the College Football honorable mention with Air Force. However, the Chargers failed to cover against the Chiefs and the Spartans couldn't compete with Michigan. Our article plays move to 8-8 through 4 weeks. I feel really good about these bets this weekend and think a 4-0 sweep is highly possible.
SF -4 -110
I am backing the San Francisco 49ers at home for my best bet this weekend. The Niners are back home after 2 tough road losses against the Browns and the Vikings, respectively. San Francisco was on top of the NFL before those two losses and were widely thought of as the best team in the league, and while their two straight losses have made people rethink that, I still think that they are the team to beat this season. The biggest news in this game is that starting QB Brock Purdy will be sidelined with a concussion, giving way to Sam Darnold in this one. While Purdy has looked solid on this Niners team, I do not expect much of a drop off, if any, with Darnold at the helm. Darnold has plenty of starting experience in the NFL and as the Niners showed us last season, they can win football games with just about anybody under center. I believe we are getting a gift of a line at -4 due to the overreaction of Purdy being out and I will gladly take it. As I mentioned above, San Francisco is back home in this game where they are extremely tough to beat. The 49ers have not lost at home in over a year, and their one home loss last season was against the eventual Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs. This years Bengals are far from the talent that the Chiefs had last season. The Bengals are off of their bye week heading into this one, which a lot of people will gravitate towards as an advantage, but I disagree. The Bengals struggled out of the gate this season but finally found some momentum by winning their last 2 games before the bye week. Teams who have momentum want to keep playing and build on that, not take a week off to halt what they had going, and I think that is exactly what will happen here. Not only that but the Bengals have a huge Sunday Night Football matchup on deck with the Buffalo Bills. If you remember, Cincy and Buffalo couldn't finish their meeting last season after the Demar Hamlin injury which ended up hurting the Bengals playoff seeding. They were up in that game when it was cancelled and they have unfinished business next weekend. This is a tough spot for the Bengals. This Cincinnati offensive line is going to struggle against the Niners pass rush and I think it'll be a long day for Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense. This is a perfect storm of sorts for me to back the Niners. We have the better team with the better defense, at home off of 2 straight losses, with a back up QB which gives us line value, against a team in a tough spot. I like the Niners to win this one handily in a 34-17 type of game. Lay the points with SF with some confidence this weekend.
Honorable Mention: DEN +7.5 -120
WIS +14.5 -112
We are heading to the big 10 once again for this week's college football best bet, and this time we are fading the Ohio State Buckeyes. I like the Wisconsin Badgers +14.5 at Camp Randall on Saturday Night. While this is a slight play on the Badgers, this is a big play against Ohio State. The Buckeyes are off their biggest matchup of the season as they beat the Nittany Lions of Penn State last weekend 20-12. The Buckeyes had 3 games on their schedule circled for this season, being Notre Dame, Penn State, and Michigan. They have come out victorious against the first 2 and just need to walk away with wins in their next 4 games before heading to the Big House on Thanksgiving weekend. This is a major flat spot for the Buckeyes as they just gave max effort in their win agaisnt Penn State. They now have to travel to Wisconsin for a night game that should have a rowdy atmosphere. Ohio State is going to want to get in and get out with a win and I think 14.5 is just too many points to be giving a good Wisconsin team at home in a night game. Wisconsin, on the other hand, has 2 losses this season against Washington State, which looks like a way better loss than it once did, as well as a close loss to the Iowa Hawkeyes in and ugly game. They got a win at Illinois last weekend and control their destiny in the Big 10 West. This is the final big matchup of the regular season for the Badgers and I expect a huge effort from this team. If they can catch Ohio State, they will have a cake walk to a 10-2 record. After OSU, Wisconsin faces Indiana, Northwestern, Nebraska, and Minnesota, all big 10 bottom feeders. This is a huge game for the Badgers and I think this one comes down to the wire. I think Ohio State wins it late but over 2 touchdowns is way too many for the home team. I look for Ohio State to squeak by with a 27-23 type of victory in this one. Take the points with the Badgers on Saturday Night.
Honorable Mention: NCST +9.5 -110
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