UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs Pyfer - DFS Plays and Fades
Every Lineup Fighter: Ignacio Bahamondes, $9,200, (-290)
He brings a massive 6.5-inch reach advantage into this matchup, and he also lands more strikes per minute while being the more accurate striker. On the other side, Musayev has logged less than one full round of UFC experience after getting finished in the first round by Orolbai. He’s also coming off a loss to Rafael Fiziev, a fight where he was taken down four times. I do not see Musayev finding that same kind of grappling success here, which makes this a matchup Bahamondes should be able to control. When it comes to confidence, Bahamondes is the fighter I feel best about winning on this card.
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Value Fighter: Mansur Abdul-Malik, $8,200, (-118)
Mansur Abdul-Malik is my value fighter this week. He brings serious finishing upside, with stoppages in four of his last five wins, giving him exactly the kind of ceiling we’re targeting at this price point. On the other side, Belgaroui is just entering his third UFC fight, still early in his development and facing a much more dangerous finisher here. Abdul-Malik is also five years younger, which only adds to the physical edge in this matchup. When you factor in his upside relative to salary, he grades out as one of the top five value plays on the entire card.
Fade Fighter: Gabriella Fernandes, $8,400, (-118)
She’s just 3-2 in her UFC career, and more importantly, four of those fights have gone to decision, with her lone finish coming via submission against Cong Wang. Simply put, she’s a decision machine, and that’s a problem at this price point. She’s currently priced nearly 30 points above her average output, which leaves almost no margin for error. On top of that, about 60% of the Tapology community is backing her opponent, so the confidence clearly isn’t overwhelming. When you combine limited finishing upside with inflated pricing, it’s a tough sell. Even if Fernandes gets her hand raised, a decision win likely won’t be enough to pay off her salary.
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Ben is a DFS and sports betting analyst who has been creating sports content since 2022. He has been a guest speaker at the Fantasy Football Expo located in Canton, Ohio and is known for his one-of-a-kind breakout and bust grading system that helps fantasy managers spot sleepers and avoid traps before the market catches on.
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