Value Fighter: Belal Muhammad, $7,400, (+220)

Belal Muhammad at $7,400 is easily my favorite value on the entire slate because his style is built for winning rounds, and that’s exactly the kind of matchup he gets against Ian Garry. Belal is one of the most reliable minute-winners in the division — he lands over 4 significant strikes per minute while absorbing far less, and his takedown defense is elite, sitting around the 90% mark. That means Garry, who averages less than one takedown per 15 minutes, isn’t going to be able to mix things up or steal control time. On the feet, Garry’s defense hangs just above 50%, so he’s hittable, and Belal’s pressure, pace, and ability to make every exchange uncomfortable plays perfectly into a grind-heavy, score-stacking decision. At this price point, you’re getting a proven welterweight who historically shuts down flashy strikers, wins the small battles, and forces opponents into his kind of slow, suffocating fight.

Fade Fighter: Myktybek Orolbai, $9,500, (-245)

Orolbai is my clear fade for this card — I’m not only expecting he won’t finish Hermansson, I believe he’s in real danger of losing outright. Orolbai averages about 3.11 significant strikes landed per minute with a striking accuracy around 48% and absorbs roughly 3.08 significant strikes per minute, while his striking defense sits near 50%. Meanwhile Hermansson averages about 5.13 landed strikes per minute, has a striking accuracy near 45%, and his defense is up around 57%. On top of that, Orolbai’s prior loss to Mateusz Rębecki—where he got clipped up and didn’t get finished but was dominated on the feet — is a major red flag. The matchup just leans heavily toward Hermansson’s pace and damage output and given Orolbai’s thinner margin of safety (lower output, weaker defense), it’s hard to see him controlling the fight.