Every Lineup Fighter: Merab Dvalishvili, $9,500, (-410)
Merab Dvalishvili is my every-lineup fighter this week—and the graphs prove why. We have two fighters on this slate sitting so far apart in value that they can’t even fit on the same chart, and Merab is the one breaking the model. His value score is so absurdly high he literally disappears off the graph. Nobody in the UFC has a gas tank like Merab. Nobody matches his pressure, his pace, or his willingness to weaponize cardio for 25 straight minutes. He’s already beaten Yan, and this is a version of Yan who’s older, slower, and facing a Merab who has gained a world of confidence since their last meeting. I expect a dominant decision, but with his pace and momentum, I wouldn’t rule out a late-fight finish either.
Value Fighter: Bogdan Guskov, $7,800, (+105)
Hell has officially frozen over—Bobby and I are both picking Bogdan Guskov this week. He’s sitting under that crucial $8,000 salary breakpoint, and on the graph he trends well above the 10x value line, which is exactly what you need from a live underdog on this slate. Guskov is the only fighter in this matchup with true finishing potential, and if you’re playing DFS this week, you have to pick some dogs. The problem? Most of the underdogs on this card simply don’t have the ceiling to win you a tournament… except Guskov. I don’t believe in him long-term, but Jan is at the stage of his career where he honestly should be retired—and if UFC paychecks were bigger, he probably would be. This is the perfect spot to take a high-upside swing.
Fade Fighter: Payton Talbott, $9,200, (-258)
My fade of the week is Payton Talbott. He’s exciting, he’s talented, and he’s got real upside long-term—but he has never faced a world-class grappler anywhere near the level of Henry Cejudo. We’ve already seen Talbott get out-grappled by an aging veteran earlier this year, and Raoni Barcelos is nowhere close to Cejudo’s pedigree. For Talbott to have success, he needs to keep this fight standing… and that’s a tall order against an Olympic wrestler who is still searching for his first win since returning from retirement. Talbott can strike, no doubt—but he has a clear path to getting upset, and that makes him an easy fade at his price.
