When it comes to building winning lineups on Underdog, discipline is just as important as finding the right players. That’s why we keep our plays tight—sticking to just 3 legs. The math backs it up: the more legs you stack, the faster your odds drop. For example, even if each leg has a 60% chance of hitting (better than a coin flip), a 3-leg entry still has a 21.6% chance of cashing. Add a fourth leg, and it plummets to 12.9%. By the time you’re at 5 legs, you’re looking at just 7.7%—not exactly a recipe for consistency. In other words, chasing big payouts with long slips might look appealing, but the sharp strategy is keeping it short and maximizing your actual chances of walking away with a win. We have also partnered with my friend David, the creator of PropsBot.AI, to bring you picks that I like personally and are backed up by data driven insights! Click the link underlined here to get a free 10-Day trial of PropsBot.AI and find more picks and values for yourself!
Lamar Jackson LOWER THAN 0.5 Interceptions
This line looks uncomfortable on the surface, which is exactly why it’s playable. The implied probability sits at 58.3%, but what really jumps off the page is the 0.97 confidence score, one of the strongest signals you’ll see on any player prop. Yes, Lamar has thrown a pick in 5 of 12 games this season and 3 over his last 5, which should be enough to scare the public away — but context matters. Lamar has been in and out, and during that stretch the Ravens have leaned heavily into the run game with Derrick Henry, finding consistent success and reducing the need for risky throws. Expect Baltimore to game plan conservatively, prioritize ball control, and limit the types of mistakes that lead to interceptions. PropsBotAI loves this spot, and after nailing Drake Maye UNDER 0.5 INTs last week with ease, this is a sharp follow worth riding.
Aaron Rodgers HIGHER THAN 200.5 Passing Yards
This is PropsBotAI’s favorite OVER of the entire Sunday slate, and the setup couldn’t be much cleaner. This game actually matters — win and you’re in, lose and it's playoffs for the Ravens — which already separates it from most of the Week 18 chaos. When these two teams met in early December, Rodgers carved them up for 284 passing yards, falling just short of 300, and now we’re being asked to clear barely 200 yards. Even better, Underdog is hanging 199.5 at even money, a full yard cheaper than the books, giving us immediate value before the game even kicks off. In a week where players can get pulled at any moment, this is one of the few spots where we can confidently project maximum effort, full snaps, and aggressive play-calling — and that effort is going to run straight through Aaron Rodgers’ arm.
Jaxson Dart HIGHER THAN 205.5.5 Pass Yards
This is a pure game-script and matchup play, and everything lines up. Dart draws a porous Dallas defense, and the Cowboys should have no trouble putting points on the board against the Giants, which keeps the pressure on to throw. While this game doesn’t matter in the standings for either side, that actually helps us here — Dart has been playing on straight vibes since the playoff door closed weeks ago, and we already saw him air it out against the Raiders in a similar low-stakes spot. On the other side, Dak Prescott is chasing the passing yards crown, meaning Dallas has every incentive to keep throwing, creating a pass-heavy environment for both teams. Dart has cleared this number in 3 of his last 5 games, and with a soft matchup, negative game script, and nothing holding him back, he has a real chance to cap his rookie season on a high note by sailing past 205.5 yards.
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