Welcome to English Premier League Best Bets, a Bettor in Green Article Series where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matchweek.
For an overview of what to expect in this Series, check out my 2025/26 EPL Season Preview and Futures article here.
Recap:
We are officially halfway through the EPL Season! As the new year hits, the soccer calendar really gets exciting as we draw closer to the various cup finals and as the EPL table really takes shape.
Sportsbooks had a great matchweek 19, as 7 of the 10 EPL matches ended in a draw, a result often good for sportsbooks and bad for the public.
Manchester City dropped points in a 0-0 draw at Sunderland, allowing Arsenal to take a 4 point lead in the title race after they had a commanding 4-1 win against 3rd-place Aston Villa.
The biggest news of the week came off the pitch, as Chelsea manager, Enzo Maresca, parted ways with the club after a reported falling out with club ownership, apparently due in part to their poor run of form as of late.
We had a rough go with Best Bets, going 0-3. Cunha, who we backed to score or assist for Manchester United, looked really poor in their 1-1 draw to Wolves, while Palace drew with Fulham after leading for a long stretch and Spurs had a 0-0 draw with Brentford.
Across the Globe we did better, going 4-1, winning both AFCON bets and 2 out of 3 Australian A-League matches.
Upcoming Matches:
We have another quick turnaround heading into matchweek 20, with just a day of rest before an action-packed weekend.
On Saturday, we have 4 matches, including a match between two teams in the relegation zone, Wolves hosting West Ham, and a big match between Bournemouth and Arsenal.
On Sunday, we have 6 matches, starting with a fierce rivalry match between Manchester United and Leeds United, culminating in a big match between Manchester City and Chelsea, now without Maresca at the helm.
Let’s get to the bets:
Best Bets:
Pick #1: Aston Villa Moneyline -130 (Jan. 3, 2026; 7:30 a.m. EST):
I’m backing the early kickoff for my first Best Bet, looking at Aston Villa hosting Nottingham Forest.
Villa are coming off a 4-1 loss at Arsenal, ending an 11-match winning streak in all competitions.
Speaking directly after the match, Aston Villa player, Morgan Rogers, said the team just see this match as a blip, losing fair-and-square away to the best team in the League.
They now host 17th-place Nottingham Forest, currently on a 3-match losing streak.
Aston Villa are 7-1-1 at home this season and will feel motivated to get back to winning ways.
Forest have been up and down this season, with highs like a 0-3 win against Liverpool at Anfield and a 3-0 home win against Spurs. However, they’re currently in a run of 3 losses, with only 1 goal in that time. Despite having almost double the shots and shots on target against Everton last time out, they lost 0-2 at home.
Pick #2: 2-Leg SGP: Brighton Moneyline and Over 1.5 Total Goals -133 (Jan. 2, 2026; 10:00 a.m. EST):
Next, I’m backing 14th-place Brighton as they host relegation-zone Burnley, taking Brighton and Over 1.5 Goals.
Brighton had a relatively strong start to the season, hovering near the top half, until a recent 6-match winless streak.
Brighton have done relatively well at home this season, with a 4-4-1 record, scoring 16 goals in the process. They’re 6th in expected goals (xG), and 13th in big chances missed. They’re getting in the right positions but not always finishing their chances.
Burnley are winless in their last 10, with 2 draws and 8 losses. I expect this to be a good opportunity for Brighton to break their winless run and extend Burnley’s winless run.
Brighton have only had 2 matches in all competitions this season fail to reach over 1.5 goals, while Burnley have only had 3 fail to reach that tally.
Brighton are a quality side, just in a bit of a slump, though playing a relegation contender should be just what they need to get back to a resounding win.
Pick #3: Liverpool Moneyline -110 (Jan. 4, 2026; 10:00 a.m. EST):
For our final Best Bet, I’m taking Liverpool on the road against Fulham.
Liverpool are currently in 4th after an uptick in form, currently on an 8-match unbeaten run, with 5 wins and 3 draws.
With 2nd-place Manchester City playing 5th-place Chelsea, this is a good opportunity for Liverpool to further cement themselves in the top 4 and push to be back in the title conversation, though they still have quite a bit of ground to make up.
Fulham sit in 11th, after a decent spell of form. However, they’ve struggled against some of the tougher teams (Crystal Palace, Newcastle, and Manchester City, as of late).
They’ve also outperformed their xG and are 15th for big chances missed, so their success has come from being clinical when it counts. While important, this may not be sustainable.
This should be a tough match, but the star power and sheer finances of Liverpool mean they’re the better team on paper, they just need to prove that on the pitch as well to retain their 4th-place position.
Across the Globe:
- Como Moneyline -140 (Italy; Serie A)
- Atalanta v AS Roma BTTS -125 (Italy; Serie A)
- 2-Leg Parlay: Barcelona and Real Madrid Moneylines +115 (Spain; La Liga)
- Sevilla Moneyline -130 (Spain; La Liga)
- Atlético Madrid Moneyline -110 (Spain; La Liga)
Season Record:
Best Bets: 29-28
Across the Globe: 46-50
