Seattle is the second highest power rated team in the NFL. They have a nice resume and a very complete team but the glaring question with the Seahawks: Can Sam Darnold do it? While they are the 2nd highest power rated team, I have my fears about Darnold and don't think this team ultimately makes it to the Super Bowl. That being said, Seattle has a good offense and a great defense and get home field advantage throughout the playoffs as the 1 seed. They have the 13th most efficient offense and the most efficient defense in the league, although their strength of schedule ranks just 19th. Seattle is a good team and can beat you in many ways, however, I see some weaknesses in this team. While they went 6-2 at home, they actually played better on the road this year going 8-1. I don't like the 1st round bye for Seattle and think Darnold has every capability of turning into a pumpkin at some point which we've seen from him year after year. This is also not an experienced HC, QB, or team when it comes to recent deep playoff runs. While Seattle is currently the 2nd highest power rated team in the NFL and the odds on favorite to win it all, I would be cautious moving forward with this team.
3.) Houston Texans
Houston comes in as the 3rd highest power rated team, in much thanks to their defense. Houston has flown under the radar all season long due to the NFL becoming and offensive league and this team lacking offensive flash, however, their defense more than makes up for it. The Texans have now won 10 in a row after dominating a fraudulent Steelers team in Pittsburgh in the wild card round. They have the 2nd most efficient defense but just the 18th most efficient offense, albeit against the 6th toughest strength of schedule. Houston can absolutely win it all. They have a HC and QB who have won a playoff game 3 years in a row now and while they have failed to get out of the divisional round, I think that could change this year. While the Steelers were the second weakest team entering the post season, it was still impressive how big of a beat down this Texans team put on them despite QB CJ Stroud playing a terrible game. The Texans will have to win on the road moving forward which they can do as they went 6-3 away from home this season. The Texans have experience, a top defense, and a decent path to the Super Bowl. It wouldn't shock me if this team is playing in San Francisco in February, however, CJ Stroud's play is the major question mark for this team.
4.) Buffalo Bills
The Bills rank 4th of the remaining NFL teams and while I wish they were higher, this is where the numbers have them. There is a lot to like about this Buffalo team moving forward as they are the odds on favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. While I like to think they will likely be the team that makes it there, they have some flaws that could hold them back yet again. As the 6 seed and with the 7th seed eliminated, Buffalo is guaranteed to play away from home the rest of the way. They went 6-3 on the road, including winning their wild card game in Jacksonville, but historically they are a better home team. They rank highly offensively with the 3rd most efficient offense, but defensively they struggle with just the 18th most efficient defense against the 30th toughest strength of schedule. If the Bills lose, it will be because their defense couldn't get the necessary stops. Buffalo has an experienced HC and QB which is necessary in my opinion to go all the way. They have their easiest path to get their with their rivals and kryptonites (KC and BAL) both missing the playoffs. While the Bills lack on paper and fall to 4th in my power ratings, I believe this team has the "it factor" and I would not at all be shocked to see them go all the way. The odds on favorite in the AFC for good reason.
5.) San Francisco 49ers
Getting into the back half of the ratings gets me to the 49ers. San Francisco has passed the eye test for me all season long, however, I am off market for this Niners team. It is no question that San Francisco is dealing with plenty of injuries, but outside of that, there is a lot to like with this team. As mentioned above, this team has the experience. They have a HC who has been to 2 Super Bowls, a QB who went to 1, and the majority of the team has deep playoff experience, something that can't be overlooked at this stage in the campaign. They will be playing the next 2 games on the road, however, they are likely to be on the west coast for each and have a shot to play in the Super Bowl at their home stadium. The Niners have had no problem winning on the road as they have gone 8-2 away from home this season. They have the 2nd most efficient offense despite the injuries, however, just the 25th most efficient defense and the 16th toughest strength of schedule. Their are questions with this teams defense and injury history, however, they have the experience and a potentially advantageous schedule from a travel aspect, 2 things that make me a 49ers believer. Don't call me shocked if SF wins the Super Bowl in their home stadium come February.
6.) New England Patriots
Good team, fun story, elite? No. The Patriots have a great future to look forward to with Mike Vrabel at the helm and a very good young QB in Drake Maye. Is 2025-26 their year? Point blank, no. This team had a historically easy schedule coming in which propelled them to the number 2 seed in the AFC. While I think they can compete in the coming years, this team is too green to get it done this year. New England has the 7th highest rated offensive efficiency and the 15th highest rated defense, although that was against the 32nd (by a wide margin) strength of schedule. While HC Mike Vrabel has some playoff experience, the team and QB Drake Maye do not and that will hold this Patriots team back. New England is a good team, not an elite team. They're more of a fraud than they are a contender. While I think they have a shot to get to the AFC title game, that feels to me like their ceiling. Not the worst remaining team in the playoffs but a true contender they are not.
7.) Denver Broncos
The #1 seed in the AFC being the worst team left in the conference? Believe it or not, yes. Denver doesn't have much to boast about as the number one seed. They are a team with little playoff experience (a WC loss last season) and while HC Sean Payton has a Super Bowl to his name, that was nearly 2 decades ago. Again, a good team? Yes. A great team? No. Denver is 14th in offensive efficiency and 7th in defensive efficiency against the 25th toughest strength of schedule. The Broncos do everything good, they don't do anything great. While they do have home field advantage throughout and a home record of 8-1, they only beat 2 playoff teams at home all year, one of which being the Chargers who benched their starters in the final game and the other being the eliminated Packers. Denver gets a tough draw at home this weekend and the Bills will be the toughest team they've faced all season. Similarly to the Patriots, this team has future potential but they are too green this year and don't have enough offensive fire power or a dominant enough defense to win 3 straight against the toughest teams in the league.
8.) Chicago Bears
You knew it was coming. I am not a Bears hater, I am a Bears truther, and while this team preps to host a divisional round playoff game as the 2 seed in the NFC, I wouldn't run to crown this Bears team the league champion like many in their fanbase have already done. Not only is this team the lowest remaining power rated team, they just barely crack the top half of the entire league, including teams who have spent the last week in Cancun. While the Bears do have home field advantage this week and next if they somehow matchup with the 49ers, that is about all they have going for them. They went 7-2 at home this season, beating the Packers twice in miracle fashion and the Steelers who believe it or not were a lower power rated playoff team than what the Bears are. Outside of those wins their schedule and resume was very weak. The Bears don't rank inside the top 10 in any major statistic other than luck rating, which believe it or not is a thing and the Bears rank 3rd. (Others in the top 5 include Denver, San Francisco, New England, and Seattle - other teams I have labeled as frauds). They are the 11th rated offense and just the 21st most efficient defense against the 21st toughest strength of schedule. They have no playoff experience as HC Ben Johnson is a first time head coach and QB Caleb Williams made his playoff debut in the wild card round. The Bears as an organization haven't made the playoffs in nearly a decade. Again, as I said with New England and Denver. This team is good. They have a bright future ahead. But this year? No shot. If you have watched the Bears this season you know they are living on borrowed time. They have multiple impressive comebacks to their credit, but you can only do that so much. They now get the highest rated team remaining and a coach and QB duo who won't allow the Bears to come back from a major late deficit. The Bears future is very bright don't get me wrong, but this team has some glaring weaknesses. A team who has gotten lucky to make it this far and really doesn't impress on either side of the ball outside of a few late miracle drives, their luck runs out sooner rather than later.
While power ratings aren't going to tell you who wins or loses a football game, they are a great starting point when handicapping the NFL, or all sports for that matter. Could the lowest rated team go out and beat the top rated team? Sure, anything can happen in a 60 minute football game. Do I expect that to happen this weekend? I do not. My power ratings are a mashup between offensive and defensive efficiency, as well as experience which I find to be a crucial piece this deep into the season. We have 4 teams with recent playoff experience and 4 teams without - those being the 4 highest seeded teams. When the dust settles on the season, I fully expect one of those experienced teams to be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. I hope you find this article useful moving forward. The last thing I will leave you with is while there is a little bit of my own opinion in this article, the rating and the meat and potatoes of the article are numbers based and are facts, not opinions. Cheers.
