Welcome to English Premier League Best Bets, a Bettor in Green Article Series where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matchweek.

For an overview of what to expect in this Series, check out my 2025/26 EPL Season Preview and Futures article here.

Recap:

There wasn’t much movement at the top of the table in matchweek 21, as each of the top 4 earned a draw.

Chelsea and Manchester United fell down the table as Brentford and Newcastle jumped up a few spots, now sitting 5th and 6th, respectively. 

Speaking of Newcastle, they won a 4-3 thriller with Leeds, scoring the latest non-penalty goal in EPL history, at the 90+12 minute mark.

In the big matchup of the week, Arsenal hosting Liverpool, each side settled for a scoreless draw, the first scoreless draw between these two in the EPL in over a decade.

For Best Bets, we went 1-2, winning Nottingham Forest. We weren’t even close with BTTS for Palace v Villa, which ended 0-0. We almost won Spurs to win either half, until Semenyo got a late goal in his last appearance for Bournemouth.

Across the Globe, we went 4-1, only losing our Serie A parlay, with Napoli getting a draw rather than a win.

Upcoming Matches:

Matchweek 22 kicks off with a Manchester Derby with a little extra intrigue, as Michael Carrick has been named the Manchester United interim manager and will have a tough test for his first match.

There are 2 London Derbies on Saturday, as Chelsea host Brentford and Spurs host West Ham. Saturday ends with Nottingham Forest hosting Arsenal.

We have 2 matches on Sunday, with the weekend wrapping up Monday afternoon with Brighton hosting Bournemouth. 

Let’s get to the bets:

Best Bets:

Pick #1: Manchester City Moneyline -105 (Jan. 17, 2026; 7:30 a.m. EST):

For our first Bet, I’m looking at the opening match of the weekend, the Manchester Derby.

While I sometimes back the “New Manager Bump,” and do think United may get a bit of a boost in the coming weeks, I don’t believe they have enough firepower and structure to break down Manchester City.

United still are without Mazraoui, off at the Africa Cup of Nations, and De Ligt, out with injury, though they should have Mbuemo back from AFCON.

However, Manchester City are cooking, having just brought in Semenyo from Bournemouth, who played and scored in both the FA Cup and Carabao Cup fixtures Man City recently played. They’ll also have the likes of Doku, Haaland, Foden, and Cherki, all in solid attacking form.

Speaking of the Cup Competitions, Manchester City did just play midweek in the Carabao Cup Semi-Final, a 0-2 win on the road to Newcastle. While sometimes this would give me pause, City have the depth to compete adequately in both competitions, especially in attack.

One of the biggest reasons I like City this weekend is the motivation factor. They need this win to stay in the title race and keep pressure on Arsenal. With the way they’ve been playing lately, I like their chances of beating their cross-town rival.

Pick #2: Tottenham Hotspur Moneyline -145 (Jan. 17, 2026; 10:00 a.m. EST):

Next, I’m backing a team that failed us last week, going with Spurs to win on the moneyline.

Admittedly, Spurs have struggled at home, with only Burnley, West Ham, and Wolves doing worse. I have heard there is a planned protest set to happen before the match, with Spurs fans signaling their displeasure with the board over results and transfers.

Results haven’t been good enough for Spurs and there has been significant change at the club, with Sporting Director Fabio Paratici leaving the club and John Heitinga, former Ajax manager, joining as an assistant coach, filling the spot left by Matt Wells, who is now off to manage Colorado Rapids.

While Spurs have a well-documented injury crisis, with Richarlison the latest to catch the injury bug, there is some excitement about new/returning players, as striker Dominic Solanke should be available to start, as well as new-signing Connor Gallagher from Atlético Madrid available in midfield.

Spurs need to turn their form around, especially at home, otherwise manager Thomas Frank will be at further risk of losing his job. West Ham should present a great opportunity to get a positive result.

West Ham were winless for 10 matches before getting a win last weekend against 2nd-tier QPR in the FA Cup. That match required extra time and, while some players got rest, a few key players (Bowen, Todibo, Kilman, and Summerville) played the full 120 minutes.

And with Lucas Paquetá eying a move to Brazil this month, he may be out for this match.

Despite the injuries, Spurs have the quality to win this match and will be desperate to turn around their home form in front of impatient fans.

Pick #3: Brighton Moneyline -115 (Jan. 19, 2026; 3:00 p.m. EST):

For our final Best Bet, I’m taking the final match, backing Brighton to beat Bournemouth.

Brighton are coming off an important FA Cup win against Manchester United.

They’ve been in decent form as of late, earning some important wins and draws. Notably, they’ve only lost 5 of their last 20 matches, only losing to Liverpool, Aston Villa, Manchester United, and Arsenal twice within that stretch.

While they may be without Minteh in attack, Danny Welbeck and Georginio Rutter have impressed me as of late. They also brought back a club hero, Pascal Groß.

Bournemouth, on the other hand, were just knocked out of the FA Cup on penalties against Newcastle at the weekend.

While they won their last EPL match against Spurs, it was their first win in 12 matches, only grabbing the win at the death because of a late Semenyo goal, his final act before moving to Manchester City.

While I respect Iraola as a manger and coach, he now has a big task to turn around their form, now without their best player. While Kroupi has also been phenomenal, can he keep the same form without Semenyo in the squad? Only time will tell!

Across the Globe:

• Genk Moneyline -105 (Belgium; Pro League)
• Athletic Bilbao Moneyline +120 (Spain; La Liga)
• Trabzonspor to Win Either Half -115 (Türkiye; Super Lig)
• Pumas UNAM Moneyline -125 (Mexico; Liga MX Clausura)
• Senegal v Morocco Under .5 1st Half Goals +125 (International; Africa Cup of Nations Final)

Season Record:

Best Bets: 32-31

Across the Globe: 52-54