When it comes to building winning lineups on Underdog, discipline is just as important as finding the right players. That’s why we keep our plays tight—sticking to just 3 legs. The math backs it up: the more legs you stack, the faster your odds drop. For example, even if each leg has a 60% chance of hitting (better than a coin flip), a 3-leg entry still has a 21.6% chance of cashing. Add a fourth leg, and it plummets to 12.9%. By the time you’re at 5 legs, you’re looking at just 7.7%—not exactly a recipe for consistency. In other words, chasing big payouts with long slips might look appealing, but the sharp strategy is keeping it short and maximizing your actual chances of walking away with a win. We have also partnered with my friend David, the creator of PropsBot.AI, to bring you picks that I like personally and are backed up by data driven insights! Click the link underlined here to get a free 10-Day trial of PropsBot.AI and find more picks and values for yourself!
Puka Nacua HIGHER THAN 79.5 Rec Yards
Puka Nacua higher than 79.5 receiving yards is a pick that’s all about trusting elite volume and talent in a high-stakes moment. Yes, it’s a tougher matchup against the Seattle Seahawks defense, which is exactly why we’ve seen this number tick down—but that adjustment creates value. Puka Nacua has been operating on a different level lately, consistently commanding targets and turning routine catches into chain-moving gains. With everything on the line, the Rams aren’t hiding who their engine is, and Matthew Stafford will lean heavily on his most reliable weapon to keep drives alive. If the Rams want to control tempo, extend possessions, and push on to the Super Bowl, Nacua’s involvement is non-negotiable—making this lowered number a spot we’re comfortable attacking.
Rhamondre Stevenson LOWER THAN 0.5 TDs
Rhamondre Stevenson lower than 0.5 rushing touchdowns is a fade that makes a ton of sense in this spot. Rhamondre Stevenson isn’t operating as a bell cow splitting work with Henderson, which already caps his goal-line upside. Add in a brutal matchup against a Denver defense that finished top five against the run in both rushing yards allowed and rushing touchdowns, and the path to a Stevenson score gets very narrow. The Denver Broncos know this game hinges on shutting down the Patriots offense, and they’ll be playing with their hair on fire to do exactly that. With points at a premium and red-zone opportunities likely scarce, fading Stevenson to find the end zone is a spot I’m more than comfortable taking.
Kenneth Walker III HIGHER THAN 79.5 Rush Yards
Kenneth Walker III has the profile to clear 79.5 rushing yards, especially with Zach Charbonnet out for the rest of the playoffs due to a torn ACL, thrusting Walker into clear lead back duties. In the 2025 regular season, Walker led the Seahawks with 1,027 rushing yards on 221 carries, showcasing a solid 4.6 yards per carry average despite splitting time with Charbonnet prior to the injury. In Seattle’s most recent playoff game, Walker erupted for 116 rushing yards on 19 carries after Charbonnet was sidelined, proving he can handle a heavy workload and produce at a high level when given the opportunity. While he averaged about 60.4 rushing yards per game in the regular season, that number comes with a split backfield; now as the clear focal point on the ground, his volume and efficiency make the 79.5 line attainable. With Seattle’s identity leaning on controlling the clock, pounding the football, and leaning on their defense in a tight matchup where the run game becomes critical, Walker’s usage should spike enough to clear this total.
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