Welcome to English Premier League Best Bets, a Bettor in Green Article Series where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matchweek.

For an overview of what to expect in this Series, check out my 2025/26 EPL Season Preview and Futures article here.

Recap:

The biggest result from last weekend came from the biggest match of the weekend, as Manchester United beat Arsenal 2-3 on the road.

With Arsenal’s loss and wins for Manchester City and Aston Villa, the title race is truly back on!

Liam Rosenior’s Chelsea kept their fine form, beating Oliver Glasner’s Crystal Palace, who continue to struggle.

Bournemouth sealed a win against Liverpool with a stoppage-time winner, proving that they can manage even after losing Antoine Semenyo to Manchester City.

We hit 1-2 for Best Bets this week, losing Liverpool and Brentford, winning with Chelsea. 

We did better Across the Globe, going 4-1, only losing out with AC Milan.

Upcoming Matches:

Matchweek 24 brings us 5 matches on Saturday, 4 on Sunday, and finishes on Monday, with Sunderland hosting Burnley.

Big matches this weekend include Liverpool hosting Newcastle on Saturday and Tottenham hosting Manchester City, who historically struggle when playing at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Let’s get to the bets:

Best Bets:

Pick #1: Bournemouth Moneyline +120 (Jan. 31, 2026; 10:00 a.m. EST):

For our first Bet, I’m backing Bournemouth to get the win away to Wolves.

I expected a fall-off for Bournemouth when they lost Semenyo, and arguably the opposite result has happened. 

Bournemouth were on a streak of 11 matches without a win until Semenyo’s last match against Tottenham, where they got a late winner. They’ve yet to truly lose in the 3 matches since, though they did exit the FA Cup on penalties.

While Bournemouth’s two wins in their last 5 were at home, I think they’ll have enough quality and momentum to get the win against Wolves on the road.

They have the 6th highest expected goals (xG) and are 5th for goals scored in the EPL, slightly out-performing their xG. Their bigger problem is that they are 17th for goals conceded.

Wolves had finally found a decent stretch of form, stringing together a 5-match undefeated run (3 draws, two wins) in all competitions. However, they then lost again last week to Manchester City.

Wolves are underperforming on their xG, though they still sit 19th for xG, with only Burnley below them. While this indicates they are getting into decent positions, they are still 23 goals and 16 expected goals behind Bournemouth.

Wolves look destined to relegation this season, and while they’ve had a stronger run as of late, they’re still arguably the worst teams in the league and are worth fading.

Pick #2: Liverpool Moneyline -130 (Jan. 31, 2026; 3:00 p.m. EST):

Next, I’m backing Liverpool to get back to winning ways against fellow Champions League contender, Newcastle United.

Both of these clubs just played on Wednesday in the Champions League. Liverpool, however, played at home in a 6-0 win over Qarabag, while Newcastle traveled to Paris to play a 1-1 draw against PSG.

Liverpool finished in the top-8 in that competition, giving them a bye for the next round, while Newcastle will have to play a 2-legged playoff in mid-February. While it won’t have much effect on this weekend, they’re looking at quite the busy schedule ahead.

Speaking of fixture congestion, Liverpool won’t play again until next Sunday, while Newcastle play the 2nd-leg of the Carabao Cup at Manchester City on Wednesday, then host Brentford next Saturday.

The problem for Liverpool is they are facing an injury crisis, particularly with defenders, as Jeremie Frimpong was the latest to join the injury list in their Champions League match.

Liverpool will likely be forced to play players out of position, perhaps throwing Andy Robertson (a natural left-back) in at center-back and will likely play either Endo or Szoboszlai (natural midfielders) at right-back.

Liverpool have historically done well at home against Newcastle and have only lost 1 of their last 15 matches, losing last weekend in stoppage-time to Bournemouth. By contrast, Newcastle have lost 4 of their last 15. Newcastle have won 6 in that stretch compared to Liverpool’s 8.

I’m backing Liverpool’s home field advantage this week, especially given the current form of each side and the heavy fixture congestion for Newcastle.

Pick #3: Aston Villa Moneyline +105 (Feb. 1, 2026; 9:00 a.m. EST):

For our final Best Bet, I’m looking to Aston Villa to keep the title race interesting by beating Brentford at home.

Villa currently sit 3rd in the table, tied on points with Manchester City and only 4 points behind league leaders, Arsenal.

They’ve won a rather astonishing 16 of their last 20 matches, with a record of 16-1-3 in that stretch.

Villa did just play on Thursday in the Europa League, securing a 3-2 win at home to RB Salzburg.

While the quick turnaround is a little concerning, Villa will be prioritizing this EPL match to stay in the title race. Additionally, they’ve done good business in the January transfer window, bringing in former Villa players Douglas Luiz in midfield and Tammy Abraham at striker.

Brentford, their opposition, have struggled away from home this season, with a record of 3-0-8 when playing on the road. They lost their last 2 matches, one home and one away, failing to score a goal in either match.

While Brentford have been great this season, their away form leaves much to be desired and they will now play an in-form Villa looking to stay in the title race conversation.

Across the Globe:

• Istanbul Başakşehir Moneyline -115 (Türkiye; Super Lig)
• FC Lugano Moneyline +105 (Switzerland; Swiss Super League)
• Napoli Moneyline -130 (Italy; Serie A)
• Rangers FC Moneyline +120 (Scotland; Premiership)
• Fenerbahçe Moneyline -150 (Türkiye; Super Lig)

Season Record:

Best Bets: 33-36

Across the Globe: 58-58