I was sick AS A DOG to end last week and while I got you the DFS graphs for premium members, I wasn't able to get a DFS article done before the fights kicked off. To make it up to you guys, I have a premium article covering one of the fights that won't be featured on this week's episode of Tapping Vegas. If you haven't become a premium member yet, now is your chance to sign up with a free 7-day trial on our premium page! Let's get to the highly anticipated match between Said Nurmagomedov and Javid Basharat.
Premium
UFC
Said Nurmagomedov vs Javid Basharat: Chaos vs Control
February 3, 2026
On one side, you’ve got Said Nurmagomedov, who fights like he’s trying to end every exchange with a highlight. On the other, Javid Basharat, who fights like a guy who actually wants to win rounds, cash tickets, and not give Twitter a heart attack.
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Said Nurmagomedov: Absolute menace, terrible roommate for judges
Let’s be clear: Said is dangerous as hell. He’s the guy who:
- throws spinning stuff because he feels like it
- attacks submissions from places he shouldn’t
- turns scrambles into horror movies
If you bet MMA long enough, you’ve lost money fading guys like this. One bad shot, one lazy clinch, one awkward scramble — boom, you’re watching your parlay die via choke you’ve never practiced. That’s Said’s entire game. But here’s the betting problem: Said doesn’t win minutes. He wins moments.
He’s lower volume. He’s happy giving ground. He’ll happily lose a round while waiting for something weird to happen. And judges? Judges do not care about “vibes.” They care about who landed more, who pushed the pace, and who looked in control. Said’s win condition is very real — but it’s narrow.
Javid Basharat: The anti-chaos fighter
Basharat is not flashy. He’s not hunting spinning knockouts. He’s not trying to end the fight in 90 seconds.
He’s trying to:
- land more strikes
- avoid dumb scrambles
- mix in takedowns without committing crimes
- quietly win rounds while Twitter complains the fight is “boring”
And that is exactly the profile of a guy you want backing your bet. Basharat throws more. He’s cleaner defensively. He’s harder to knock out of position. And most importantly: he doesn’t panic when things get weird. That matters against Said, because Said needs weird.
The real matchup: “Can Basharat stay boring long enough?”
This fight isn’t about who’s better overall.
It’s about whether Basharat can avoid one or two catastrophic mistakes over 15 minutes. If Basharat doesn’t dive into guillotines, doesn’t chase bad takedowns, and disengages from dangerous scrambles he should win this fight, probably by decision. Probably with at least one round where people tweet “robbery incoming” even though it’s clearly not. But if Basharat gets careless? If he hangs in the pocket too long or leaves his neck out like it’s an invitation? That’s where Said cashes.
My money is on Javid Basharat to win a decision, while Said spends the fight being terrifying enough to make me uncomfortable the entire time.
Which, honestly, is peak MMA.
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Ben is a DFS and sports betting analyst who has been creating sports content since 2022. He has been a guest speaker at the Fantasy Football Expo located in Canton, Ohio and is known for his one-of-a-kind breakout and bust grading system that helps fantasy managers spot sleepers and avoid traps before the market catches on.
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