Welcome to English Premier League Best Bets, a Bettor in Green Article Series where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matchweek.

For an overview of what to expect in this Series, check out my 2025/26 EPL Season Preview and Futures article here.

Recap:

Arsenal took a decisive step towards securing the EPL Title this week with a 0-4 victory away at Leeds, while closest challengers Aston Villa and Manchester City failed to secure a victory themselves.

Arsenal now sit 6 points atop the table with 14 matches to go in the season.

With only 10 points separating 4th place and 13th place, the race for the European Competition places is wide open!

Notable results from last weekend include Chelsea’s come-from-behind win against West Ham, Liverpool’s 4-1 win over Newcastle, Brentford’s short-handed win over Aston Villa, Manchester United’s late winner over Fulham, and Tottenham’s comeback to draw 2-2 with Manchester City.

It was a wild weekend, to say the least!

We went 2-1 for Best Bets this week, winning with Bournemouth and Liverpool. I was surprised we didn’t hit all 3, as Aston Villa lost to Brentford, despite a Brentford red card in the 42nd minute.

We went 2-3 Across the Globe in a somewhat disappointing fashion, as our 3 losses were all due to draws. We did hit with Napoli and Fenerbahçe, though lost our moneyline bets on the rest.

Upcoming Matches:

Matchweek 25 kicks off with Leeds United hosting Nottingham Forest on Friday.

We have 7 matches on Saturday, starting with Manchester United hosting Tottenham and ending with Newcastle hosting Brentford.

We finish the weekend on Sunday as Brighton host Crystal Palace in the early match, and Liverpool hosting Manchester City in the marquee matchup of the week.

Let’s get to the bets:

Best Bets:

Pick #1: Aston Villa Moneyline +140 (Feb. 7, 2026; 10:00 a.m. EST):

For our first Bet, I’m going back to a team that hurt us last week, Aston Villa.

This week, Villa travel to Bournemouth, who are currently on a 5 match undefeated run.

Villa are coming off a disappointing loss to Brentford, despite being up a man for the entire 2nd half. They’ll be looking to turn that form around in a tough match against Bournemouth.

Aston Villa still sit 3rd in the table and will want to continue pushing to remain in the title conversation, or at least keep a solid grip on a top-4 spot.

Villa have been outperforming their expected goals against, only conceding 26 goals, despite an xG conceded of 33.9. Bournemouth, on the other hand, are on the opposite end, conceding 43 with an xG conceded of 34.8.

Bournemouth’s 43 goals conceded are the 4th most in the League. And while they’ve done decently well since losing Semenyo, they’ve conceded 8 goals in their last 5 matches.

With striker Tammy Abraham back at Villa, coach Unai Emery will have worked hard this week to help build a connection with him and playmakers like Morgan Rogers.

Pick #2: Chelsea Moneyline -150 (Feb. 7, 2026; 10:00 a.m. EST):

Next, I’m backing Chelsea to keep their strong form going against bottom-of-the-table Wolves.

Wolves had finally found a decent stretch of form, stringing together a 5-match undefeated run (3 draws, two wins) in all competitions, but then lost to Manchester City and then again to Bournemouth. 

More concerning for Wolves is the fact that they haven’t scored a goal in their last 3 matches.

Chelsea, on the other hand, have won 6 of the 8 matches since Liam Rosenior has been at the helm. Their only two other matches were losses to Arsenal in the Carabao Cup and in the EPL.

One thing they’ve excelled at under Rosenior is scoring goals, having scored 14 in the 8-match stretch since appointing the new manager.

With Wolves still struggling to put together anything meaningful this season and Chelsea currently sitting in 5th and challenging for a top-4 spot, the motivation to keep pushing will inevitably be stronger for Chelsea than for Wolves, who look set to be surely relegated this season.

Pick #3: Newcastle Moneyline +100 (Feb. 7, 2026; 12:30 p.m. EST):

For our final Best Bet, I’m looking to a team I faded last week, Newcastle.

Newcastle have had a bit of a fall off, both this season and as of recent matches. They sit 11th and have had a string of 4 matches without a win in all competitions.

However, they have played tough competition in the last 4 matches (Aston Villa, PSG, Liverpool, Manchester City) and have been playing matches in quick succession, due to the Champions League and the Carabao Cup quarterfinals.

Newcastle have a much stronger record at home, as it is a far trip north for most teams and is one of the most difficult venues in the League, with vocal and supportive fans.

I’ve been fading Brentford, their opposition, when on the road as they have struggled away from home this season. However, they proved me wrong last week, despite getting a 1st half red card and going down a man for a large chunk of the game.

Brentford are still only 4-0-8 when playing on the road and now have to travel to one of the toughest venues in the League and play a Newcastle side that desperately need to turn their form around against a slightly easier opponent.

Brentford will be without Kevin Schade, a player I rate quite highly, through suspension. In the last 3 matches, Brentford have only scored the 1 goal last week against Villa, and now will be without one of their best attacking players.

While Brentford have been great this season, their away form still is shaky and I expect them to struggle when traveling north to face Newcastle.

Across the Globe:

• VfB Stuttgart Moneyline -125 (Germany; Bundesliga)
• FC Lugano Moneyline -150 (Switzerland; Swiss Super League)
• Napoli Moneyline -110 (Italy; Serie A)
• Fiorentina Moneyline -135 (Italy; Serie A)
• 2-Leg Parlay: Inter Milan and Juventus Moneylines +109 (Italy; Serie A)

Season Record:

Best Bets: 35-37

Across the Globe: 60-61