Value Fighter: Jailton Almeida, $8,500, (-162)

My value fighter this week is Jailton Almeida, and the setup here is sneaky good. Jailton is stepping in to take on Rizvan Kuniev, and this is a massive leap in competition for Kuniev. His lone UFC appearance ended in a decision loss to the extremely one-dimensional Curtis Blaydes, a fight where he struggled to impose anything meaningful. Yes, Almeida was finished by Blaydes—but that’s a matchup problem, not an indictment. Jailton’s grappling, pace, and physicality are on a completely different level than what Kuniev has shown, and this feels like a fight where Almeida can dictate terms early. Against a slower, bloated heavyweight who looks a step behind the elite, I like Jailton to put on a dominant performance and remind everyone why he belongs in the big leagues.

Fade Fighter: Kyoji Horiguchi, $9,300, (-325)

My fade fighter this week is Kyoji Horiguchi, and I genuinely can’t wrap my head around him being a -325 favorite. He’s taking on Amir Albazi, a proven UFC veteran with better grappling and a much more relevant recent résumé—including a win over the very talented Kai Kara-France. This isn’t Horiguchi as some young phenom breaking into the UFC. He originally signed back in 2013, competed until 2017, left the promotion, and is now returning years later. Yes, the win over Tagir Ulanbekov was solid, but context matters. Horiguchi has also taken losses to Patchy Mix and Kai Asakura, fighters who were pretty brutally fraud-checked once they hit the UFC level. At this price, the risk massively outweighs the reward. I’m happily passing on Horiguchi in DFS and taking some shots on Albazi, who offers real value and a very live path to winning this fight.