Welcome to English Premier League Best Bets, a Bettor in Green Article Series where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matchweek.
For an overview of what to expect in this Series, check out my 2025/26 EPL Season Preview and Futures article here.
Recap:
Matchweek 25 was a good one for away clubs, as 6 of the 10 matches played last weekend were won by the away sides.
Manchester United were one of the few home winners, building on their fine form under Carrick and getting a 4th win in a row.
Speaking of teams with new managers in solid form, Chelsea keep winning under new manager Liam Rosenior.
In the title race, Arsenal got another important victory over Sunderland, while Manchester City came from behind and got a late winner against Liverpool in the marquee match of the week, with one of the more wild endings to a match I’ve seen in some time.
It was a rough weekend for me with bets, going 1-2, only winning Chelsea and losing on Villa and Newcastle.
Across the Globe was arguably worse, hitting 1-4. We had late drama to give us a luck win with Napoli, as well as late drama to spell an unlucky draw (and betting loss) for Fiorentina.
Back to the drawing board for this midweek slate.
Upcoming Matches:
Matchweek 26 brings us midweek action, with 4 matches on Tuesday, 5 matches on Wednesday, and 1 match on Thursday.
One match I have my eye on, as many others will as well, is West Ham hosting Manchester United. One Manchester United supporter has not cut his hair in over 400 days, waiting for United to win 5 in a row. He’s built quite the following, and United finally have an opportunity to get the clippers out if they can beat West Ham, earning their 5th win in a row.
Another fun match will be Sunderland hosting Liverpool and the last match of the week, Brentford hosting Arsenal in a London Derby.
Let’s get to the bets:
Best Bets:
Pick #1: Newcastle United to Win Either Half -140 (Feb. 10, 2026; 2:30 p.m. EST):
For our first Bet, I’m looking at a matchup between 2 clubs that have struggled for form, Spurs hosting Newcastle. This week, I’m fading my club, Spurs.
Newcastle have been in poor form as of late, winless in their last 4. They got off to a good start last weekend against Brentford, but conceded 2 late goals in the 1sr half. They then looked strong in the 2nd half and scored an equalizer, only to concede again a few minutes later.
They are slightly underperforming their expected goals (xG) margin, which indicates they are getting into decent positions but not getting the results (or perhaps chasing matches).
Tottenham, on the other hand, are vastly out-performing their xG, which is not sustainable and relies on luck. To their credit, they’ve scored some incredible goals this season, but have struggled for consistency.
Spurs have been particularly poor at home, with a record of 2-4-6 at home, the 4th-worst in the league.
Also a concern for Spurs is their injury list, which seems to grow by the day. One of their star centerbacks, Christian Romero, will be suspended for this match after picking up a red card at the weekend.
They’re also likely to be without most of their fullbacks (right back and left back), as Djed Spence is a doubt, joining Pedro Porro, Destiny Udogie, and Ben Davies on the injury list.
They’ve also got injuries up the field in midfield and attack.
While neither team has been great as of late, Newcastle have been playing several games back-to-back and have had tough opponents in their last 5 matches. While it’s a toss up who will win, I’ll back Newcastle to at least win a half.
Pick #2: Manchester United Moneyline -140 (Feb. 10, 2026; 3:15 p.m. EST):
Next, I’m backing Manchester United to get that 5th win in a row and finally let that poor fan cut his hair.
United have looked totally different under Michael Carrick. The team look comfortable and he is playing in a system that seems to get the best out of his players and puts the players into the positions that suit them the best.
Notably, playing Bruno Fernandes as an attacking midfielder at the number 10 position, bringing Kobie Mainoo back into the team, and employing Mbuemo as a central striker have seemed to be a masterstroke.
This matchup could be interesting, as United have done pretty well playing without the majority of possession, and West Ham have the 2nd-least total possession in the league. However, United handled it well against Spurs and controlled 65% possession.
West Ham are in solid form, with 4 wins in their last 5 matches. However, their toughest test was their loss to Chelsea. Summerville has been performing great for them, but if United can neutralize him and Bowen on the flanks, which should be easier with the back-4 system they’ve been playing since dropping Amorim, they should find success.
Get the clippers ready, The United Strand!
Pick #3: Viktor Gyökeres (Arsenal) to Score or Assist -105 (Feb. 12, 2026; 3:00 p.m. EST):
For our final Best Bet, backing Arsenal to keep their tight grip on the title race and for their striker to get a goal contribution.
Admittedly, Brentford have screwed me the past two weeks as I’ve faded them on the road. They now host Arsenal at the GTech, where they’ve been solid this year.
I expect Arsenal to win this match as -150 favorites. And, while Brentford have only given up 12 goals at home this season, they now are facing the league-leaders in their hunt to stay atop the table.
Gyökeres struggled for a while, but now has 4 goals and an assist in his last 5 matches, with 6 goals and 2 assists in his last 8. Gabriel Jesus and Kai Havertz being back has seemingly lit a fire under Gyökeres, as well as allowing for more service as Kai Havertz sits a little deeper.
Worried about taking a goalscorer? Try Arsenal Moneyline -150.
Across the Globe:
- Flamengo Moneyline -150 (Brazil; Serie A)
- Bayern Munich -1.5 -135 (Germany; DFB Pokal)
- BTTS Athletic Club v Real Sociedad -110 (Spain; Copa del Rey)
- Barcelona Moneyline +125 (Spain; Copa del Rey)
- Athletico Paranaense Moneyline +125 (Brazil; Serie A)
Season Record:
Best Bets: 36-39
Across the Globe: 61-65
