Date

: February 14, 2026; 9:00 p.m. EST

Competition: Italian Serie A

Best Bet: 

Como Moneyline -135 (Fanatics)

If you haven’t been following Como’s rise in Italian soccer over the last few seasons, they have quickly become one of the most exciting teams and storylines in Italian Serie A.

They were playing in Serie B only 2 seasons ago, then last year had their first year in Serie A in over 20 years. They’ve spent multiple seasons in that time bouncing between the 2nd-4th tier of Italian soccer.

Now, they have a great head coach in Cesc Fàbregas, who helped successfully guide them back to Serie A, helped them remain in the League last year in their first season back, and now has the team in 6th-place in Serie A, competing for the European qualifying places, and playing some of the most eye-catching football in Italy.

Their comeback story is incredible, and now they’re thriving in Serie A and are in the Semi-Finals of the Coppa Italia.

On current form, they’re 6-3-1 in their last 10 matches, with one of those draws ultimately leading to the advancing in the Coppa Italia Quarter-Finals on penalties over Napoli.

Como have won both matches this season over Fiorentina, one in Serie A and one in the Coppa Italia last month, with both matches being played away.

They now play Fiorentina at home, with Como’s strong Serie A home record of 6-5-1 going up against Fiorentina’s poor away record of 1-5-6.

Speaking of Fiorentina, they find themselves in a relegation battle, sitting 17th, despite their 6th-place finish last season. They’re also still in the Conference League, with an upcoming playoff match in that competition in the middle of next week.

Fiorentina have been unlucky at times, with an xG of 37 and an actual goal tally of 27, though their big killer is the 38 goals conceded and 34 xG against.

A few considerations against this bet are that Como just played a tough Napoli team earlier this week, the decent xG for Fiorentina, and the fact that Fiorentina are fighting to remain in Serie A.

However, Como have a similar xG, a better xG against, and are riding high after they knocked Napoli out of Coppa Italia. They have their own motivation as well, fighting for a European place.

Bottom Line: While Fiorentina are fighting for survival, they’ve struggled this year in the Serie A, have lost twice already while hosting Como this season, and generally are playing less-attractive football than Como.