Champions League Best Bets #9: Playoff Round Leg 1 (Feb. 17, 2026 - Feb. 18, 2026):

Welcome in to Champions League Best Bets, brought to you by Bettor In Green, where we recap the latest Champions League action and look ahead with my favorite bets for the upcoming matches.

Recap:

The League Phase of the 2025/26 Champions League has come to a close!

We had a wild final day that brought us one of the greatest Champions League moments we may see for a long time, as Benfica scored a stoppage-time winner over Real Madrid (with their keeper scoring the goal, no less) and moved into the playoff positions on goal differential thanks to that last-minute goal. Absolute madness!

While Benfica were arguably the biggest winners of the day, Napoli were arguably the big losers, disappointingly missing out on the playoff rounds.

Despite a strong start to the season, we went 1-2 for Best Bets this week, bringing the League Phase total to a somewhat disappointing 12-12.

Upcoming Matches:

Now, the knockout rounds begin with the Playoff Round, which pits clubs who finished 9-24 in the League Phase against one another in a 2-legged knockout round, with the winners advancing to the Round of 16 against the top-8 clubs.

One of the most exciting matchups on the docket is a rematch between Benfica and Real Madrid, immediately following Benfica’s heroics to get into the Playoff Round.

You can stream all of the matches here in the US on Paramount+!

Let’s get to the bets:

Best Bets:

Pick #1: Real Madrid Moneyline +120 (Feb. 17, 2026; 3:00 p.m. EST):

For my first bet, I’m heading right back to Real Madrid in arguably the most highly-anticipated matchup of the Playoff Round.

Jose Mourinho and Benfica put on a masterclass against Madrid on the final day of the League Phase.

Benfica needed that type of miracle performance in order to qualify for the knockout rounds. It was clear on that day they wanted it more than Madrid wanted to secure a top-8 spot.

But can they pull off the same heroics again? Or will Madrid be ready and fired up to prove why they have won this competition more than any other club?

Madrid have been on a good run of form since that loss, winning their next 3 La Liga matches with an aggregate score of 8-2 across those 3. They’ve now overtaken Barcelona for the top spot in the La Liga table.

This momentum, coupled with a desire to not be outdone by Benfica again, is why I am backing them this week. Real Madrid have not exited in the first round of the knockout rounds since 2018/19 and will be motivated to succeed in this match, where motivation seemed to be lacking in their final League Phase match.

Jose Mourinho is a great cup manager, but can he pull off another masterclass so quickly after the last one? I think Real Madrid will be ready for his tactics this time and have the quality in every position to win the match.

Pick #2: Inter Milan Moneyline -145 (Feb. 18, 2026; 3:00 p.m. EST):

Next, I’m looking at European giants Inter Milan as they take on UCL newcomers, Bodø/Glimt.

Bodø/Glimt have had a bit of a Cinderella story in this year’s Champions League, making it through the League Phase in their first year in the competition.

They’ve had some great results in the League Phase, drawing with Tottenham and Borussia Dortmund, then beating Manchester City and Atlético Madrid in their final two matches.

While they could do the same to Inter, Inter have been arguably a much more compact side defensively. They only gave up 7 goals in the League Phase, compared to Manchester City’s 9 and Atléti’s 15.

Another reason I like this bet is because Bodø/Glimt are in their off-season. They haven’t played a match since they beat Atlético on January 28, 2026, as their scheduled friendly with Malmö for February 11 was cancelled.

Inter, on the other hand, just beat Juventus 3-2 in Serie A last weekend and are on a 6-match winning streak. Their only losses in their last 20 matches were UCL opponents Atlético Madrid, Liverpool, and Arsenal.

Bodø/Glimt have been a surprisingly strong team with a few upsets this week, but Inter still have the pedigree in this competition to get a first-leg victory, especially since they’ve been playing routine competitive matches, unlike Bodø/Glimt.

Pick #3: Atlético Madrid Moneyline -115 (Feb. 18, 2026; 3:00 p.m. EST):

For my final Best Bet, I’m backing Atlético Madrid to get the win on the road against Club Brugge.

This matchup will be highly dependent on which version of these teams shows up.

Club Brugge lost 4 times in the UCL League Phase to Atalanta, Sporting, Bayern Munich, and Arsenal, only scoring 1 goal against Atalanta in those matches. They’ve also had a 3-3 draw with Barcelona, a 1-4 win over Kairat Almaty, and a 3-0 win over Marseille.

However, they’ve struggled to be creative against some of the stronger opposition, outside of exposing Barcelona’s high defensive line.

Atlético Madrid have conceded the 2nd fewest goals in La Liga (only behind Real Madrid) and will be more defensively compact than Barcelona. I expect this to be more akin to the defensive structure of Arsenal or Bayern Munich, though likely not quite as strong.

Atlético Madrid have also been inconsistent. They beat Real Betis 0-5 in the Copa del Rey, then lost to them 0-1 in La Liga. They beat Barcelona 4-0 in the Copa del Rey, only to then lose 3-0 to Rayo Vallecano in La Liga.

The team showing up for the cup competitions is seeming to have that extra motivation over the La Liga Atléti. So long as the can continue to be compact defensively and release the likes if Lookman, Griezmann, and Julian Álvarez (who finally broke a scoring drought), they should be able to get a win on the road in Belgium. 

Season Record:

League Phase: 12-12