Best Picture
(Criteria: Outstanding artistic and scientific achievements" across all aspects of filmmaking (directing, acting, cinematography, etc.)
The Favorite: One Battle After Another -650
One Fight After Another feels like the kind of film the Academy loves to reward: bold, emotionally raw, and technically fearless. It doesn’t just tell a story — it throws you into the chaos of its characters’ lives and forces you to sit with every bruise, every setback, every fragile moment of hope. It’s the rare movie that works on every level — storytelling, cinematography, score, and cultural impact — while still feeling intimate and personal. To bring it home, OBAA won both at the Golden Globes and BAFTA.
The Value: Sinners +400
Sinners has great performances, is beautifully crafted, and has the soundtrack to bring it all together. One of the biggest accomplishments has to be Sinners being a major movie with a large majority of the cast being people of color (POC). There have been only two films that have stood out with a majority black cast at the Oscars in its 96 years since the first award was given (12 Years a Slave & Moonlight). Not only has it stood out, but it tied La La Land with the most nominations for a film at the Oscars. That said, only one horror movie has ever won best picture and that was the classic, Silence of the Lambs.
The Dark Horse: Hamnet +1400
Hamnet has value at +1400 but if it didn’t win at the BAFTA’s that leans into a European bias then they have a big uphill battle at the Oscars. The acting was great but at times the pacing feels off and the movie drags whereas you feel the two above are constantly progressing the storyline.
The Pick: One Battle After Another
To make any other pick is to ignore all the data we have from the other ceremonies. I’m taking the giant to bring home the night's biggest award.
(Fade: Train Dreams)
Best Director
(Criteria: Most ambitious, technically executed, and artistically visionary direction, with a strong focus on cohesive storytelling, tone, and actor performances)
The Favorite: Paul Thomas Anderson -3500
Anderson has a 97% probability to win best director based on these odds and if you have One Battle After Another winning best picture, Anderson should be your pick here as well. 75% of the time the winner of Best Director also wins Best Picture. I would say that Anderson checks the boxes for most ambitious while also having a film that is technically sound with a solid storyline and elite acting performances.
The Value: Ryan Coogler +900
Coogler not only did an excellent job and has set records, but I give him the nod in having the best artistic visionary direction. It has a consistent tone and pace while letting the story unfold. If there is an upset for this award, I am about 99% sure it would be Coogler based on what he has accomplished in getting Sinners to this point.
The Dark Horse: Chloe Zhao +1600
Zhao is the artsy pick for her role in directing Hamnet. My biggest hang up with Zhao is that there is no way you can say this film was ambitious. The play already lays it out for them and has been being produced for hundreds of years with the play being written between 1599 and 1601. The best you can get with Zhao is this juicy +1600 line and a prayer that the academy likes the artsy drama.
The Pick: Paul Thomas Anderson
The odds have Anderson as a near lock but I’m not as sure with Coogler in the mix. Since I am so high on One Battle After Another, I’ll piggy back with the director winning as well.
(Fade: Joachim Trier)
Best Actor
(Criteria: official criterion is honoring the best performance in a leading role from a theatrically released film)
The Favorite: Timothee Chalamet -500
Timothee does a great job of playing a complex character. You root for him throughout the movie despite him consistently being an arrogant jerk and generally not a good person. He has the look of a guy that would be obsessed with ping pong and plays the character beautifully. He nailed his roles in Dune 2 and A Complete Unknown last year and now he is the odds on favorite to be rewarded for the last two years.
The Value: Leonardo Dicaprio +600
The award alluded Dicaprio until 2015 when he won this award for The Revenant. While Dicaprio was great, you have to also look at his supporting cast. They all did a fantastic job and were nominated because of it. His character is a loser and there is very little character development. This movie feels like things are “happening to him” and not that he is driving the action. He’ll have an uphill battle as only eleven actors have won Best Actor more than once.
The Dark Horse: Michael B. Jordan +1000
A performance so nice, he did it twice. Seriously, major props to MBJ because it had to be tough to play both roles and converse with himself without it translating corny on the screen. He’s a great actor and had a good performance in Sinners but the issue here is that Sinners isn’t the type of movie that normally has lots of Oscar success. Horror/Thriller movies historically have done poorly and have only had one Oscar win for best picture in 92+ years. The content of Sinners will drag down all the nominees.
The Pick: Timothee Chalamet
He killed this role and his character has the best character arc, is the most complex, and is the sole driving force of this film.
(Fade: Ethan Hawke)
Best Actress
(Criteria: official criterion is honoring the best performance in a leading role from a theatrically released film)
The Favorite: Jessie Buckley -3500
These odds make no sense to me since I think this may be the closest choice of the Awards. Buckley won the Golden Globe for the Best Actress in a Drama and Byrne won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Comedy/Musical. Both were firmly the leads in their respective films. Buckley carried a growing sadness throughout the film crescendoing in the final scene where she sees Shakespeare's play. You can feel the grief through the screen as well as the anger and resentment that can sometimes feel too real or close to home.
The Value: Rose Byrne +1100
This movie will make your chest tight and honestly; I was glad when it was over because I could breathe again. Byrne also plays a mom dealing with extreme depression and she feels incredibly relatable as well! We’ve all had a season of life or week where things feel incredibly overwhelming and you’re thrown right into the middle of the chaos. You empathize with Byrne while also knowing that she is self-destructing and maybe even slightly toxic. This is a two-horse race between Byrne and Buckley.
The Dark Horse: Renate Reinsve +2000
Reinsve closes out my trio of three depressed women in lead roles. There are a lot of moving parts in this film and honestly, her role doesn’t feel too different from the roles that Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas play. They both ended up with Best Supporting Actress nominations. She nails the role but doesn’t feel anywhere close to as important as the two listed above her.
The Pick: Jessie Buckley
The performances are tied for me and normally I would take the value with Byrne. However, the academy is going to put Hamlet and If I Had Legs I’d Kick You on different levels and the odds reflect that.
(Fade: Emma Stone)
Best Supporting Actor
(Criteria: official criterion is honoring the best performance in a supporting role from a theatrically released film)
The Favorite: Sean Penn -150
I personally loved Penn's performance as the film's villain. A guy who is ashamed to be attracted to POC and works as a high ranking official in what appears to be something similar to the border patrol. He does a great job of making his character seem truly unlikable and a bad guy with no morals.
The Value: Stellen Skarsgard +150
It feels a little like cheating that Skarsgard was entered as a supporting actor. The whole movie revolves around Skarsgard’s character and the movie he is trying to create. His character is not a likable hero but instead a flawed dad that while trying to make amends, continues to make wrong decisions. It would be hard to argue any of the options were more pivotal and meant more to their movie than Skarsgard’s character. The Golden Globes agreed and rewarded him for it.
The Dark Horse: Jacob Elordi +1100
I actually thought Elordi did a great job and was a great pick for this role. The movie's build up in the beginning is about Dr. Frankenstein trying to get funding for his research and Elordi doesn’t come into the film until the movie has already been running for about 1/3rd of its run time. He then spends about another 3rd of the movie in a state where he is unable to say more than one word. In the final 3rd Elordi is fantastic. It would just be hard to give the award to Elordi when the two above him are consistent big players on screen, but I wouldn’t be mad if Elordi did win.
The Pick: Stellen Skarsgard
His performance and role is just too large to be overlooked. He likely wins another award for his performance in Sentimental Value.
(Fade:Benicio Del Toro)
Best Supporting Actress
(Criteria: official criterion is honoring the best performance in a supporting role from a theatrically released film)
The Favorite: Teyana Taylor -150
Teyana nailed the role of a modern-day freedom fighter. While her character is really only in the first half of the film, she played a pivotal role in developing the storyline. It would have been VERY easy to cross the line into corny but she nailed the live like there’s no tomorrow character. The biggest critique of hers would be that she doesn’t have the same screen time as some of the other options.
The Value: Amy Madigan +500
Madigan was my pick to win this award before I saw One Battle After Another. I still think she has a good shot to win this award because I think you could argue that no movie revolves around a supporting actress like it does for Madigan. She was delightfully creepy and odd. It’s hard to make an old frail woman look menacing but her character is genuinely unsettling.
The Dark Horse: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas +700
Inga was great but I think you’ll have a hard time separating her, Renates, and Elle Fanning. It didn’t feel like anyone stood out more than the other. I think for that reason, ESPECIALLY since Inga and Fanning are in the same category, it’s going to spread the votes thin for both actresses. She had an excellent performance and is more than worthy of the nomination.
The Pick: Teyana Taylor
It’s between Taylor and Madigan for me. I give the edge to Taylor since she killed the role as a POC freedom fighter in a dramedy while Madigan was a more one dimensional villain in a horror movie.
(Fade: Elle Fanning)
Best Film Editing
(Criteria: how effectively the editor shapes the narrative, controls pacing, and enhances the film's emotional impact through structural, rhythmic, and stylistic choices)
The Favorite: One Battle After Another -290
One Battle After Another is the favorite to win Best Film Editing because the editing isn’t just clean — it’s the engine that drives the entire movie. The pacing is relentless without feeling chaotic, seamlessly balancing large-scale action with intimate character beats so the emotional weight never gets lost in the spectacle. Transitions are sharp, tension builds methodically, and the rhythm of the film keeps audiences locked in from start to finish. In a category where voters often reward movies that feel kinetic and technically precise, this is exactly the kind of showcase that stands out.
The Value: Sinners +1600
Its editing is subtle rather than flashy, built around tension, silence, and carefully timed emotional beats instead of rapid-fire action. The way scenes breathe — then suddenly tighten — creates a rhythm that mirrors the moral pressure cooker at the heart of the story.
The Dark Horse: Marty Supreme +2000
The editing takes risks — sharp tonal pivots, bold structural choices, sequences that deliberately disrupt rhythm — and while that style won’t appeal to every voter, it’s memorable. I would say it fails at creating an emotional impact with its editing and relies mostly on its stylistic choices to separate itself from the field.
The Pick: One Battle After Another
The editing in this film feels like how every big hollywood movie should be. The best editing isn’t something you think about during the movie, but you can FEEL it subconsciously.
(Fade:Sentimental Value)
Best Cinematography
(Criteria: innovative use of lighting, composition, camera movement, and how the visuals enhance the narrative, often favoring long takes or sweeping, complex shots)
The Favorite: One Battle After Another -200
One Battle After Another wins Best Cinematography if voters fall in love with how it weaponizes chaos. The camera doesn’t just observe the action — it dives into it, gliding seamlessly from one room to the next, from foreground to background, stitching together gunfights and explosions in fluid, breathless motion. There’s a relentless energy to the way it tracks through hallways, debris, and crossfire without losing spatial clarity, making the audience feel trapped inside the battle rather than watching from a safe distance. And that bold, burnt-orange color palette — flames, dust, sunset glare bleeding into every frame — gives the film a distinct visual fingerprint that turns destruction into something almost hypnotically beautiful.
The Value: Sinners +200
Where bigger films flex scale, Sinners leans into mood — shadow-drenched interiors, morally murky close-ups, and a camera that lingers just a beat too long, forcing you to sit in the discomfort. The transitions feel deliberate and intimate, sliding from one dimly lit room to the next as if the walls themselves are hiding secrets. Its restrained movement and carefully carved lighting create tension without chaos, and that smoky, low-saturation palette gives the film a haunting visual cohesion.
The Dark Horse: Train Dreams +550
Train Dreams is the dark horse that could quietly derail the field in Best Cinematography. It doesn’t rely on chaos or claustrophobic tension — it breathes. Vast natural landscapes, mist rolling over mountains, lonely rail lines cutting through endless wilderness — the camera feels patient and poetic, letting light and environment do the storytelling. There’s a tactile beauty to the way it captures isolation: soft dawn glow, golden-hour silhouettes, and wide frames that make one man feel impossibly small against the American frontier. If voters gravitate toward cinematography that feels timeless and painterly rather than flashy, Train Dreams has the kind of sweeping, emotionally resonant imagery that lingers long after the credits
The Pick: Sinners
Sinners does the best job of utilizing lighting and camera work to contribute to the feeling and tone of the film.
(Fade: Marty Supreme)
Best Production Design
(Criteria: outstanding achievement in art direction, set decoration, and world-building that elevates a film's narrative)
The Favorite: Frankenstein -1400
The team didn’t just create sets — they constructed an entire ecosystem. From the doctor’s cluttered, electric-charged workshop to a towering, multi-level castle filled with gothic texture, to a ship frozen and splintering in the ice, and even a weathered rural farm, the variety alone showcases insane range. Every location feels tactile and lived-in, layered with grime, history, and purpose. It’s the kind of immersive craftsmanship where you believe every stone, beam, and bolt existed long before the cameras rolled — and that’s exactly what the production design branch loves to reward.
The Value: Sinners +600
Sinners also built a lived-in world but about 50% or more of the movie takes place in the bar/barn. Some parts of the movie felt like you could tell when they were actually on a set vs mostly in front of a greenscreen when they could have done more to actually produce the world they were in.
The Dark Horse: Marty Supreme +2500
When you think of Marty Supreme, it’s not going to be about the production design. They did a great job of combining sets with established structures to make everything feel like a connected world. It has a less than 4% chance to win and a lot of that is likely due to the lack of set production compared to some of the other options.
The Pick: Frankenstein
This award is about world building, and nobody did it like Frankenstein did this year.
(Fade: One Battle After Another)
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
(Criteria: excellence in transforming actors through cosmetics, prosthetics, wigs, and hairstyling, focusing on artistry, technical skill, and suitability to the film's characters)
The Favorite: Frankenstein -3500
Frankenstein took the male heart throb from Euphoria and was tasked with making him a reanimated corpse stitched together. They had to find the balance between looking like a normal person and a sewn quilt, connecting his parts. Nobody did more than this team did in making the monster come to life.
The Value: Sinners +1000
Sinners did a good job of making their characters match the time frame but didn’t do nearly as much as some other films did to really transform the actors into their characters.
The Dark Horse: The Smashing Machine +1400
The team turned the Rock, one of the most noticeable faces in Hollywood, into UFC legend Mark Kerr. That is a huge accomplishment itself. He looked great and you couldn’t tell that he had any cosmetic changes which is a huge compliment. I picked Maestro back in 2023, which lost to Poor Things, based on how well they transformed Bradley Cooper.
The Pick: Frankenstein
I’m not letting the weird film with a person being reanimated beating me again and I’m taking the near lock favorite.
(Fade: The Ugly Stepsister)
Best Costume Design
(Criteria: excellence in creating clothing that enhances a film's narrative, character development, and aesthetic, with a strong, historical preference for period, fantasy, or musical genres)
The Favorite: Frankenstein -3500
Frankenstein has everything for this award being a fantasy film combined with a period piece. From elegant dresses and suits to outfits of fur and rags to try to protect from the winter cold. The variety of clothing and artistic freedom make this a clear front runner and it reminds me a lot of the 2024 winner of this award, Poor Things.
The Value: Hamnet +1400
This film also reminds me of a past nominee, and that is last year's Gladiator 2. Which, funny enough, also included actor Paul Mescal. They did a great job with the costumes, but they are restricted creatively by having to stay true to the period clothing. On top of that, there is very little variety combined with muted colors throughout.
The Dark Horse: Sinners +1400
The characters are dressed sharp and nobody feels out of place. There is enough variety in clothing throughout the movie to make it feel like it is an important part of helping move along the narrative. Sinners nails the costumes in a year with some strong contenders.
The Pick: Frankenstein
Frankenstein has everything that the academy looks for when deciding who to crown for this award. At a 95% probability, Vegas agrees.
(Fade: Marty Supreme)
Best Visual Effects
(Criteria: the contribution of the visual effects to the overall production, and the artistry, skill, and technical fidelity of the illusions)
The Favorite: Avatar: Fire and Ash -2500
Right now, this award isn’t even bettable anymore, meaning that Avatar has all but locked up this award. It won at BAFTA, likely locking it into being un-betable as there are plenty of heavy favorites this year that top out at -3500.
The Value: F1 +1000
While F1 had great visuals, they really excel in their sound design.
The Dark Horse: Sinners +1200
Sinners did a great job of blending in their visual effects but it doesn’t do nearly as much as Avatar.
The Pick: Avatar: Fire and Ash
You literally can’t bet this anymore. Congrats to Avatar.
(Fade: The Lost Bus)
Best Original Screenplay
(Criteria: narrative originality, character depth, dialogue, structure, and thematic resonance of original stories not based on previously published material, screenplays, or television shows)
The Favorite: Sinners -1000
This line changed from -400 to -1000 after BAFTA. HUGE line movement. Sinners made sure to really add depth to their characters that you don’t often see in movies. It is definitely original and structured meticulously.
The Value: Marty Supreme +800
Marty Supreme is fun and it gets some points for originality as well but where it shines the most is in the story structure. The dialogue is great but the characters don’t reach the same depth as Sinners.
The Dark Horse: Sentimental Value +1600
I guess you could say that Sentimental Value is original, but the overarching themes have been done as long as film has been around. The character depth feels like it starts and ends at depression. The +1600 is nice and the fact it is the most serious and artistic option makes it intriguing at least.
The Pick: Sinners
The line change says it all, as Sinners checks all the boxes that the academy looks for when deciding Best Original Screenplay.
(Fade: It Was Just an Accident)
Best Adapted Screenplay
(Criteria: how effectively the material is restructured for the screen, rather than just how faithful it is to the source, often favoring creative reinterpretation)
The Favorite: One Battle After Another -3500
Like Sinners above, OBAA moved from already a huge -2000 favorite, to a -3500 after BAFTA. It is based on a novel from the 1990s called Vineland. So much happened in the movie the book either has to be an exhausting read or the crew hit this movie out of the park. Either way, this should be another easy win for OBAA.
The Value: Train Dreams +1600
So Train Dreams is based on a novella with the same name. What is a novella? I’m glad you asked because I googled it. It's a story that is too long to be a short story but too short to be a novel. While I didn’t love the film, I’m glad I watched it and I’m glad they made it into a movie because I would have never found this story otherwise. It is deeply tragic and beautiful and was absolutely deserving of being made into a film.
The Dark Horse: Bugonia +2500
I honestly thought this was an A24 film when I was done watching it. I absolutely LOVE A24 but man I hate the endings way too often. I’m not going to spoil the movie for you, but I’ll just say that the story is ok but really drags at points. It’s based off of Save the Green Planet which is a korean sci fi movie from 2005. I can’t imagine a remake winning when the original is only about 20 years old.
The Pick: One Battle After Another
The +3500 are un-betable, but their odds are that high for a reason.
(Fade: Hamnet)
Best Casting
(Criteria: creation of emotional authenticity, chemistry, and sometimes unique discoveries of talent)
The Favorite: Sinners -340
I can’t even begin to tell you how funny I find it, that the first year of the Best Casting award’s existence has Sinners as the favorite. Sinners really said you know what’s better than Michael B Jordan? Two Michael B Jordans! HOW’S THAT FOR CASTING! Miles Caton, Omar Miller, Delors Linda, and Wunmi Mosaku all gave good performances, Michael B. Jordan is always great, and you can’t deny the chemistry between him and Hailee Steinfeld. (Sorry Josh Allen). That said, I didn’t love the Hailee Steinfeld casting and was left cringing too frequently at her performance.
The Value: One Battle After Another +240
How good was this cast? It has an Oscar nomination for leading actor, the odds on favorite for supporting actress, and TWO nominations for best supporting actor. The cast feels like a coherent group and there isn’t a cast member I can put my finger on that feels out of place. The chemistry feels organic and Chase Infiniti killed it in a prominent role.
The Dark Horse: Marty Supreme +1800
Kevin O'Leary for unique discovery of talent anyone? Seriously! I enjoyed him playing the role of the big wig jerk! Timothee Chalamet is the odds on favorite for Best Leading Actor and I enjoyed Odessa A'zion’s character as well. Outside of them and my boy Kevin, nothing else made me feel like any other person could have played a role and not had the same exact effect.
The Pick: One Battle After Another
This is the first year for this award, so don’t let the odds sway you here. There is no history to go off of, so choose the one that you personally think will win. For me, that choice is One Battle After Another.
(Fade: The Secret Agent)
Best Animated Feature
(Criteria: artistic excellence, originality, and production quality, regardless of budget or subject matter)
The Favorite: KPop Demon Hunters -1800
It’s hard to argue any animated feature had more of a cultural impact over the past year than KPDH. Little girls dressed up as their favorite characters for Halloween, young adults attended conventions and events with their friends dressed as the singing trio, and countless families across the country sang along to the show’s songs. This wasn’t just a hit in America, it was a global phenomenon. It’s a heavy favorite along with its song Golden for a good reason.
The Value: Zootopia 2 +900
The anxious anticipation of the Zootopia sequel dropped this year and raised the stakes and amount of action from the original film. It again put on a master class in detailed animation and combined it with a story that was worthwhile. This pick has tons of value and is better than any of the animated options we had last year in my opinion.
The Dark Horse: Little Amelie or the Character of Rain +1100
I gave the dark horse pick to Little Amelie or the Character of Rain due to it being more unique with a different art style. It looks almost like a moving painting and tackles some difficult parts of life in an engaging way. Throughout the film, the biggest theme seems to be dealing with loss and the pain and additional loss of one's own identity in the process. Outside of that, this film is kind of weird in a way that feels unnecessary. It starts with Amelie believing that she is God and crescendo’s with her trying to commit suicide due to her grief at the ripe old age of 2 or 3 years old? Yeaaaaah.
The Pick: KPop Demon Hunters
The only real competition to KPDH is Zootopia 2. Both were massive movies that were big successes with their demographic, but the global reach and obsession as well as the originality and ambitious art style of KPDH should result in it receiving a mass majority of the votes.
(Fade: Elio)
Best Documentary
(Criteria: focus on creative, non-fiction storytelling (over 40 minutes) that explores cultural, social, or historical subjects)
The Favorite: The Perfect Neighbor -240
I saw this film way before it was nominated for an Oscar and I wasn’t shocked at all when it did receive the nomination. Gone are the days of documentaries being boring retelling of historical events. This film is entirely through the lens of police body cams as they respond to countless calls by a woman that can only be described as “unraveling mentally”. This documentary will make you angry, cry, and question how the events in the film could have unfolded differently.
The Value: Come See Me in the Good Light +650
This is the typical Oscar award bait that people talk about. It is very artsy, plenty of well shot B-roll, a focus on poetry, and a battle against cancer being fought by a lesbian couple. It is an emotional film and exposes audiences to a modern day poet that others may not have known about, including myself. It is interesting to watch someone juggle balancing doing everything they want to before they pass and having a good quality of life up until the end. The film ends with Andrea being alive and contemplative but she would later pass away at age 49 in July of 2025. I could see this documentary receiving the award to further honor the legacy of the American poet.
The Dark Horse: The Alabama Solution +1400
As stated previously, there are tons of movies to make you cry or be angry after watching this year but this one will leave you truly pissed off. It shows the abysmal state of the Alabama state prisons. The film masterfully stitches cell phone video calls, news clips, and their own footage together giving you the full picture of the events happening in. It shows government corruption, inmate abuse to the point of death, and shows just how deep the issues with Alabama's prisons (and prisons around the US) run.
The Pick: The Alabama Solution
I think the content covered, variety of media used, and social impact give The Alabama Solution a great chance to win, even at long odds. The editing for this Documentary really stands out and is a masterclass in pacing and effective storytelling.
(Fade: Cutting Through Rocks)
Best Sound
(Criteria: how sound enhances storytelling, emotional impact, and technical innovation)
The Favorite: F1 -1000
The academy loves roaring engines. Within the last decade Top Gun: Maverick and Ford vs Ferrari both took home this award. One of the winners from Top Gun: Maverick, Al Nelson, was also a large part in the sound design for F1. In racing films, so much of the action and storytelling is done through the sounds of the engine and the wheels braking. Their other favorite genre in this category is war films which we lack entirely this year.
The Value: Sinners +600
Sinners has guns, cars, and music making it a strong option for Best Sound. An interesting story about the sound of Sinners is that one of the sound designers felt that the Blues music that was recorded in the 30s may have sounded a little different live. That there has been some distortion due to the inferior recording technology they had. This led to a rebuilding of 30s blues as well as bringing in a 90 year old who is world renowned for his ability to play the harmonica. They hid him behind extras and is the one you actually hear on the harmonica.
The Dark Horse: One Battle After Another +1600
Like Sinners above, this film has plenty of cars and guns. There is just a ton in this movie and the sound doesn’t feel like something of note in this film. It has a 9% chance to win based on these odds and I would have to agree, as that's about the same percentage the sound design adds to the film.
The Pick: F1
Sinners may have a slight edge in the technical innovation category, but no film has sound that enhances the storytelling like F1.
(Fade: Frankenstein)
Best Original Score
(Criteria: effectiveness, craftsmanship, creative substance, and relevance to the dramatic whole)
The Favorite: Sinners -3500
I don’t think anyone can argue that no film this year did more with music and musical innovation than Sinners did. It’s soulful, sharp, and makes you want to tap your foot to the beat. It’s honestly something you could listen to as instrumental music if you liked the movie or not.
The Value: One Battle After Another +1100
This score is very strings heavy and has a much different vibe from Sinners above. It is serious, slow, and plodding while being highlighted by piano serving as almost the voice for the piece.
The Dark Horse: Hamnet +1600
Hamnet actually has an interesting score in my opinion. It is light and airy while also somehow being emotional and heavy. It hits notes and feels uplifting before dragging you back down into the next string of notes. The best way to describe this score is like an ocean wave that gives and takes equally in a beautiful way. It isn’t as catchy as the Sinners score but is one I will likely be returning to as I find it oddly therapeutic to listen to.
The Pick: Sinners
I have to set my personal bias towards Hamnet aside here and give Sinners its flowers it rightfully earned.
(Fade: Frankenstein)
Best Original Song
(Criteria: effectiveness, craftsmanship, and thematic relevance within the movie)
The Favorite: Golden -1400
The insane odds on this pick may actually be too low. This price suggests Golden has a 93.33% chance to win but it should be 99%. This song was trending on every social platform, had kids and parents singing along, and has incredible relevance to the theme and story of the movie. Golden has no value, but that's because this is as close to a sure thing as you can get.
The Value: I Lied to You +550
Even if you don’t like Jazz or the Blues, it’s hard to not bop along to this song. It accompanies one of the most memorable parts of the film, as Sammy Moore gets his chance to play and wow a crowd. The song is great and is the only other song with a chance this year but doesn’t reach the same heights as Golden.
The Dark Horse: Dear Me +2500
Kesha did the best she could but the lyrics feel like they’re from a middle schoolers journal and I would be embarrassed at the level of self fellatio. The Diane Warren song and film both fall short of expectations but in a category that's all but wrapped up, this is the long shot I would play if I had to.
The Pick: Golden
This is my most confident pick of the entire ceremony. Anything besides Golden is a robbery.
(Fade: Train Dreams)
Best International Film
(Criteria: must have over 50% non-English dialogue, adhere to specific, consecutive theatrical run requirements in their country of origin, and be submitted by authorized national organizations)
The Favorite: Sentimental Value -250
This honestly feels like they’re cheating. This film pushed as close to that 50% non-english dialogue as possible. This is technically a Norwegian film despite them speaking plenty of english. It has plenty of award worthy performances and is the odds on favorite for a reason as it has the best cinematography and editing of the films listed.
The Value: The Secret Agent +175
The Brazilian film actually feels like an international film. While I didn’t personally love the movie, the actors gave great performances and the filming and editing feels like something out of Hollywood. The story is better than Sentimental Value’s story and also feels more impactful. It reminds me a lot of last year's winner, I’m Still Here.
The Dark Horse: It was Just an Accident +1400
This category also feels like a two-horse race, but at least the story was interesting in this film. The acting is…not good. The pacing is off and the editing leaves something to be desired. Altogether, it feels like a foreign movie and not in a good way, but they get points for originality.
The Pick: The Secret Agent
I’m going to take the value on the film with a better story that feels truly international.
(Fade: The Voice of Hind Rajab)
Best Documentary Short
(Criteria: quality, originality, and impact rather than production cost or subject matter)
The Favorite: All the Empty Rooms -125
A news reporter who covers school shootings nationally decides to start a project on his own that commemorates the lives lost and the pain that families carry while they try to deal with life? What an incredible idea while really making the “names on TV” real. Seeing their rooms left the way they were, the day they left for school but never returned, is haunting. It has incredible quality and editing to go along with the tear jerking content.
The Value: Armed Only With a Camera +300
No hate here, but I believe the last few years we have been flooded with documentaries and shorts about journalists in the line of fire. Porcelain War and 20 Days in Mariupol also feature people “Armed with Cameras” making this feel not very original. Especially with it being based around the Ukraine/Russian conflict as well. Its biggest trouble may be the fact that it fails to separate from the field.
The Dark Horse: The Devil is Busy +500
The Devil is Busy feels fresh and original while being crafted very well. You follow an abortion clinic from opening to close to see what the daily grind at one of these clinics is like. While it has some memorable moments, at the end of the day, you’re following around someone during their work shift. There are plenty of down moments where it drags.
The Pick: All the Empty Rooms
This is a short that people should really go out of their way to watch. It will tear the heart out of your chest while making you feel even more connected to the tragedies that are occurring in our country. This short is incredibly impactful and is the best in the category by far in my opinion.
(Fade: Perfectly a Strangeness)
Best Live Action Short
(Criteria: artistic excellence, specifically focusing on originality, storytelling, and production quality)
The Favorite: The Singers +125
Singers checks off the artistic excellence and production quality boxes without doubt. My main hesitancy is that it isn’t original and there isn’t much of a story. There are a few “side stories” but overall, this is a short film about a singing competition in a sad bar.
The Value: Two People Exchanging Saliva +135
Man, this short is bizarre. That said, it checks all the boxes for this category. It’s extremely original, is super artistic, and is beautifully produced. Is it interesting and something you would recommend? Meh. It feels like another example of Oscar bait. It doesn’t do much for the viewer besides checking the Oscar criteria boxes.
The Dark Horse: Jane Austen’s Period Drama +1400
This one was my personal favorite. It was funny and had great production quality. I felt like I was cheating by getting to watch it for free on YouTube. If you haven’t seen it yet, I recommend you give it a watch. As far as Oscars betting is concerned, it isn’t very artistic, and doesn’t have a story that the academy is going to eat up.
The Pick: Two People Exchanging Saliva
I’m biting on the Oscar bait. It feels different and new but in a good way.
(Fade: A Friend of Dorothy)
Best Animated Short
(Criteria: originality, entertainment value, and production quality, with a maximum runtime of 40 minutes)
The Favorite: Butterfly +110
Personally, I’m not a fan of the art style. But I’m also not a voter so it doesn’t matter what I think. It starts slow until you realize what is really happening. The sadness theme carries into the shorts as well as you’ll likely end up with a lump in your throat by the end. It is based around a true olympic athlete and is a story I had never heard of making it a worthwhile watch.
The Value: The Girl Who Cried Pearls +150
As of the time this article comes out, it is unavailable to view in the United States.
The Dark Horse: Retirement Plan +450
This short is relatable, contemplative, and hilarious. It’s a free watch on YouTube and I highly recommend checking it out. The simplicity along with the content and themes make this a very interesting dark horse in a category that anybody can win.
The Pick: Retirement Plan
I really like the value that we get with Retirement Plan. With all the depressing films and shorts this year, this one really stands out. It’s simple, and that’s ok.
(Fade: The Three Sisters)
