Welcome to English Premier League Best Bets, a Bettor in Green Article Series where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matchweek.

For an overview of what to expect in this Series, check out my 2025/26 EPL Season Preview and Futures article here.

Recap:

Manchester City kept up the pressure on Arsenal in the title race with a win over Newcastle on Saturday, but Arsenal then secured a 1-4 victory over their North London rivals, Spurs.

We have a battle brewing in the fight to avoid relegation and stay in the League, with West Ham currently occupying the 18th and final relegation spot. However, Nottingham Forest are only 2 points above them, and Spurs are only 4 points above the drop zone.

We had a bit of a hot and cold week for bets, going 3-0 for Best Bets but 0-5 Across the Globe.

Upcoming Matches:

Matchweek 28 begins on Friday, as Wolves host Aston Villa.

On Saturday, we begin with Bournemouth hosting Sunderland, have 3 matches at 10:00 a.m. EST, and then ends with Leeds hosting Manchester City.

We have 4 matches on Sunday, the marquee match being Arsenal hosting Chelsea.

Let’s get to the bets:

Best Bets:

Pick #1: Aston Villa Moneyline -120 (Feb. 27, 2026; 3:00 p.m. EST):

First, I’m looking to the opening match of the weekend, as Wolves host Aston Villa.

I’ve been fading Wolves often this season, and for good reason, as they sit at the bottom of the table and have a -33 goal differential this season, scoring 18 and conceding 51.

While Wolves have had a slight uptick in form, most notably their draw against Arsenal last week, they’re still all but guaranteed to be relegated and have significantly less quality than Villa.

Aston Villa remain in 3rd and, while they’ve dropped out of the primary conversation for the title race, they’re still fighting to keep their spot in the top-4, with Manchester United hot on their heels.

Villa are 3rd for goals conceded, which bodes well for playing Wolves, who have scored the fewest goals in the League.

Wolves also lost their striker, Jørgen Strand Larsen to Crystal Palace, though they haven’t missed him much, as he only scored one EPL goal for them this season.

Aston Villa are well-coached by Unai Emery, who has a strong tactical mind. Wolves like to play 3 at the back with wingbacks, so they’ll sit deep and try to avoid pressure, but Villa have a creative attacking mid in Morgan Rogers and either Ollie Watkins or Tammy Abraham at striker, which should allow Villa to slip through the middle and find a goal.

Pick #2: 2-Leg SGP: Liverpool Moneyline and Under 4.5 Goals +100 (Feb. 28, 2026; 10:00 a.m. EST):

For our next Best Bet, I’m backing Liverpool at home against West Ham, parlaying it with Under 4.5 total goals.

Liverpool have kicked it in gear after Salah returned from the African Cup of Nations. They have 4 wins in 5 matches in all competitions, with only a loss to Manchester City in that stretch.

Liverpool also have the benefit of playing at Anfield, a notoriously difficult venue. While Liverpool have scored 21 goals at home and 21 away, they’ve only conceded 14 when at home, compared to 21 conceded away this season.

Their defensive form at home is part of why I’ve parlayed the Under 4.5 goals with their moneyline, to bring the odds to even.

West Ham, while struggling for survival, will face a tough test playing at Anfield. They tend to operate more on a counter attack with their pace, which could make it difficult for Liverpool’s defense, that may not have as much pace.

However, Liverpool’s control of the midfield should help them defend against a quick counter.

Another reason to back the Under here is the criticisms of Liverpool’s inability to break down a low-block team. They’ve scored more goals when playing teams that don’t sit as deep, such as their 4-1 win over Newcastle. West Ham will sit and absorb pressure, seeking to spring a counter while Liverpool try to break them down.

While I think Liverpool will get it done, I can see this match ending 2-0 or 2-1 for the hosts.

Liverpool have only had 3 EPL matches end over 4.5 goals in their last 15, while West Ham have only had 2 of their last 15 matches end over 4.5.

Pick #3: Tottenham Hotspur to Win Either Half +105 (March 1, 2026; 9:00 a.m. EST):

For our final Best Bet, I’m looking at a London Derby between Fulham and Tottenham Hotspur, backing Spurs to Win Either Half.

Spurs are truly in the relegation battle, sitting only 4 points above the relegation zone. A drop to the 2nd tier (called the Championship) would be catastrophic for the club, who are currently competing in the Champions League and have arguably the best stadium in England, perhaps one of the best in the world.

Spurs fired coach Thomas Frank and brought in Igor Tudor on an interim basis, with his first match in charge being the North London Derby, where they lost 1-4.

Spurs have actually been a better team on the road this season, with a record of 2-4-8 at home and 5-4-4 on the road. They now have a refresh by way of a new manager, along with the motivation of avoiding relegation, where they’ll need to treat every EPL match as a “do or die” situation.

A big concern for Spurs, which has been ongoing this season, is the amount of injuries. They are severely depleted in defense, especially considering the suspension to Cristian Romero, one of their star center backs.

Fulham are a strong team and, while they had a small dip in form at the beginning of February, they’ve won their last 2 matches in all competitions.

Raul Jiménez is finding his best form again for Fulham, which could ultimately prove dangerous for Spurs.

However, Spurs will be eager to get revenge for their last match against Fulham, where two early mistakes led to a 2-goal advantage for Fulham in an embarrassing performance for Spurs. And that motivation, coupled with the need to avoid relegation, I see Spurs picking up a point against Fulham and winning at least one half.

Across the Globe:

• 2-Leg Parlay: Como and Inter Milan Moneylines -128 (Italy; Serie A)
• Atlético Madrid Moneyline -150 (Spain; La Liga)
• LAFC Moneyline +105 (USA; MLS)
• Rangers Moneyline +115 (Scotland; Premiership)
• FC Copenhagen Moneyline -140 (Denmark; Superligaen)

Season Record:

Best Bets: 40-41

Across the Globe: 64-72