Value Fighter: Marlon Vera, $7,300, (+235)

This is exactly the kind of spot I love to attack. He’s one of the cheapest options on the slate, he’s on a three-fight skid, and he’s facing a guy in Martinez who’s coming off a big win over Rob Font — which means nobody is clicking Chito this week. Low ownership? Yes please. That’s how you win tournaments. Vera is notoriously durable — we’ve literally seen him eat O’Malley’s knee and keep moving forward — so the idea that he just gets steamrolled doesn’t line up with history. Vegas has the over 2.5 rounds sitting at -425, which tells you this isn’t expected to be some quick blowout. If this stretches, Vera can absolutely stack volume, mix in damage, and make it gritty. He has the experience edge, he’s fought elite competition for years, and he’s always live to flip a fight late. At his salary, he doesn’t even need to dominate to return value — he just needs to be competitive and upright. And if he pulls the upset? He’s a slate breaker.

Fade Fighter: Ernesta Kareckaite, $9,100, (-175)

No hate — but how is she over $9K? She’s the older fighter walking into a matchup against a hungry Tarin making her debut in her home country with everything to gain. I’m not even convinced Ernesta wins this fight outright, let alone justifies that salary. Since 2020, every one of her fights has gone to decision. That’s a massive red flag in DFS when you’re paying a premium. Vegas has the over juiced to -345, so they clearly don’t see her suddenly turning into some finishing machine either. And yes, she’s a -175 favorite — but this isn’t the NFL or NBA. In MMA, -175 is far from dominant. One mistake, one exchange, and the whole thing flips. At that price, you need ceiling, not “probably wins a decision.” I’d rather take a cheaper dog with upside than pay top dollar for limited scoring potential in what could easily be a competitive fight.