Welcome to English Premier League Best Bets, a Bettor in Green Article Series where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matchweek.

For an overview of what to expect in this Series, check out my 2025/26 EPL Season Preview and Futures article here.

Recap:

There wasn’t too much change at the top of the EPL this week, as both Arsenal and Manchester City won, keeping the title race close, with City 5 points behind but with a game-in-hand.

There wasn’t too much change in the relegation battle, either, as Burnley, West Ham, Nottingham Forest, and Spurs all lost this weekend. Props to Wolves, who did win, though they still remain at the bottom.

The real movement occurred in the battle for the European qualifying places, as Manchester United jumped into 3rd, thanks to an Aston Villa loss to Wolves, and with Liverpool hot on their heels in 5th.

We hit 1-2 for Best Bets, as Aston Villa lost and Liverpool won, but scored more than 4.5 total goals in the match. I’m kicking myself, as I almost went with Liverpool -1.5 as the Best Bet, but was nervous about a 1-0 or 2-1 result. Spurs did win the 2nd half, despite losing the match, giving us the win on that bet.

Across the Globe we hit 3-2. We almost won our Rangers bet, but for a late equalizer by Celtic in the Old Firm Derby.

Upcoming Matches:

This week, we have a slate of midweek matches, starting with 4 matches on Tuesday.

We have 5 matches on Wednesday, culminating in a fun matchup between Newcastle United and Manchester United.

The week ends with a London Derby on Thursday, as Tottenham Hotspur host Crystal Palace.

Let’s get to the bets:

Best Bets:

Pick #1: 2-Leg Parlay: Liverpool and Manchester City Moneylines -106 (March 3, 2026; 3:15 p.m. EST and March 4, 2026; 2:30 p.m. EST):

First, I’m looking at a parlay of two favorites this week, Liverpool and Manchester City.

Liverpool play a Wolves team that, while they’ve done a bit better as of late, are still at the bottom of the table. They have had some good results recently, most notably a 2-2 draw with Arsenal and a 2-0 win against Aston Villa, but so have Liverpool.

Liverpool struggled to reach the extraordinary heights of last season, but now seem to have settled into a groove while pushing for a top-4 place. They’re 7-1-2 in their last 10 matches, having won their last 4 straight in all competitions.

Their last match against West Ham was one of their better showings, securing a 5-2 win with 4 different goalscorers and an own goal for the 5th.

Liverpool were criticized earlier for being unable to break down a low block, though they seem to be finding creative ways of doing so through set pieces or through the likes of Ekitike or Mac Allister.

Liverpool need this win to keep fighting for a Champions League qualifying spot, which is guaranteed for the top-4 (most likely top-5) and will feel this is a game they should win.

Funny enough, these clubs will play one another again at the weekend in the FA Cup.

The other match is Manchester City against Nottingham Forest.

Manchester City remain 5 points below Arsenal in the title race, but with a game-in-hand. They also are yet to play Arsenal for the 2nd time this season in the EPL. If they beat Arsenal in that game while winning their game-in-hand, they could still go on to rob Arsenal of this season’s title.

To do that, though, they’ll have to be just about perfect through the rest of their schedule, which will become increasingly more difficult with them playing the Carabao Cup Final, a tough FA Cup match against Newcastle, and Champions League knockout matches, starting with Real Madrid.

They’ll need to take it one match at a time and will look to break down the Tricky Trees of Nottingham Forest at home. 

City will likely be without Erling Haaland, though Semenyo has stepped up to fill the void for goals in his absence. City also will have plenty of other quality players, such as Cherki, Marmoush, etc.

Forest, on the other hand, had a one-match bump after signing new manager Vítor Pereira, but have the lost the 3 matches thereafter.

Forest need a win to help guarantee their safety, though they’ll be looking at a few other matches this season to help secure safety, with this game being a tough challenge for the 17th-placed squad.

Pick #2: Crysencio Summerville (West Ham) 2+ Shots -135 (March 4, 2026; 2:30 p.m. EST):

For our next Best Bet, I'm looking to a player prop that served us well a couple weeks ago, West Ham’s Crysencio Summerville to have 2+ shots.

West Ham like to operate on the counter-attack, relying on the quick pace in the wide areas to get forward and strike. This is perfect for a pacey player like Summerville.

Fulham are 9th for average possession and are comfortable having the ball, which should work well for West Ham’s counter-attacking style.

Summerville has been in amazing form as of late and has looked like West Ham’s best player for many portions of their recent matches.

I’m relying on some history here, as he has had 2+ shots in 8 of his last 10 matches.

I don’t often like betting on Shots on Target, but Summerville has had at least 1 shot on target in each of his last 10 games, so I’ll also be dabbling on Summerville 1+ Shot on Target -115.

The best line I’ve found for this is over at DraftKings.

Pick #3: Manchester United to Win Either Half -130 (March 4, 2026; 3:15 p.m. EST):

For our final Best Bet, I’m backing Manchester United to keep their good form under Michael Carrick and win either half against Newcastle.

Manchester United have been doing significantly better since firing Ruben Amorim. Carrick, the interim manager, has got his players playing in better positions and looking solid. They now sit in 3rd-place, and are undefeated in 7 matches (6W, 1D).

Newcastle, on the other hand, have lost 5 of their last 6 EPL matches.

One of the biggest factors for this bet is Newcastle’s gauntlet of a schedule. They had to play in the Playoff Rounds of the Champions League, and now will face Manchester United in the EPL, Manchester City in the FA Cup, Barcelona in the UCL, Chelsea in EPL, Barcelona again, and then Sunderland. This will be a tough stretch for them.

Man U won’t play again after this match until March 15. In that time, Newcastle will have already faced Manchester City, Barcelona, and Chelsea.

This will be a tough match, though I expect Man U can at least win a half.

Across the Globe:

• Rayo Vallecano v Real Oviedo Under 2.5 Goals -140 (Spain; La Liga)
• Young Boys Win or Draw -160 (Switzerland; Super League)
• Real Sociedad Moneyline +115 (Spain; Copa del Rey)
• Boca Juniors to Win Either Half +100 (Argentina; Liga Profesional)
• Lyon to Qualify for Next Round -130 (France; Coupe de France)

Season Record:

Best Bets: 41-43

Across the Globe: 67-74