It’s the regular season finale and senior day in Ann Arbor as Michigan hosts rival Michigan State. While this rivalry always means something, the stakes are a bit different for each team.
Michigan has already wrapped up the Big Ten regular season title and the No. 1 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. They’re also likely locked into a No. 1 seed for March Madness, and they already beat Michigan State in East Lansing earlier this season. Because of that, it’s fair to wonder how intense Michigan’s urgency will be today. As a Michigan fan, I’m hoping they still bring the energy to shut down Sparty, but it’s at least something in the back of my mind.
For Michigan State, this game matters more in the standings. A win could lock up the No. 2 seed in the Big Ten Tournament, and the Spartans are clearly hungry for revenge after the first matchup. Plus, this is the time of year when Tom Izzo teams always seem to start heating up.
I lean toward Michigan winning the game, but I’m not confident enough to bet the spread. Instead, I see value on a couple player props.
Jeremy Fears Jr. — Over 7.5 Assists
Fears went off in the first meeting against Michigan, finishing with 31 points, 7 assists, and 5 rebounds. He also made 12 free throws, which inflated that scoring total, and I don’t expect him to get the same whistle in Ann Arbor.
Michigan will likely emphasize slowing him down as a scorer, which could force the ball out of his hands more often. That should create more playmaking opportunities. Fears also leads the Big Ten in assists, averaging 9.1 per game, so I like the value on over 7.5 assists.
Trey McKenney — Over 8.5 Points
Similar to Fears, Yaxel Lendeborg had a monster game in the first matchup with 26 points and 12 rebounds. Michigan will definitely make slowing him down a priority, so I’m staying away from his props today.
Instead, I like Trey McKenney over 8.5 points. The true freshman is a Michigan native, and rivalry games like this often bring extra motivation. McKenney has the ability to heat up quickly, whether it’s from beyond the arc or with mid-range pull-ups.
With Elliot Cadeau struggling lately and backup point guard LJ Cason out for the season with a torn ACL, McKenney should see plenty of opportunities to reach nine points.
Other Lean Plays
Two Michigan players I like today but couldn’t find props for are Roddy Gayle Jr. and Nimari Burnett, both over their points totals if available. Gayle looked excellent defensively in the Wolverines’ last game and could be gaining confidence heading into March. Burnett is streaky, but the senior is always capable of randomly erupting for 20+ points, and senior day against your biggest rival would be a perfect spot.
Let me know who you’re backing in this rivalry matchup — and get ready for plenty more college basketball betting content as March Madness approaches.
