Welcome in to Champions League Best Bets, brought to you by Bettor In Green, where we recap the latest Champions League action and look ahead with my favorite bets for the upcoming matches.
Recap:
The Playoff Round has concluded, and not without a few surprises along the way!
The UCL this season has not been great to Italian teams, with Napoli crashing out in the League Phase, then Juventus and Inter Milan losing in the Playoff Round, to Galatasaray and Bodø/Glimt, respectively.
The only Italian team left in the competition is Atalanta, who had a great 2nd leg against Borussia Dortmund, knocking them out with an aggregate score of 4-3.
Some favorites also made it through, as PSG, Real Madrid, and Newcastle all advanced, though Newcastle was arguably the only club this round to advance rather comfortably.
The biggest shock, as stated briefly above, was Bodø/Glimt continuing their fairytale run, beating last year’s runners-up, Inter Milan, without much fuss.
Personally, I did quite poorly this round with Best Bets, going 0-3 for the 2nd leg and 1-5 for the Playoff Round as a whole. I did not foresee Atalanta’s strong comeback, nor did I expect Bodø/Glimt to beat Inter at the San Siro. We almost won with PSG and Real Madrid, but for a short-handed, stoppage-time goal for Monaco to draw with PSG.
Upcoming Matches:
The Round of 16 is here! The top 8 clubs will now face the 8 that made it through the Playoff Round in a 2-legged affair, with the top 8 clubs playing at home for the 2nd leg.
Exciting matches include another edition of Real Madrid vs Manchester City, who have met in the UCL in each of the last 4 seasons, as well as a repeat of the Club World Cup, as PSG and Chelsea square off.
You can stream all of the matches here in the US on Paramount+!
Let’s get to the bets:
Best Bets:
Pick #1: Barcelona Moneyline +120 (March 10, 2026; 4:00 p.m. EST):
For my first bet, I’m looking to an exciting tie between Newcastle United and Barcelona.
Barcelona will be looking for a little redemption in this season’s UCL, after losing in the Semi-Final last season to Inter in arguably the best knockout tie of the entire season last year.
Barcelona are still playing a style of football that brought them success for most of last year, playing a high line at the back and looking to outscore their opponents with a high-press and strong attacking play.
Barça’s teenage sensation, Lamine Yamal, is finding good form as of late, having scored his first hat-trick in La Liga at the end of February, becoming the youngest to net a hat-trick in La Liga history.
I have been fading Newcastle lately, to varying levels of success, primarily due to their dip in form in early February and because of their fixture-heavy schedule.
Newcastle just lost to Manchester City in the FA Cup on Saturday. They did win against Manchester United in their last EPL match, though they played that game with 10 men for the entire 2nd half. The match before that, they lost 2-3 to Everton at home. Newcastle will then have to play Chelsea away in between this Champions League clash.
Barcelona have been more consistent as of late, winning their last 4 matches, while only conceding 1 goal, whereas Newcastle have not kept a clean sheet since mid-January.
With the consistency of Barça and inconsistency of Newcastle, along with their busy schedule, I expect a strong showing from Barcelona in this first leg.
Pick #2: 2-Leg Parlay: Atlético Madrid and Arsenal Moneylines +137 (March 10, 2026; 4:00 p.m. EST and March 11, 2026; 1:45 p.m. EST):
Next, I’m looking at a 2-leg parlay, backing Arsenal, while fading their rivals, Tottenham.
The first match of this parlay is Atlético Madrid taking on Tottenham Hotspur.
I am a Spurs fan, so it pains me as a fan to fade them, but they have not looked good and are deep in crisis at the moment.
They have yet to win an EPL match in 2026 and have scored the fewest points in the EPL since the start of 2026. They fired Thomas Frank and appointed Igor Tudor, who has lost his first 3 matches in charge, making it 5 losses in a row for Spurs.
Spurs are still dealing with a huge injury crisis, giving Tudor little with which to work. Tudor has abandoned his favorite formation with 3 at the back, yet neither a back-3 or back-4 has brought him any success in North London.
While Spurs have done better in the UCL this year, it’s hard to see them continuing that success when they are legitimately fighting to avoid relegation in the EPL, sitting only 1 point above the relegation zone and facing a trip to Anfield to play Liverpool in the EPL at the weekend.
Atléti, on the other hand, have won 4 of their last 5, their only loss coming in the 2nd leg of the Copa del Rey against Barcelona, where they still advanced. In the UCL, they drew 3-3 against Club Brugge away, but then got a comfortable 4-1 win at home.
The other match is Arsenal, as they travel to play Bayer Leverkusen.
Arsenal is arguably the strongest team in Europe, and are currently favorites to win the UCL. The consensus seems to be they got a favorable draw in the UCL bracket, starting with Atalanta.
Arsenal are first in the EPL and haven’t lost in 11 matches, going 9-2-0 in that stretch. They’re relatively healthy and will look to get a lead before heading home for the 2nd leg.
Leverkusen, on the other hand, are 6th in the Bundesliga, are fighting for a Champions League spot for next season, and have only won 1 match in their last 5.
Pick #3: PSG Moneyline -110 (March 11, 2026; 4:00 p.m. EST):
Finally, I’m looking to the Club World Cup rematch, backing PSG to beat Chelsea at home.
There are a few reasons I like this bet. One is that PSG will likely be looking for redemption from their CWC loss, despite being favorites for that match last summer.
Another is the schedule congestion for each club. Chelsea played midweek last week, while PSG didn’t, then PSG played their recent weekend match on Friday, while Chelsea played on Saturday, though admittedly that was an FA Cup match against Wrexham.
PSG will then have the weekend off, while Chelsea will host Newcastle in the EPL.
I also like the fact that PSG will be at home, getting the benefit of their home crowd and Chelsea having to travel.
Both clubs are in good form, with Chelsea arguably in better form than PSG under Liam Rosenior. Rosenior should also be quite familiar with PSG, having played them as Strasbourg manager in Ligue 1.
Despite this, I still like the firepower of PSG to get the win, especially since Chelsea have only kept 1 clean sheet in their last 10 matches, which was against Hull City in the FA Cup.
Season Record:
League Phase: 12-12
Playoff Round: 1-5
