Welcome to English Premier League Best Bets, a Bettor in Green Article Series where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matchweek.
For an overview of what to expect in this Series, check out my 2025/26 EPL Season Preview and Futures article here.
Recap:
Midweek matches in the EPL often bring some excitement and drama, with this week being no exception!
Tuesday brought us a huge upset, as last-place Wolves continued their recent trend of giant-killing, beating Liverpool 2-1.
On Wednesday, there was a big result in the title race, as Arsenal won their match against Brighton and Manchester City only managed a draw against Nottingham Forest.
Arsenal now sit 7 points clear at the top, though they’ve played one more match than their closest challenger, Manchester City.
On Thursday, Spurs lost their 5th match in a row, now sitting only 1 point above the relegation zone, since West Ham won and Nottingham Forest drew this week. The concern of dropping to the 2nd-tier is now a very real possibility for a club that considers itself one of the “Big 6.”
One of the wildest moments of the weekend was 10-man Newcastle scoring a stoppage-time winner against Manchester United.
We hit 1-2 for Best Bets, as Liverpool lost and Manchester United failed to win a half, despite being up a man for the entire 2nd half. We did hit our Summerville shots prop, as well as our bonus prop on him.
Across the Globe we hit 3-2, winning on Young Boys, Real Sociedad, and Boca Juniors. We almost won with Lyon to Qualify, though they lost by 1 on penalty kicks.
Upcoming Matches:
This week, we have 5 matches on Saturday, 4 matches on Sunday, and one match on Monday, as Brentford host Wolves.
The matches this week will start a little later than usual for those of us who have already started daylight saving time, as England won’t spring forward until the end of March.
One exciting match on Saturday is between Chelsea and Newcastle, clubs that both played in the Champions League this week and will have a big Champions League match next week.
On Sunday, we will have a battle between the 3rd and 4th place clubs, Manchester United hosting Aston Villa. Sunday ends with Liverpool hosting Tottenham, as Liverpool looks to break into the and Tottenham fight to avoid relegation.
Let’s get to the bets:
Best Bets:
Pick #1: Arsenal to Win to Nil +105 (March 14, 2026; 1:30 p.m. EST):
For my first Best Bet, I’m backing the expected Champions to beat Everton to nil.
Arsenal have both scored the most goals and conceded the least goals this season. They also have the most clean sheets in the EPL with 14.
Arsenal have received some criticism this season for their over-reliance on defensive structure and set-piece goals. While I think this is a bit unfair to them (even coming from a Spurs fan), Brighton manager Fabian Hürzeler called them out last week, saying only one team (his Brighton side) showed up to play football.
However, there is something to be said about the defensive structure of Arsenal. They’ve been the most defensively-sound in the league. And with the title race theirs to lose, they’ll need to grind out a win this week at home.
Everton, their opponents, have a strong away record, but also have a significantly higher expected goals allowed (xGA) tally than in reality. What this indicates to me is they have let the opposition get into good scoring positions, but have relied on luck (or more likely the skill of goalkeeper Jordan Pickford) to keep goals out.
This should be a cagey match, and I expect a 1-0 type of grind for this Arsenal side at home.
Arsenal do have a big Champions League match coming up, though they’ll need to find a way to prioritize both competitions at this stage.
Pick #2: Crystal Palace to Win Either Half -125 (March 15, 2026; 10:00 a.m. EST):
For our next Best Bet, I'm taking Crystal Palace to Win Either Half against Leeds United.
Crystal Palace were in a major slump in the middle part of the season, with a run of 12 matches without a win. They’ve turned that around a bit, going 4-2-2 in the 8 matches since.
There are 2 man reasons I like this bet. First, Crystal Palace are at home and, while they don’t have the strongest home record, they won’t have to travel. They did just play in the UEFA Conference League on Thursday, though they were also at home.
Second, they have a significantly higher xG than actual goals. Their xG total sits at 45.1, while they’ve only scored 33. They’re getting into good positions, just not getting the final result.
With new striker Jørgen Strand Larsen getting comfortable, they should have options between him or Jean-Philippe Mateta.
Leeds are in a relegation battle, which could provide some extra motivation, though I’m backing the uptick in form for Palace.
I actually like Crystal Palace Moneyline +145 as well, though am playing it safe with winning either half.
Pick #3: Nottingham Forest v Fulham Both Teams to Score -130 (March 15, 2026; 10:00 a.m. EST):
For our final Best Bet, I’m taking BTTS for the Nottingham Forest v Fulham match.
Nottingham Forest are the bookies’ favorite to win this match, probably because they are playing at home and are on the cusp of the relegation zone, meaning they need a win to help avoid the drop.
However, they aren’t in particularly good form, as they’re winless in their last 5, with 4 of those being losses. They’ve only won one match in the 6 they’ve played under new coach Vítor Pereira, his first match in charge against Fenerbahçe in the Europa League.
Despite this poor record, they have still managed to score goals in 3 of their 5-match winless run. They’ve managed to score in 7 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
They’ve also been conceding goals, having kept a clean sheet in only 3 of their last 10 in all competitions.
They’re 19th for goals per match, so part of the issue may be scoring, though I like their odds to get a goal at home and in a relegation fight.
Fulham, their opponents, haven’t kept a clean sheet in 14 matches across all competitions, so if the trend continues they’ll allow a Forest goal. In those 14 matches, Fulham have also scored in 10.
One concern for this bet is that Fulham haven’t scored in either of their last 2 matches. Notably, however, they were without their top scorer, Harry Wilson, for both matches. He should be available for this match against Forest.
Also, Fulham striker Raul Jiménez lost his father this week and, while this is sad news, I have often found that top professionals like Jiménez can rise to the occasion in the face of a tragedy like this. I’d love to see him get a goal in honor of his father.
I think this is a tough match to predict as far as a winner, but I love BTTS for this bet. If I had to pick a winner, I’d take the value in backing Fulham Moneyline +210.
Across the Globe:
- Detroit City FC Moneyline -140 (USA; USL Championship)
- Nashville SC to Win Either Half +105 (USA; MLS)
- Flamengo Moneyline -115 (Brazil; Serie A)
- Inter Miami Moneyline +100 (USA; MLS)
- AC Milan Moneyline -105 (Italy; Serie A)
Season Record:
Best Bets: 42-45
Across the Globe: 70-76
