Value Fighter: Nathaniel Wood, $7,500, (+200)

I really don’t understand why he’s being priced like such a clear underdog in this spot. Wood is coming off a huge win over Jose Delgado and has already shown he can derail hype trains by beating a highly regarded prospect like Morgan Charriere. Now he gets another similar opportunity against a fighter carrying plenty of buzz, but far less proven at the UFC level. Keita hasn’t even made his UFC debut yet, and the biggest early impression he has left is showing up wildly unprofessional by missing weight by three pounds. Meanwhile, Wood brings real experience, proven durability, and the comfort of fighting in his home country. That combination makes him one of the best value targets on the entire slate, and the upside at his price is just too strong to ignore.

Fade Fighter: Michael Page, $8,600, (-192)

My Fade Fighter this week is Michael “Venom” Page, and this has nothing to do with thinking he loses. In fact, I actually think he wins the fight. The problem is that his style just doesn’t translate well to DFS scoring. Unless your scoring system gives bonus points for looking cool and moving like a robot, MVP is usually a tough guy to trust in fantasy. His karate-based striking style is built around speed, distance, and timing—sticking opponents with jabs and quick shots before darting out of range like a water bug. It makes him very difficult to deal with in real life, but it also means he often doesn’t pile up the kind of volume or damage you want for a strong DFS score. On top of that, the finishing upside just hasn’t been there in the UFC, with every one of his fights in the promotion going to decision so far, which shows he’s perfectly comfortable winning his way rather than chasing a stoppage. At $8,600, that’s just too much salary to invest in a fighter who is most likely giving you a decision win without a massive fantasy total. Find him on the value graph below and that will tell you all you need to know.