Value Fighter: Mansur Abdul-Malik, $8,200, (-118)

Mansur Abdul-Malik is my value fighter this week. He brings serious finishing upside, with stoppages in four of his last five wins, giving him exactly the kind of ceiling we’re targeting at this price point. On the other side, Belgaroui is just entering his third UFC fight, still early in his development and facing a much more dangerous finisher here. Abdul-Malik is also five years younger, which only adds to the physical edge in this matchup. When you factor in his upside relative to salary, he grades out as one of the top five value plays on the entire card.

Fade Fighter: Gabriella Fernandes, $8,400, (-118)

She’s just 3-2 in her UFC career, and more importantly, four of those fights have gone to decision, with her lone finish coming via submission against Cong Wang. Simply put, she’s a decision machine, and that’s a problem at this price point. She’s currently priced nearly 30 points above her average output, which leaves almost no margin for error. On top of that, about 60% of the Tapology community is backing her opponent, so the confidence clearly isn’t overwhelming. When you combine limited finishing upside with inflated pricing, it’s a tough sell. Even if Fernandes gets her hand raised, a decision win likely won’t be enough to pay off her salary.