Champions League Best Bets #13: Quarter-Finals Leg 1 (April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026):
Welcome in to Champions League Best Bets, brought to you by Bettor In Green, where we recap the latest Champions League action and look ahead with my favorite bets for the upcoming matches.
Recap:
The Round of 16 was quite exciting this season, with 68 goals in total, 23 more goals than last season’s Round of 16.
Bodø/Glimt’s fairytale run finally came to an end, losing 5-0 in the 2nd leg to Sporting CP after going up 3-0 in the first.
Arsenal and Liverpool both got the job done, eliminating Bayer Leverkusen and Galatasaray, respectively.
Real Madrid beat Manchester City in both legs, while Barcelona crushed Newcastle in the 2nd leg, winning 7-2.
The other English clubs, Chelsea and Tottenham, also failed to advance, losing to PSG and Atlético Madrid, respectively.
Bayern Munich beat Atalanta comfortably, winning 10-2 on aggregate.
We did a bit better this week with Best Bets, going 2-1. We were close to winning all 3, but Arsenal had a goal ruled out in the 2nd half that would have won our 2nd half highest scoring half bet.
Upcoming Matches:
And then there were 8!
We are treated to some thrilling matchups in the Quarter-Finals. We have a rematch of last year’s Round of 16 between PSG and Liverpool, an all La Liga matchup between Barcelona and Atlético Madrid, an elite match between Real Madrid and Bayern Munich, and a revenge match for Arsenal against Sporting, who knocked them out of the Europa League a few years ago.
Watch every match of the UCL here in the US over on Paramount+!
Let’s get to the bets:
Best Bets:
Pick #1: Arsenal Moneyline -125 (April 7, 2026; 3:00 p.m. EST):
For our first Best Bet, I’m backing Arsenal to win on the road against Sporting CP.
Viktor Gyökeres returns to Estádio José Alvalade to face Sporting CP, the club for which he played the last 2 seasons before making the switch to Arsenal. Arsenal’s top goalscorer should feel comfortable in Lisbon and will be hungry to score against his old club.
Arsenal have been touted as one of the best clubs in Europe, especially due to their defensive structure and ability to convert set pieces. They’ve conceded the fewest goals in the EPL and the fewest in the Champions League.
Arsenal should have Gabriel in defense, alongside usual center back partner, William Saliba, despite the apparent knee injury he suffered at the weekend. He was training on Monday in advance of the match.
A few weeks ago, Arsenal were still alive in all 4 competitions. They then lost to Manchester City in the Carabao Cup final, and just lost this weekend to Southampton to exit the FA Cup.
Arsenal are now putting all of their eggs into the Premier League title race and into the Champions League. They’ll face Manchester City right after the 2nd leg of this UCL tie, so they’ll want to get a lead away from home before hosting Sporting and then having to face Manchester City in a decisive EPL match.
Sporting have been in good form, led by top-scorer Luis Suárez. However, Arsenal played a heavily-rotated squad in the FA Cup, clearly showing priority for this UCL match.
With their defensive prowess this season, I think they can pull together for an early lead in this away leg before returning to the Emirates.
Pick #2: 2-Leg SGP: Barcelona Moneyline and Over 1.5 Total Goals -143 (April 8, 2026; 3:00 p.m. EST):
For my next Best Bet, I’m looking to a repeat of one that found us success last time out, Barcelona moneyline and over 1.5 total goals, this time against Atlético Madrid.
I wrote last time about two key statistics, Barça’s near-perfect record at home this season(winning every match except for a loss to PSG) and only having one match end under 1.5 goals.
Since then, Barça have maintained their home wins record, but did have another march end under 1.5 goals.
Interestingly enough, these clubs just played one another in La Liga this past weekend, with Barcelona winning 1-2 in Madrid.
Barcelona play with a high defensive line, focusing more on attack than defense, seeking to outscore their opponent. They have scored 80 goals in La Liga this season, compared to Atléti’s 50.
Atléti, on the other hand, will rely on long balls to expose Barça, as they did for their only goal against Barça at the weekend.
With Barcelona’s home record, coupled with their high-scoring style and high defensive line, I’m backing them and have over 1.5 total goals.
Bonus: I’m also taking Barcelona Moneyline and Over 2.5 Total Goals -104 in this match as well.
Pick #3: PSG Moneyline -140 (April 8, 2026; 3:00 p.m. EST):
Finally, I’m backing last year’s Champions to get a win at home against Liverpool.
PSG are seemingly back to their best, just in time for the closing phases of the season.
They’ve won their last 4 matches, outscoring their opposition 15-3 in that span, including two comfortable wins over Chelsea.
Further, they’re at home and had an extra day of rest, playing Toulouse last Friday while Liverpool played Manchester City on Saturday.
PSG also have a relatively healthy squad, with Vitinha, Dembélé, Hakimi, Doué, an Kvaratskhelia all available.
Liverpool, on the other hand, are missing Alisson in goal.
Liverpool have had some recent struggles, only winning 1 match in their last 5, the 2nd leg against Galatasaray.
They just lost 4-0 to Manchester City in the FA Cup. Critically, star defender Virgil van Dijk looked slow compared to City, while Mo Salah looked equally slow and indecisive in attack.
Unless they get it together, particularly in defense, I expect it to be a tricky night for them, given the quality in attack for PSG.
Bonus:
Looking for a bet in the Real Madrid v Bayern Munich match? I’m dabbling on two bets, Real Madrid Over 5.5 Shots on Target +110 and Real Madrid Over 13.5 Shots -115.
In their last 10 matches, Real Madrid have had over 5.5 shots on target in 7 matches, including over that total in their last 5 matches in all competitions. They’ve had over 13.5 shots in 9 of those 10 matches.
I am only dabbling on this because I think Bayern Munich are perhaps the strongest club in the world right now, though an early goal for Bayern could lead to plenty of shots for Madrid.
Season Record:
League Phase: 12-12
Playoff Round: 1-5
Round of 16: 3-3
