UFC 327: Procházka vs Ulberg - DFS Plays and Fades
Every Lineup Fighter: Dominick Reyes, $8,300, (-650)
My every lineup fighter this week is Dominick Reyes, and this is a spot where both narrative and skill set line up perfectly. After his razor-close and highly controversial loss to Jon Jones, Reyes went through a rough stretch that had people writing him off, but he’s since bounced back and looked like his old self, dominating opponents with the striking and fight IQ that once made him a legitimate title threat. Even his most recent loss came against a top-tier opponent who’s now fighting for the belt on this very card, which speaks more to the level of competition than any real decline. Now he draws Johnny Walker, and this is where the matchup really tilts in Reyes’ favor. Reyes is the more polished, well-rounded fighter with cleaner boxing, better defensive awareness, and a much higher fight IQ, while Walker remains wildly unpredictable but increasingly fragile. The reality is Walker’s durability just hasn’t held up, and against a precise striker like Reyes, that’s a dangerous combination. If Reyes fights his fight, this is a spot where he can score big and remind everyone why he was once on the doorstep of becoming champion.
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Value Fighter: Josh Hokit, $7,800, (-130)
My value play this week is Josh Hokit, and this is exactly the type of risk you’re willing to take in DFS at this price point. Hokit’s path to MMA is unique, transitioning from the NFL gridiron into the cage, but the results have been undeniable so far—he’s finished every opponent he’s faced, showing real power and a killer instinct you can’t teach. Yes, this is a clear step up in competition, but that’s already baked into his salary, making him one of the best pure leverage plays on the slate. More importantly, this fight has strong early-finish potential, which is exactly what you’re targeting in DFS scoring. You’re not playing Hokit for safety—you’re playing him for upside, and when you need to roster underdogs to unlock the rest of your lineup, this is the kind of swing that can separate you from the field. If he lands early, you’re looking at a massive return relative to his cost.
Fade Fighter: Aaron Pico, $9,200, (-225)
This week, I’m fading Aaron Pico, and it really comes down to price versus what we’re actually getting in return. I’ll be the first to say it—I do think Pico probably wins this fight. But for DFS, that’s not enough. This matchup between two high-level Bellator standouts feels way closer to a coin flip than the odds are telling us, and that’s not the kind of spot I want to pay a premium for. When I’m spending up, I need a fighter who can dominate and hit a ceiling score, not just edge out a competitive win. If this turns into the back-and-forth fight it looks like on paper, even a victory from Pico might not be enough to pay off his salary. There are just better spots on this slate with more upside and clearer paths to big scores, especially at lower price points. So while I respect the talent and wouldn’t be shocked if he gets his hand raised, I’m staying away in DFS and letting someone else take on that risk.
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Ben is a DFS and sports betting analyst who has been creating sports content since 2022. He has been a guest speaker at the Fantasy Football Expo located in Canton, Ohio and is known for his one-of-a-kind breakout and bust grading system that helps fantasy managers spot sleepers and avoid traps before the market catches on.
BettorGreen Creator since 2022