UFC Fight Night : Burns vs Malott - DFS Plays and Fades
Every Lineup Fighter: Gokhan Saricam $8,500, (-155)
In a heavyweight matchup where one punch can change everything, Saricam brings the kind of size and finishing upside that is hard to ignore, stepping in with roughly a 60-pound advantage over Tanner Boser. Boser has far more UFC experience, but his career has been inconsistent and he simply looks undersized for this division. It feels clear he was added to this Canadian card for local interest, but matchup-wise the physical disadvantages are real. Saricam has the much higher DFS ceiling because if he wins, it likely comes through damage or a finish, while Boser’s cleaner path is surviving and trying to outpoint him over three rounds. In DFS, I want the heavyweight with knockout upside and slate-breaking potential, making Saricam an elite every-lineup target this week.
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Value Fighter: Robert Valentin, $8,300, (-148)
If you only look at the historical value charts, Valentin grades out poorly for this salary range, but this matchup feels like a spot where the numbers may lag behind the reality of the situation. Valentin enters at 0-3 in the UFC after bursting onto the scene with an electric run on The Ultimate Fighter, and this feels like a clear last-chance opportunity from the UFC to get him back in the win column. If he loses here, roster security becomes a real concern, so urgency should be at an all-time high. Across from him is Julien Leblanc, whose regional résumé does not compare to UFC-level experience. Valentin has faced the tougher road, carries the higher upside, and should be the more dangerous athlete everywhere this fight goes. I see this ending in a finish for Valentin, giving him the kind of low-cost scoring upside that can swing DFS contests. I’m confident in the spot and would use him in DFS while also backing him on the sportsbooks.
Fade Fighter: Jamey Lyn-Horth, $8,900, (-162)
I simply can’t justify paying this kind of salary for a fighter with this profile. Five of her six professional fights have come by decision, which immediately caps the DFS upside, and despite the premium price tag she is only around a modest -148 favorite on the moneyline. That is not the type of betting support I want attached to one of the most expensive fighters on the slate. She is the highest-priced fighter on this card who still falls into the poor scoring range and honestly looks about $1,000 overpriced for what she brings in fantasy terms. Add in an over 2.5 rounds line sitting around -520, which strongly suggests a slow-paced fight likely headed deep into the scorecards, and this matchup offers very little finishing equity or ceiling on either side. There is simply too much salary tied up in a low-upside spot, and you’re far better off allocating that money elsewhere.
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Ben is a DFS and sports betting analyst who has been creating sports content since 2022. He has been a guest speaker at the Fantasy Football Expo located in Canton, Ohio and is known for his one-of-a-kind breakout and bust grading system that helps fantasy managers spot sleepers and avoid traps before the market catches on.
BettorGreen Creator since 2022
