Welcome to English Premier League Best Bets, a Bettor in Green Article Series where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matchweek.

For an overview of what to expect in this Series, check out my 2025/26 EPL Season Preview and Futures article here.

Recap:

The biggest pieces of news that happened this week involve the clubs from North London, Arsenal and Spurs.

The title race is back on, as Arsenal lost to Bournemouth while Manchester City beat Chelsea. Arsenal now sit only 6 points ahead of City, though City have a game-in-hand.

If City beat Arsenal this weekend, then win their game-in-hand midweek against Burnley, they’ll be tied at the top, with goal difference as the tiebreaker for who sits at the top.

At the bottom, Spurs lost against Sunderland, while West Ham beat Wolves. This put Spurs truly into the bottom 3, with bookies now favoring them to be the final club to be relegated, along with Wolves and Burnley.

In other news, Leeds beat Manchester United in the Roses Rivalry, their first win at Old Trafford since 1981.

It was a really poor week for my bets, going 1-2 for Best Bets, only winning with Manchester City.

Across the Globe was even worse, losing all 5. It was a bit frustrating, as 4 of the 5 ended in draws, with our bets failing to get over the line.

Upcoming Matches:

If you’re into Fantasy Premier League, we have a double gameweek this week, where 6 teams play twice, once at the weekend and again on Tuesday or Wednesday.

For betting, however, I’m just looking at the matches this weekend, then will put out another article on Monday, in advance of the early matchweek 34 matches on Tuesday and Wednesday.

We have a few huge matches this weekend, with the biggest being a battle between the top 2, as Manchester City host Arsenal. If City win, they’ll be within striking distance of the title, as they have played one less match than Arsenal, which will be played against Burnley on Wednesday.

Another big match is the Merseyside Derby between Everton and Liverpool, the first one at Everton’s new stadium.

Other notable matches include Spurs hosting Brighton, the old club of new Spurs’ boss, Roberto De Zerbi, and a top-6 clash between Chelsea and Manchester United.

The weekend ends on Monday with a London Derby between Crystal Palace and West Ham United.

Let’s get to the bets:

Best Bets:

Pick #1: 2-Leg SGP: Leeds United Moneyline and Under 4.5 Total Goals -106 (April 18, 2026; 10:00 a.m. EST):

First up, I’m looking at a team close to the relegation zone, Leeds, taking on a team firmly within it, Wolves.

Leeds have started to distance themselves from the relegation zone by picking up some points, now sitting 6 points ahead of Spurs in that 3rd and final relegation spot.

They have not lost in 5 matches in all competitions, though 2 of those were FA Cup matches. They are fresh off an away win against Manchester United.

Wolves had started to pick up some form, drawing with Arsenal and beating Aston Villa and Liverpool, but have not won their last 3 in all competitions. They did draw at Brentford, but just recently lost 4-0 to West Ham.

Noah Okafor has been in fine form for Leeds, with 5 goal contributions in his last 5 matches. Dominic Calvert-Lewin also has looked dangerous as of late, even if not getting the goal or assist.

And with Leeds still scrapping to secure safety, I expect them to be a little too tough for Wolves this week.

Additionally, Leeds have not had any of their last 15 matches end with over 4.5 total goals. Similarly, Wolves have only had 1 of their last 20 end over 4.5, an FA Cup match against 4th-tier Shrewsbury Town.

Pick #2: Liverpool Moneyline +120 (April 19, 2026; 9:00 a.m. EST):

Next, I’m looking to the Merseyside Derby, backing Liverpool to win in Everton’s new stadium.

They say form goes out the window for Derby matches, with the rivalry being the largest motivating factor. While I agree with this, and think Everton will want to impress at their new stadium, there are a few factors I like about this Liverpool side.

First, they’re now singularly motivated in the Premier League after losing to PSG in the Champions League. They currently sit 5th, which will be good enough to qualify for the Champions League next season, though they’re only 4 points ahead of Chelsea in 6th.

Everton are in 8th and will also be seeking to qualify for a European competition, either Europa League or Conference League.

Liverpool have struggled as of late, losing 4 of their last 5 matches in all competitions. However, that includes an FA Cup match against Manchester City and 2 matches against PSG in the Champions League, both tough opponents.

While Everton are nothing to scoff at, they are not on the same level as PSG or Man City.

Liverpool are still missing Alisson in goal, though Mamardashvili has had 5 matches (plus 2 matches for his national team, Georgia) to get up to speed.

Liverpool will also be without Hugo Ekitiké in attack, after suffering an Achilles injury against PSG. However, they now have their $150 million striker, Alexander Isak back in the lineup, along with youngster Rio Ngumoha, who was influential in both goals in Liverpool’s last EPL match against Fulham, scoring the first and helping create the second.

Mo Salah will also be hoping to get on the scoresheet, as he continues his farewell tour with Liverpool before leaving the club this summer.

While Everton have played well and have Beto and Dewsbury-Hall in fine form, they haven’t been particularly strong at home this season (6-4-6) and have a much lower expected goals (xG) than Liverpool (38.7 and 52.8, respectively).

One of the biggest standout stats for Everton is their xG conceded of 47.9, with them actually conceding only 37. A large part of this is goalkeeper Jordan Pickford, who averages 2.75 saves per match, but it shows that Everton are allowing the opposition to get decent chances.

Pick #3: Manchester City Moneyline -120 (April 19, 2026; 11:30 a.m. EST):

For our final Best Bet, I’m looking at the biggest match of the weekend, the clash between the top 2, Manchester City and Arsenal.

Admittedly, I think this could be a tricky affair, and even a draw is a decent result for Arsenal in the title race, so I foresee a relatively cagey and slow match to start off. However, Arsenal manager, Arteta, has stated his team won’t be playing for a draw.

These clubs recently squared off at Wembley Stadium in the Carabao Cup final, with City winning 0-2. That match also started off slow in the first half.

Arsenal have relied on defensive stability this season, with the difference in the big matches coming from set pieces.

One reason I like this bet is because Arsenal are coming off a Champions League match against Sporting CP. Arsenal had a 1-goal advantage heading into that match, so they held on to a 0-0 draw at home against Sporting, only having 1 shot on target.

Before that, they lost the Carabao Cup final, crashed out of the FA Cup to 2nd-tier Southampton, and lost to Bournemouth last week in the EPL. The mental fatigue is looking like it’s starting to set in.

Admittedly, Arsenal have been focusing primarily on the EPL and a deep run in the Champions League, which is now all they have left. They’ll see this as a title-deciding match, but so will City.

City boss Pep Guardiola has admitted that the title will be over unless they win this weekend. Over the last several years, City have dialed up the results in this last part of the season, where Arsenal has a recent history of underperforming at this time of year.

With City figuring out how to beat Arsenal only a few weeks ago, and now playing at home, I think they’ll find a way to beat Arsenal and give us a thrilling title race.

Arsenal will be without Bukayo Saka, Noni Madueke, and Martin Ødegaard. City may be without Nico O’Reilly, who scored twice in the Carabao Cup final, but will have Haaland, Cherki, Semenyo, and Doku fit to form a strong attack.

Across the Globe:

• Melbourne City Moneyline +110 (Australia; A-League)
• Borussia Dortmund to Win Either Half -135 (Germany; Bundesliga)
• Atlético Madrid Moneyline -125 (Spain; Copa del Rey Final)
• Nashville SC Moneyline +115 (USA; MLS)
• 2-Leg Parlay: Palmeiras and RB Bragantino Moneylines +142 (Brazil; Serie A)

Season Record:

Best Bets: 45-51

Across the Globe: 76-84