Welcome in to Champions League Best Bets, brought to you by Bettor In Green, where we recap the latest Champions League action and look ahead with my favorite bets for the upcoming matches.

Recap:

If you missed it, the first leg between PSG and Bayern Munich absolutely lived up to the hype. Some are saying it is arguably the most enjoyable football match they’ve seen in quite some time.

Something about the Semi-Finals is magical, as we see the best teams playing 180 minutes of top-level football. Like Barcelona vs Inter Milan last year, this PSG vs Bayern Munich tie is looking likely to be one of the most exciting matchups in the history of the competition.

That match ended 5-4, with PSG taking the 1-goal advantage at home, before playing the 2nd leg in Munich.

While there weren’t as many goals in the Atlético Madrid vs Arsenal match, there was still plenty of excitement. There was some controversy over penalty decisions, with both sides scoring their only goal from a penalty, though the match still offered plenty of back-and-forth action.

We hit all 3 Best Bets, winning with our Kvaratskhelia player prop again, with BTTS in the 2nd half of PSG/Bayern, and under 1.5 team total goals for both Atlético Madrid and Arsenal.

Upcoming Matches:

Now come the return legs.

Can PSG hold on to their 1-goal advantage as they travel to Allianz Arena in Munich? Are we in for another high-scoring thriller?

Can Arsenal win at home and make their way to the final? Or will Atlético Madrid snuff out Arsenal’s hopes of European Glory? Neither club has won the UEFA Champions League and will look to book their ticket to the final!

If you’re in the US, leave work early (or put it on at the office, we won’t tell your boss) and find a way to watch these matches. You can watch every match of the UCL here in the US over on Paramount+, along with a special watch-along with David Beckham for these 2nd leg matches.

Let’s get to the bets:

Best Bets:

Pick #1: Atlético Madrid 11+ Shots +100 (May 5, 2026; 3:00 p.m. EST):

For the first match, I am staying away from the moneyline and backing a shots prop, with Atléti to get 11+ shots.

The best line I’ve found for this is over at FanDuel, with DraftKings currently offering 9+ shots at -160 and Bet365 offering 9+ at -138 (which I also like, for those more risk-averse), and TheScore offering 12+ shots for even odds.

You might be thinking, why take a shots over for two clubs who play a pragmatic and defensive style? This matchup is being touted as the Battle of Haram Ball, with both sides being defensively sound, leading us to bet both teams under 1.5 goals last week, which hit.

However, the match itself was much more back-and-forth than I had imagined. Both sides had their share of chances, with David Raya having 3 saves. Atlético Madrid took 18 shots, with only 4 of those being on target.

In their last 15 matches, they’ve had 10 matches hit 11+ shots and 5 go under. However, of those 5, 3 matches were against Barcelona, who play a drastically different style to Arsenal.

In their last 2 matches, they’ve averaged 19 shots per match.

My biggest fear here is that Atléti go up by a goal or two early, then try to sit back and defend. If the match remains tied, or if they are chasing an early Arsenal lead, they should easily have 11 shots.

Further, while Arsenal had to play an important match in their Premier League title race this weekend, Atléti was able to rotate the entire squad and should have a fit and refreshed team for this match.

Feeling more risk-averse? Take Atlético Madrid 9+ Shots -138 over at Bet365.

Pick #2: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (PSG) to Score or Assist +105 (May 6, 2026; 3:00 p.m. EST):

I backed this bet for 2 weeks in a row now, each being successful. Will it hit 3 weeks in a row?

The stats on Kvaratskhelia’s form in the UCL are just too good to pass up. He’s now played in 14 of PSG’s 15 UCL matches, with a goal contribution in 11 of those 14.

As we discussed last time, Kvaratskhelia has been on fire in the Champions League this season. He’s played in 13 of PSG’s 14 UCL matches and has a goal contribution in 10 of those 13.

He has 10 goals and 5 assists this UCL campaign, including 2 goals in the first leg against Bayern Munich.

He’s also scored or assisted in each of the last 6 matches in which he has played, with 6 goals and 2 assists in that stretch. He has a goal contribution in 8 of his last 10 matches, and has one in 6 of the 7 UCL knockout games this season.

While Bayern are a great team, their attacking prowess is their strongest asset, with defensive resilience coming secondary to overwhelming attack. That was on full display in the 1st leg, as they scored 4 but conceded 5.

With these stats and these favorable odds, I’m backing Kvaratskhelia even away at the Allianz against one of the strongest clubs in Europe at the moment.

Pick #3: Bayern Munich to Advance -110 (May 6, 2026; 3:00 p.m. EST):

Finally, I’m picking a side in the big match between PSG and Bayern Munich, taking Bayern Munich to Advance, despite their 1-goal deficit. 

It is tough to pick between these Super Clubs, but I have been quite high on Bayern Munich all season. Olise has been brilliant, Harry Kane is building a Ballon d’Or-worthy season, and Luis Diaz has also put up great numbers this season.

There’s been a lot of talk about PSG and the after-effects of playing in the Club World Cup last summer rather than taking a break and getting a normal preseason. The squad has played a ton of matches at a high level and, while I don’t think it’s as big of an issue as the media claims, they did let a 5-2 lead slip to 5-4 in the 2nd half last week against Bayern.

Interestingly enough, both clubs had a draw this weekend in their domestic leagues, with both teams doing significant rotation. Bayern did have to throw the big guns on for the 2nd half to get a result, however.

Looking solely at momentum, Bayern have it following the way they ended the 1st leg, how they came back at the weekend in the Bundesliga, and now heading into this match at home, chasing a 1-goal deficit.

With that momentum, I expect them to take it all the way to the final, though I am confident PSG will put up a fight the whole way. 

One thing is certain, this is set to be an incredible match, no matter how it goes.

Season Record:

League Phase: 12-12

Playoff Round: 1-5

Round of 16: 3-3

Quarter-Finals: 4-2

Semi-Finals: 3-0