UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland - DFS Plays and Fades
Every Lineup Fighter: Khamzat Chimaev, $9,500, (-575)
Khamzat Chimaev is my Every Lineup Fighter this week and I’m sticking to it, even after watching Sean Strickland starch Fluffy Hernandez. I’ll admit that KO made me pause for a second because Sean looked sharp and aggressive, but this matchup is completely different stylistically. Fluffy let Sean dictate the pace way too much and spent most of the fight hesitating on the outside instead of creating the chaos needed to get into his grappling. That’s just not how Khamzat fights. Khamzat is going to pressure instantly, force ugly exchanges, and turn this into the kind of fight Sean hates dealing with. We just watched Khamzat dominate DDP with elite wrestling and suffocating control to take the belt, and once he gets his hands locked around you it becomes a completely different sport.
The biggest key for Strickland is keeping the cage to HIS back. Sean’s best chance is using the fence to fight hands, widen his base, and make those takedown entries harder on Khamzat. The problem is Khamzat knows exactly what kind of fight he wants here and he’s not going to play Sean’s striking game for extended periods. Fluffy looked nervous to engage because of Sean’s boxing, but Khamzat has zero fear walking into the fire and has years of familiarity with Sean from their training partner days. Add in all the trash talk from Strickland calling him a “goat f*****” and this feels like a dangerous recipe for Sean. I think Khamzat comes out angry, gets the grappling going early, and finishes Strickland in brutal fashion while putting up a massive DFS score in the process. He put up a whopping 242 POINTS in his last outing.
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Value Fighter: Joshua Van, $7,500, (+140)
Joshua Van is one of my favorite value plays on the entire card because I genuinely don’t understand where all this sudden disrespect is coming from. Everybody loved Van when he was climbing the rankings, but the second he got his title shot the narrative flipped because Pantoja lost the belt in a freak accident. Somehow people are acting like that’s Van’s fault or like he didn’t earn his opportunity. Meanwhile, all Van has done is go out there and put on absolute wars while looking like one of the cleanest strikers in the division. That fight against Brandon Royval was one of the fights of the year and honestly the performance alone justified the hype. Landing over 200 significant strikes in a high-paced fight against a guy like Royval is insane no matter the weight class.
On the other side, I think Tatsuro Taira is getting a little overrated by the public right now. The Alex Perez fight was way closer than people remember before the injury happened, and then he followed it up by losing to Royval. People keep talking about Taira like he’s this untouchable future champ, but his best UFC win is probably a version of Moreno that’s clearly older and slowing down a bit. Van meanwhile fights at an absurd pace and lands nearly six more strikes per minute than Taira. In DFS, that kind of volume matters a ton, especially if this turns into a competitive five-round fight. If this goes to a decision, I want the busier striker every single time, and Van also has the kind of finishing upside that can completely break a slate. At his price, I think he’s one of the best point-per-dollar plays on the board and our value graph below agrees.
Fade Fighter: Jared Gordon, $9,300, (-310)
Jared Gordon is my fade fighter this week and honestly it has way more to do with the price than the actual matchup. Gordon could absolutely win this fight, but at this salary he’s sitting right in that yellow danger zone where the risk just outweighs the reward for me. We’re talking about a fight between two veterans in the twilight of their careers with Gordon at 37 and Jim Miller somehow still grinding it out at 42 years old. At this stage, weird stuff happens in fights all the time and I’m not looking to pay a premium price tag in what feels a lot closer to a coin flip than the salaries suggest.
Miller also still has some sneaky advantages here, especially with the reach edge and the fact that he’s one of the craftiest submission threats in the division even at his age. Gordon usually needs volume and control time to really pay off in DFS, but if this turns into a slower-paced veteran fight there’s a real chance neither guy scores especially well. That’s the kind of matchup I try to avoid entirely when someone is priced this aggressively. Gordon can definitely win, but I don’t see enough upside to justify eating that salary when there are safer fighters with way better finishing potential elsewhere on the card.
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Ben is a DFS and sports betting analyst who has been creating sports content since 2022. He has been a guest speaker at the Fantasy Football Expo located in Canton, Ohio and is known for his one-of-a-kind breakout and bust grading system that helps fantasy managers spot sleepers and avoid traps before the market catches on.
BettorGreen Creator since 2022
